Posted on 09/16/2005 10:45:57 AM PDT by UCAL
Democratic strategists and Stuart Rothenberg predict House Democrats will make significant gains, six seats or more, but probably not enough to capture the chamber.
Analyst Rothenberg said declines in Congress' job-approval polls and increased dissatisfaction with the country's direction have created negative "atmospherics" that could benefit Democrats.
"With President Bush's ratings battered by the war in Iraq, high gas prices and public dissatisfaction with the economy, 2006 looks to be a golden opportunity for House Democrats," Mr. Rothenberg told clients.
A growing chorus of pundits and Democratic strategists point to poll numbers, such as this week's by Newsweek, which says 38% of registered voters would vote for a Republican if congressional elections were today.
Republican strategists say such generic polls ignore polling numbers showing voters strongly approve of their own members of Congress by 61% to 32%, and that a lot can change in 14 months.
Democrats would need a gain of 15 seats to win back control; most analysts say that is beyond their reach because there are so few competitive races. Rothenberg counts only 37 seats "in play" -- 26 Republican and 11 Democrat held.
The NRCC counts 32 competitive races, but Mr. Forti said "that means Democrats have to win 93% of those races. Based on past history, that's going to be impossible for them."
Even so, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, pointing to an aggressive candidate recruitment, is convinced Republicans are on the defensive this election cycle.
Mr. Burton declined to say how many seats Democrats expect to pick up next year, but said "as things stand now, support for the Republican Congress is very low."
Still, Mr. Forti said it's a long time between now and the 2006 elections, when the political environment could change dramatically.
(Excerpt) Read more at washtimes.com ...
True, but there may be a new twist to it now. Whats the chances that blacks, having been deserted by demokkkrats and left to drown in the hurricane, will realize that demokkkrats only care about them on election day? Look at the difference. Election day, 1996. 165,000 votes out of nawlins, when landrieu was in that tight race., 3 days before katrina, no buses.
Yep! Where do you suppose the term "RINO" came from? Totally defeated Democrats.
The fun part of this chapter is to watch as the so-called opposition goes on to immolate themselves with more bad responses that only seal their fate forever.
I would presume a "Democtratic Strategist" is paid a consulting fee. How smart would the Democratic Strategist be if he called them a bunch of losers, got fired and missed out another 14 months of consutling fees?
To quote a FReeper:
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
*Wheeze*
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
This is somewhat akin to asking a football coach what kind of season he's going to have. The coach will NEVER say his team is going to get stomped. Instead he'll brag about the progress the team has made, that he has high hopes for the coming season, etc. It's the same with this clown. You don't really expect him to tell the truth, that his party is so out of touch with mainstream America that it resembles a blinfolded man trying to hit a pinata ten feet off the ground with an eight foot pole...
EXACTLY! All those numbers are so bogus. Like you said, the same people that predict dems winning seats, and that put up Bush's approval ratings for that mater, are the same ones that said Kerry was sure to take a comfortable win over Bush last November, and yet, reality once again prevails. 8)
Very good question...back in 1994 the GOP promised a lot of things, but time has proven (1) that they have failed to deliver or (2) they were lying from the beginning. Remember when they forced President Clinton to say "the era of big government is over"?
Uh-huh...yeah, right.
The era of big government is JUST BEGINNING, folks--& President Bush is leading the way.
Not only are they going to lose seats in the House, they are going to lose a Senate seat in Florida and a Governorship in Virginia.
These guys are killin' me--I'm going to send them a bill for a new keyboard and a monitor.
***
If I could just invent a really good keyboard and monitor protector and sell it to Freepers, I'd be rich!!!!
and how do we know that? just because you say so doesn't make it true....where's the pics....where's the info from the military?????
I'll be more than happy to be your tax CPA, and make sure that you get each and every tax break you're allowed!
The Washington Post By: Juliet Eilperin
March 09, 2003
For House, Democrats Need Discontent
< Snip >
"A year ago, I could say the Democrats were close enough to 218 so they could cherry-pick seats to get them to the majority," said Stuart Rothenberg, who edits the Rothenberg Political Report. "I can't make the case now. Basically, they need voters to make a decision to change party control of the House."
Some of those who are not thrilled with Pres. Bush could be conservatives who are well more conservative than the President (this would include me), but I would never vote Dem or third party (might as well vote Dem) so I think the Dems are in for a surprise in 2006.
I think they will lose seats myself.
"...let one Dimocrat run on the platform of cutting taxes, and I'd vote for him..."
You would believe him? Sigh, I guess there are still some being born...
"...they've got Howard Dean..."
Howard Dean is a real asset...
...for Republicans!
The Democrats probably will pick up seats. The Democrats would've gained seats in 2004 had it not been for Tom Delay's gerrymandering. I doubt Pelosi will be Speaker anytime soon, but the six year itch is coming.
I'll be surprised if they hold the 11. The dims have no sense at all as to how poorly there behavior plays with the average voter and turns them off. They play to a shrinking base and turnoff more and more of the rest of the voters with the same results. They lose more seats.
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