Posted on 09/16/2005 10:45:57 AM PDT by UCAL
Democratic strategists and Stuart Rothenberg predict House Democrats will make significant gains, six seats or more, but probably not enough to capture the chamber.
Analyst Rothenberg said declines in Congress' job-approval polls and increased dissatisfaction with the country's direction have created negative "atmospherics" that could benefit Democrats.
"With President Bush's ratings battered by the war in Iraq, high gas prices and public dissatisfaction with the economy, 2006 looks to be a golden opportunity for House Democrats," Mr. Rothenberg told clients.
A growing chorus of pundits and Democratic strategists point to poll numbers, such as this week's by Newsweek, which says 38% of registered voters would vote for a Republican if congressional elections were today.
Republican strategists say such generic polls ignore polling numbers showing voters strongly approve of their own members of Congress by 61% to 32%, and that a lot can change in 14 months.
Democrats would need a gain of 15 seats to win back control; most analysts say that is beyond their reach because there are so few competitive races. Rothenberg counts only 37 seats "in play" -- 26 Republican and 11 Democrat held.
The NRCC counts 32 competitive races, but Mr. Forti said "that means Democrats have to win 93% of those races. Based on past history, that's going to be impossible for them."
Even so, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, pointing to an aggressive candidate recruitment, is convinced Republicans are on the defensive this election cycle.
Mr. Burton declined to say how many seats Democrats expect to pick up next year, but said "as things stand now, support for the Republican Congress is very low."
Still, Mr. Forti said it's a long time between now and the 2006 elections, when the political environment could change dramatically.
(Excerpt) Read more at washtimes.com ...
Let's see if that is true. Is your current representative a republican? If so, do you plan on voting for whoever the democrat is that is running against them?
Or if you have a democrat representative -- are you planning to vote for them, or to vote for the republican opponent?
Just asking...
Actually, with every Democratic member of Congress, working in concert with the MSM, committed to accomplishing NOTHING other than the destruction of the President specifically and Republicans is general, those sorts of gains sound rather pathetic.
Factor in the fact that there were similar projections leading up to the last midterm elections, and they turned out to be pur wishful thinking, and the Democrats look like the blatant losers they are.
...Everyone hates other people's congress men and women but love their own...
I spend most of my time thinking up ever more horrible things that I can wish to happen to my Senators and Congresscritters.
Nothing I can think of is bad enough for them.
And I'm a pretty nasty guy.
Hey, the Seahawks could eventually and accidentally draft some dude out of Brigham Young University who would lead them to the Super Bowl (at New Orleans of course).
Rothenberg?
Yea ok
Stop if you heard this before
Only problem is that elections are not today.
These guys are killin' me--I'm going to send them a bill for a new keyboard and a monitor.
Louisiana Democrats had better watch out, lest their constituents remain in Texas, and other parts. At the employment agency that I work at, we've filled several positions for NOLA residents, sharp/hard-working people all. A few months in the Metroplex, and I guarantee that 80% won't be going back. Especially when they see that no state income tax is withheld from their checks.
Only problem is that elections are not today.
There's one other problem for the Democrats: that 38% that they cite will account for more than 50% of those registered voters who will actually vote.
Statistics can be such a B-I-ITCH when they go against you.
Some reports on Democratic candidate recruitment in the Post-Katrina era:
"Last week, Las Vegas attorney Stan Hunterton announced he wasn't going to challenge [U.S. Rep. Jon] Porter, a Republican in his second term. ... Democrats already have been rejected by weatherman Nate Tannenbaum, and who knows which other television personalities Sen. Harry Reid has tapped this time." (Las Vegas Review-Journal, 9/12/05)
Bucks County businesswoman Robin Wiessmann today announced that she would not seek the Democratic nomination for the Pennsylvania 8th Congressional District, a seat currently held by Mike Fitzpatrick. ...'This is just not the right time for me to put my hat in the ring.'[said Wiessmann]." (Wiessmann Press Release, 9/8/05)
"Former state Treasurer Barbara Hafer announced last week that she will not run for Congress (PA-18)in 2006." (Roll Call, 9/8/05)
"Problems that will make the Democrats hide under their beds"
My essay explaining the problems the rats face. It was posted 9/4/05.
They have 9 members elected with 53% or less. We have 7. They have no chance of making gains. Rothenberg gets paid to lie to the rank and file rats, to "buck them up". I just tell the truth free of charge.
Without Terry Mcauliff who knows?--the Democrats may actually hire a competent national leader.
Yeah right. This proves that liberals are indeed crack heads. I predict that the GOP will pick up three to five seats in the House, and two to four in the Senate. Perhaps more in the House if the LA public takes out their frustration at their local and state elected officials out on them at the polls next November. The democrats simply haven't done anything to deserve winning seats. And the conservative majority has stuck to its guns, hasn't had any scandals, and has stayed true to themselves and had a minimum if infighting, while the democrats keep on feeding on each other.
In the interim, they've got Howard Dean, so, no real change yet.
They will all run as Republicans
(Denny Crane: "Sometimes you can only look for answers from God and failing that... and Fox News".)
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