Posted on 09/14/2005 10:05:59 AM PDT by GermanBusiness
The American left is going to be squealing like a pig...or more likely ignoring the situation as the Germans elect a pro-Bush government, possibly by a landslide in Sunday's national elections.
Today's poll results have the CDU at 42% against the SPD's 32% with the conservative FDP at 7% and the leftist Greens at 7% and the Communists at 8%. Remember, just like in an American state, it is a winner take all event at least for the direct vote for a specific parliament candidate in each district. With a ten point advantage overall, the CDU could theoretically win every directly elected seat in parliament.
The Communists are having a temper tantrum like the Naderites in 2000. They want to sacrifice this election in order to destroy the center-left Schroeder and Joschke Fischer who only talked about being anti-American but still have German troops in Afghanistan and allow the USA to use Germany as an airport, hospital station and depot for the war in the middle east.
All districts in Germany do not vote uniformly. There are "Blue States" and "Red States" in Germany...but it goes down to the Congressional District level. Just like we looked for the magic number 271 for Bush's Electoral College, the magic number in Germany will be 300 seats in a 600 seat parliament. There are also two votes in Germany: one for the person actually running in that district and one for a political party. Half of parliament is directly elected and the other half is appointed in proportion to the percentage of votes a given party received in the election as long as the party received at least 5% of the vote.
Because many districts are homogenous, the CDU/FDP Conservative Bloc may not get a landslide victory but, rather, win with a small majority similar to the poll results (the polls actually have them at 49% but the left has less).
But, since the CDU is at 42% opposed to the 32% SPD...we could see a landslide with traditional left wing neighborhoods splitting so heavily between the commies and the liberals and greens... that a CDU with even 30% support in such districts could win.
Keep in mind also: the SPD and Greens regard the Communists as hated enemies who threaten their existence in the same way that Nader threatened the Democrats. A parliament with a 4% contingent of indirectly elected communists will mean that the regular liberals will be wedged between enemies and powerless.
The only danger is that the SPD/Greens/Communists end up with their current 48% winning the day combined against a low turnout for conservative voters or super Kerry style turnout for liberals. Then Schroeder could remain Chancellor if he actually allied with the commies...which is entirely possible!
There are conservative ads in Germany warning against this Red-Red-Green Coalition which would be a nightmare for us all. Germany would have to veer way off to the left and pull troops out of Afghanistan at the least.
Fortunately...I totally doubt this will happen because of the winner take all effect of the directly elected half of parliament as compared to the proportional seat alottment of the other half of parliament. I see a conservative earthquake.
"Anyone in tune with the German elections ..?"
Nein!
I've been following things, and I think Germany is finally ready to address what has been causing their unemployment and economic problems.
I hope your right. I remember the last election. Schroder played the anti-Bush card and he managed to cling onto power. But, I'm wishing for the best.
I have several friends who live there and I have been watching the debates and coverage....it is very exciting for the conservatives......
I like much about Angela Merkel(sp?).....she sounds tough and I loved it when she said that she would renew relations with the USA and keep our differences behind closed doors where they have always been, never aired in public.
Anyway, will be watching the election......
The Germans are saying "Go Angie Go". There are a lot of liberal women who will vote for her as the first female leader in the history of Germany.
We just need to be careful not to have President Bush threaten war between now and Sunday. :-)
I could not find the article - I assume it's in German - can you post a link please?
Germans have always loved communism. Tough to believe they will vote conservative.
LOL! Point taken! Hopefully Bush can contain himself!
I could care less about Germany. They don't give a dam about our country. Perhaps their still bitter about WWII??
Thank you for your analysis. I am in tune to all European (and western nations, ie, Canada, Australia, Kiwis) elections. It is an interesting dynamic in Europe that I think is vastly oversimplified here in the States. The fact that a more pro-US/conservative government may win in Germany should attest to that.
Marx was German after all....... I'm hoping for Merkel's election as it will represent a sea-change in German politics.
ping
Marx lived in Britain, wrote for a NY paper and was an enthusiastic supporter of Lincoln during the Civil War.
The Germans are having an election?
"Germans have always loved communism."
Not during the 1930's and early 40's.
Owl_Eagle
(If what I just wrote makes you sad or angry,
IMO, this is a pretty even-handed appraisal
www.aicgs.org/c/stokeselec05.shtml
Since the US is several hours behind the German time zone, I guess that by Sunday night (US time) I will know who won.
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