Posted on 09/14/2005 10:05:59 AM PDT by GermanBusiness
The American left is going to be squealing like a pig...or more likely ignoring the situation as the Germans elect a pro-Bush government, possibly by a landslide in Sunday's national elections.
Today's poll results have the CDU at 42% against the SPD's 32% with the conservative FDP at 7% and the leftist Greens at 7% and the Communists at 8%. Remember, just like in an American state, it is a winner take all event at least for the direct vote for a specific parliament candidate in each district. With a ten point advantage overall, the CDU could theoretically win every directly elected seat in parliament.
The Communists are having a temper tantrum like the Naderites in 2000. They want to sacrifice this election in order to destroy the center-left Schroeder and Joschke Fischer who only talked about being anti-American but still have German troops in Afghanistan and allow the USA to use Germany as an airport, hospital station and depot for the war in the middle east.
All districts in Germany do not vote uniformly. There are "Blue States" and "Red States" in Germany...but it goes down to the Congressional District level. Just like we looked for the magic number 271 for Bush's Electoral College, the magic number in Germany will be 300 seats in a 600 seat parliament. There are also two votes in Germany: one for the person actually running in that district and one for a political party. Half of parliament is directly elected and the other half is appointed in proportion to the percentage of votes a given party received in the election as long as the party received at least 5% of the vote.
Because many districts are homogenous, the CDU/FDP Conservative Bloc may not get a landslide victory but, rather, win with a small majority similar to the poll results (the polls actually have them at 49% but the left has less).
But, since the CDU is at 42% opposed to the 32% SPD...we could see a landslide with traditional left wing neighborhoods splitting so heavily between the commies and the liberals and greens... that a CDU with even 30% support in such districts could win.
Keep in mind also: the SPD and Greens regard the Communists as hated enemies who threaten their existence in the same way that Nader threatened the Democrats. A parliament with a 4% contingent of indirectly elected communists will mean that the regular liberals will be wedged between enemies and powerless.
The only danger is that the SPD/Greens/Communists end up with their current 48% winning the day combined against a low turnout for conservative voters or super Kerry style turnout for liberals. Then Schroeder could remain Chancellor if he actually allied with the commies...which is entirely possible!
There are conservative ads in Germany warning against this Red-Red-Green Coalition which would be a nightmare for us all. Germany would have to veer way off to the left and pull troops out of Afghanistan at the least.
Fortunately...I totally doubt this will happen because of the winner take all effect of the directly elected half of parliament as compared to the proportional seat alottment of the other half of parliament. I see a conservative earthquake.
"We just need to be careful not to have President Bush threaten war between now and Sunday. :-)"
Can we bomb Iran on Sept 19th? ;)
"Spiegel, like CNN, has updated to lead with the Baghdad attacks instead of the poll results."
Is this a brand new poll in Germany, or is it the GMS poll from yesterday?
[Schroder will continue to lose support as the effect of the debate wears off]
You mean "as the effect of the liberal spin of the debate wears off" and people come to their senses.
Go to www.blog4berlin.de to see a livelyh debate inside Germany...between Americans. The Germans don't know how to argue against leftist ideology. They are only instinctively voting against it in this election. They are not good at eloquently attacking leftism as a religion like the Republicans have been able to do since 9-11.
There are lots of amusingly ignorant postings about Germany here from people who haven't the faintest idea. The one about the Germans loving Communism has to be the funniest...
Schröder will NOT win this election; he will be retired as of Sunday night. Merkel will definitely be Chancellor. However, the big question is, who will she be in coalition with? The Free Democrats with their shirt-lifting joke figure of a chairman, or the Social Democrats? Both these two parties have rejected the flat-tax suggestions of Kirchhof, which have gone down like a lead balloon and seriously compromised Merkel's campaign. The proposal has too many enemies in Merkel's own party too. So it's a non-starter. Forget about any major change in foreign policy too: Merkel will say no to US requests for assistance more nicely. Turkey can also bury its hopes of joining the EU, which the US and UK governments had been advocating. Tax increases will come whoever wins. Germany's most pressing problem is unemployment. Whether Merkel can change this remains to be seen. There will be more tightening up on terrorism, but the present minister is already doing a good job there. Merkel will have to work with a lot of backstabbing party friends who despise her.
Remember not to apply American standards to Germany: conservative means something completely different to what you think, liberal is not an insult, social democrats are not communists, German unions are not like your unions etc. etc.
It should be interesting.
A London or Madrid attack would create a Spanish Surrender.
'Tax increases will come whoever wins. Germany's most pressing problem is unemployment.' .......Gee, That will work.
My knee-jerk response?
Praise God for some sign of sanity in the rest of the world.
Schröder has categorically ruled out working with the Linkspartei. It's basically the old East German SED headed by Oskar Lafontaine, darling of the left, but considered a traitor by the mainstream SPD.
Surely by now everyone has realized Merkel will be Chancellor and, that being the case, there is no point in voting for false change (grand coalition) when real change (CD/FD) can be had.
You will know it in the afternoon lately. We close the ballots at 6 pm local time, then we´re counting and while we do that, the demography institutes release their polls taken from representative voter offices. The final result (with the exception of one district, which is going to vote in October) will be released at ca. 11 pm local time (5 pm EST). Until that, I still have some hours of campaigning. WE´LL MAKE IT!!!
This drinking buddy is also in trouble. At home, the race for Chiracs succession is opened. Either PM Villepin or (my favourite) Interior Minister Sarkozy is most likely the next French President. Sarkozy and Merkel both agree that France and Germany should not play down the importance of the other EU-countries. So, say good-bye to the axis Paris-Berlin-Moscow-Bejing.
It is close indeed. However, 30% are still undecided. I just come home from street campaigning - and my impression is, that those undecided can be easily (!) turned around to us if they think about the economy and the Bundesrat majority of the CDU/CSU/FDP.
That is indeed good news - lots of room there for a big swing to the CDU. And congratulations for all your work for the campaign!
I think that would be a good change of pace for everyone - cheers!
I would agree that 30% undecided means that there are people who are considering the CDU, which is great because leftists would normally not consider such. Anyone who would consider CDU, can and will vote CDU. Merkel has been good at not being too pro-Bush in this campaign (unlike the last campaign 3 years ago). I hate to say that of course. Her speeches about Bush were wonderful 3 years ago. But they lost her the election by a hair's breadth (lost Stoiber the election).
This time around, the election is not about Bush. That is a major thing.
Merkel is a woman. That gets extra female votes. There was no flood to give Schroeder a thankful East Germany this time (thankful for the largesse he doled out). There has got to be 1% each for that.
The CDU had 49.3% of the vote in 2002 and that meant they lost big-time!
I am predicting 51% on Sunday night. It could, however, become a cake walk with 55% of more if the Linkspartei peals off enough votes in each liberal district to give the CDU those districts.
This is what I am really hoping for: a landslide in the directly elected half of the 600 seat Bundestag.
>a landslide in the directly elected half of the 600 seat Bundestag<
I think this is highly unlikely.
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