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I would agree that 30% undecided means that there are people who are considering the CDU, which is great because leftists would normally not consider such. Anyone who would consider CDU, can and will vote CDU. Merkel has been good at not being too pro-Bush in this campaign (unlike the last campaign 3 years ago). I hate to say that of course. Her speeches about Bush were wonderful 3 years ago. But they lost her the election by a hair's breadth (lost Stoiber the election).

This time around, the election is not about Bush. That is a major thing.

Merkel is a woman. That gets extra female votes. There was no flood to give Schroeder a thankful East Germany this time (thankful for the largesse he doled out). There has got to be 1% each for that.

The CDU had 49.3% of the vote in 2002 and that meant they lost big-time!

I am predicting 51% on Sunday night. It could, however, become a cake walk with 55% of more if the Linkspartei peals off enough votes in each liberal district to give the CDU those districts.

This is what I am really hoping for: a landslide in the directly elected half of the 600 seat Bundestag.

Sounds good to me! The European media I am reading is ferociously anti-CDU, no surprise there. And if the bureaucrats in Brussels were in despair over the French 'non' vote on the EU constitution, an outright CDU/CSU/FDP win will make them jump out of the windows!

Where do you get your knowledge and numbers from?

The CDU got 38,5% in 2002
The same numbers as the SPD which also got 38,5 %

There is not a single chance for the CDU to got more than 50% and anybody knows that.

The CDU and Merkel will win this election but it is a question of the coaltition that governs germany.

Foreign policy was no topic during this election campaign.
But to be honest there will be no real change in the german foreign policy. Merkel will have to make enough hard decisions she does not need problems on the field of foreign policy. There will be no support in Iraq . The german troops will stay in Afghanistan but that´s all.

Americans who believe that everything will change in terms of german foreign policy will be disappointed.