Hurricane Ophelia Live Thread

NHC - NOAA ^ | 8 August 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Ophelia is churning off the Florida Atlantic coast.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track Graphics, Satellite
Ophelia Track Forecast Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Melbourne FL Long Range Radar Loop
Melbourne Experimental Radar may experience delays or outages
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Ophelia Wind Field Graphic

Additional Resources:

Central Florida Hurricane Center
News4Jax.com
Hurricane City
Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[tiredoflaundry]

lol. you are right!

[Guenevere]

I don't envy me either, NN !!

I'm only mere miles adjacent to Cape Canaveral ...as the crow flies...and this thing is just sittin'....and gaining.

The house across the pond just had the roof finished & the porch added on, and the house livable....from our hurricanes of last year.

The problem is we don't know where this thing is going....

..Do I make reservations somewhere up the road....or do we sit this out??????

[Amelia]

NHC has never once forecast the storm to simply head out to sea and the overwhelming consensus of the model guidance has always been some sort of landfall eventually...may take a while, though.

Yeah, I was wondering what Pat Prokop knew that the NHC doesn't. ;-)

[Strategerist]

Just get ready to go.

Can't really make reservations since IF it were to come back and hit you, it could be any time from tomorrow (really unlikely) to 6 to 9 days from now (far more likely.)

[AntiGuv]

Not to jump ahead (I know, I know - one storm at a time!) but that swirl of clouds between Yucatan and Mexico could potentially become a tropical storm sometime next week:

That's according to the North Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook. Just an FYI.

[Guenevere]

yes...Jeanne

We evacuated to Orlando for that one...

..dumb move....we got splatted real good anyway.

[ZinGirl]

which part of the coast are you on, may I ask? I have family near sebastian inlet (north of vero..just south of melbourne). thanks.

[Brad’s Gramma]

BTTT with prayers for all of you in the area.

Thanks, NN, for the thread.

[Amelia]

Ok, what's with Accuweather? They are showing Ophelia making landfall maybe Wednesday at about Hilton Head SC, with no loop involved in the path. Where do they get that from?

And, Joe Bastardi seems to think it's going to make it all the way up to Cat 2 or 3 before it hits somewhere on the East Coast.....

[tiredoflaundry]

Thanks for the info!

[Knitting A Conundrum]

This is an interesting model of the storm. It loops twice and hits the FL GA coast twice:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/index_ten_s_loop.shtml

Let us hope it is full of hot water...er, cold water?

anyway, I don't want that model to be reality. It's the 12z time run of the GFS.

[AntiGuv]

Bastardi seems to think it'll cross Florida and into the Gulf though. That'd be most undesirable..

[vigilante2]

a lot of houses down there still don't have their roofs repaired from last years hurricanes

[Strategerist]

Ummm...hrm. My views on Accuweather and Bastardi are pretty well known :-)

It's certainly possible it could hit South Carolina, and it's certainly possible it could landfall as a Cat 2-3.

But here's a good example of Accuweather's modus operandi (I believe they're letting visitors view the site again; btw, I'm "Derecho" on there.)

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=50530

[Guenevere]

They've changed the forecast to include Sebastian Inlet in the Tropical Storm Warning, because this has officially turned into a hurricane.

...just a few hours ago, Sebastian Inlet had been taken off the warning list.

[ZinGirl]

harummmph....*sigh*. thanks, G. (he juuuuust finished rebuilding his crossover....which was destroyed last year ....to the beach a few weeks ago!)

[NautiNurse]

That should confuse the residents enough to keep them tuned in to updates.

[AntiGuv]

The computer models are still all over the place:

Everyone's just guessing.

[Guenevere]

I'm sorry ...ZinGirl....

..doesn't mean Sebastian will be in its path....just a caution/warning.

Sadly, there are lots of rebuilding still going on around here.

[ZinGirl]

Good God...that looks like Ted Kennedy trying to walk a straight line.