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Posted on 09/08/2005 1:46:25 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Ophelia is churning off the Florida Atlantic coast.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track Graphics, Satellite
Ophelia Track Forecast Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Images:
Storm Floater IR Loop
Melbourne FL Long Range Radar Loop
Melbourne Experimental Radar may experience delays or outages
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Ophelia Wind Field Graphic
Additional Resources:
Central Florida Hurricane Center
News4Jax.com
Hurricane City
Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Mike, I think you mean Ophelia not Katrina.
I'm trying to get our resident Weather Bird ( Yomama, the cockatiel ) to sing her "go away, storm" song... but so far, she's quiet, which usually portends more bad weather. Of course, if truth be told, I've never been certain that when she sings at an approaching storm, she's trying to make it go away, or lure it closer... in her native Australia the rainy season is mating season, so she may be trying to get it to draw nearer.
Speaking of which, I'd better uncover the little varmint or I'll be hearing all sorts of outraged squawks, "Dark! It's Dark in here!"
Just loverly.............NOT
Brainfart! Sorry!
http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/uploads/post-681-1126264628.gif
This is a pic from the latest Euro model run...it looks like it's going into the Carolinas if this one is right.
Thank you for telling us when the hurricane is expected to hit. I'm only answering pings right now and can't keep up with threads.
My brother and family are traveling from Jacksonville today to be with us for a large family party so I'm relieved to hear the storm won't be hitting until mid-week next week; maybe it will turn again and go out to sea.
As you can imagine, the locals here are pointing out that Ophelia is not staying close to many of the models, so unpredictability is the order of the day.
983 MB....getting stronger again and fast
Thank you Janet. Looks like the dip to TS status was short lived.
Now seeing a model consensus building for a landfall in Georgia or South Carolina in about 4-6 days.
Yesterday's models looked like a pile of pasta out there. Guess consensus is good. LOL.Thanks for update.
We're leaving for Vegas next Sunday evening. SHOO SHOO SHOO Family wedding and I need this break!
...Ophelia moving away from the U.S coast...for now...
at 11am EDT...1500z...the Tropical Storm Warning for the East Coast of Florida from Sebastian Inlet northward to Flagler Beach...and a the tropical storm watch from north of Flagler Beach to Fernandina Beach have benn discontinued.
Interests from northern Florida through the Carolinas should closely monitor the progress of Ophelia during the next few days.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was located near latitude 29.5 north...longitude 78.9 west or about 130 miles...east of Daytona Beach Florida.
Ophelia is moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph with higher gusts. Ophelia has the potential to become a hurricane later today or Saturday.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center.
Latest minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA reconnaissance plane was 983 mb...29.03 inches.
A high risk of dangerous rip currents exists from Florida northward through the Carolinas.
Repeating the 11 am EDT position...29.5 N... 78.9 W. Movement toward...north-northeast near 5 mph. Maximum sustained winds...65 mph. Minimum central pressure... 983 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 5 PM EDT.
Forecaster Avila
Nominating you for Sainthood for your devotion to hurricane threads!
Ophelia is scaring me.
WFTV noon news in Orlando shows it looping and going to SC next week sometime.
12Z GFS still has the loop, but now the landfall is in Eastern North Carolina with it then passing just offshore VA.
Because of the loop you're unlikely to see the uncanny massive model consensus of Katrina 60 hours before landfall, unfortunately.
recon found 72 knot winds outbound on the SW side..likley a hurricane again..also seems to be growing in size too..waters are very warm and about 2 degrees F above average, but some upwelling shoould occur...the GA coast, like the NE GULF becuase of its shape, has a hugh surge potential..i see no reason why this shouldn't be a CAT 3 by Sunday/monday...dry air may be the only reason to prevent it..may weaken to CAT 2 if it hits GA due to upwelling, but if it moves more north, say SC, water shoould remain warm
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