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Posted on 09/08/2005 1:46:25 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Ophelia is churning off the Florida Atlantic coast.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track Graphics, Satellite
Ophelia Track Forecast Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Images:
Storm Floater IR Loop
Melbourne FL Long Range Radar Loop
Melbourne Experimental Radar may experience delays or outages
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Ophelia Wind Field Graphic
Additional Resources:
Central Florida Hurricane Center
News4Jax.com
Hurricane City
Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Done
Hang in there. This thread tends to run 24/7 when winds are howling.
Hi Corin!
Well they've been howling every day (and night) now for the past several days. My flight school has evacuated all of the planes to hangars at other airports, and the beaches are taking a pounding. Wish she'd just move along already. Getting cranky....
after the crack you made to me earlier - I should keep you off :) (just kidding)
seriously, I always see you on the threads, so I never thought to check to see if yu were on - you are now :)
I did a summary of Katrina for my blog. It's far from complete, but I referenced these threads as a major source.
Great graphic of the latest models for Ophelia. Too big to post on this thread, but here's the link:
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/%7Evigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png
Definitely resembles an arachnid.
Dontcha hate when that happens?
An arachnid that's been stepped on.
Wonder what is making them say it will float NE? If anything I'd think it would float into JAX.
...Ophelia continuing to meander off the Florida coast...
a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the East Coast of Florida from Sebastian Inlet northward to Flagler Beach. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for the northeast Florida coast from north of Flagler Beach to Fernandina Beach. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within the next 36 hours.
Interests elsewhere in northern and central Florida...and the southeastern United States coast...should monitor the progress of Ophelia.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Ophelia was located near latitude 28.7 north...longitude 79.3 west or about 80 miles... 130 km...east-northeast of Cape Canaveral Florida.
Ophelia is nearly stationary. A northeastward drift is expected on Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph...120 km/hr...with higher gusts. Ophelia is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles... 35 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles...130 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb...29.23 inches.
Ophelia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across portions of central and northern Florida.
Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...28.7 N... 79.3 W. Movement ...Stationary. Maximum sustained winds... 75 mph. Minimum central pressure... 990 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am EDT.
Forecaster Beven
Ouch - 11PM local news preview showed a nasty clip of beach erosion.
As best I can tell from the jumbled mess, every model has some version of a loop. Round and round and round she goes, where she comes out, nobody knows.
Probably the best thing that could happen is for the storm to strike land now as a small hurricane and get it over with.
But that's not even a possibility. It's just going to threaten the coast and camp out there for awhile.
When they sit and spin like that, near the coast, they don't even have to be strong to mess up the beaches or coastal wetlands, long as they're there long enough.
That graphic is almost funny....this storm could go anywhere!
Bastardi (sp?) just commented on FNC about a hit on the east coast possibly as far north as hatteras.......but he kept saying they have their work cut out for them watching it, (because they don't know)
I believe a whole bunch of Floridians would agree with you.
We packed twice for her in Mobile.
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