Posted on 09/06/2005 10:54:38 PM PDT by RATkiller
Among the strange delusions and hallucinations gripping the body politic these days is the idea that the so-called global economy is a permanent fixture of the human condition. The seemingly unanimous embrace of this idea in the power circles of America is a marvelous illustration of the madness of crowds, for nothing could be farther from the truth.
The global economy is, in fact, nothing more than a transient set of trade and financial relations based on a particular set of transient, special sociopolitical conditions, namely a few decades of relative world peace between the great powers along with substantial, reliable supplies of predictably cheap fossil fuels. The result, as far as America is concerned, has been an extended fiesta based on suburban comfort, easy motoring, fried food in abundance, universal air conditioning, and bargain-priced imported merchandise acquired on promises to pay later—a way of life described by Vice President Cheney as “non-negotiable.”
Of particular concern ought to be the 12,000-mile-long merchandise supply lines from Asia that American retailers such as Wal-Mart depend on and from which American “consumers” (as opposed to citizens, i.e., people with duties, obligations, and responsibilities) get most of their household goods these days. Wal-Mart now gets 70 percent of its products from China.
(Excerpt) Read more at amconmag.com ...
OK, that explains why I wouldn't remember it. Way up in Syracuse, if it affeected us at all, it must've been a garden variety bad blizzard. Sounds like NYC really got dumped on.
A friend of mine was on spring break in South Carolina, and the rain was still falling heavily down there when New York was getting the peak of the storm.
I think you are confusing the North Sea with the Dead Sea!
The collapse yesterday of Southern Pacific Petroleum marked the end of one of the most enduring and ambitious dreams of the local resources industry: shale oil.In 1968, US business magazine Forbes heralded shale oil, essentially a process to extract oil from shale rock, as "a veritable treasure of black gold . . . so plentiful it can supply this country's needs for at least 200 years." The US never had a shale oil project.
When it collapsed, Southern Pacific was at work on the Stuart project near Gladstone, one of a clutch of shale oil prospects it held west of the Queensland regional centre. While there have been other resource dreams that came to nought - such as Australian Magnesium Corp - shale oil differed. It died a lingering death that began not long after the concept emerged at the start of the 1980s, when US oil giant Exxon said it would outlay a then unheard of $400 million to buy half the Rundle oil shale prospect from Southern Pacific and its Central Pacific Minerals stablemate. Southern Pacific and Central Pacific, for much of their life known as the Rundle twins, merged in 2002.
Doubts about the technical feasibility of extracting shale oil and environmental problems arose soon after Rundle hit the news, and were never resolved. It was a complex and inefficient process. In fact, shale oil is not actually oil at all, but kerogen, with the shale heated and the resulting vapour becoming liquid oil when cooled.
The numbers just never added up: shale oil was supposed to be economic with the price of oil at more than $US13 a barrel, while Southern Pacific had reserves in excess of 26 billion barrels of oil, not far off Libya's 29.5 billion barrels. The technical issues never were resolved and sceptical investors kept well clear of the shares. * * *
The end of cheap energy."
No. The authors claim wasn't just that energy prices would go up. It was that energy prices would spiral out of control and our way of life was doomed.
Energy prices undoubtably will go up, but we will find and develop other sources of energy, life will go on and people will continue to use more energy every year.
E.g., There was a major shale oil push that was dashed in the early 80's when the Saudi's started dumping oil in response to Reagan's request. This was part of his larger designs against the Soviet Union. Which worked.
But, the U.S. shale oil development was an unfortunate financial calamity...collateral damage. So now that we have figured out how to do this extraction for a mere $10 per barrel...all bets against this are off. I doubt that we are never going to see spot-oil less than $50 per barrel again. You yourself believe we have hit peak oil already. Hence, all the more reason to go with alternatives. We just have to watch out for Eco-Wacko sabotage from the Left...who will try and drive up the cost via litigation.
You should also address the fact that the South Africans successfully employed shale oil when they were cut off by an international embargo.
Apparently the technical issues are not really so formidable anymore.
The most recent failure was in Australia in 2003. That was in the report I linked. Or Gooooogle "shale oil + start ups." There are no major companies processing shale into oil today. There are a few companies looking for start up money. But nobody is doing it successfully today.
Hmmmhhh..., haven't seen much of the news on Hurricane Katrina and "human ingenuity" I guess???
Furthermore, Southern Pacific Petroleum was extant during the early 80's correct? This was when the Saudi's DESTROYED the nascent U.S. shale oil industry. When just prior thereto...Exxon bid up the price of the fields with its $400 million purchase of shale oil fields?
Hence, isn't it likely that Southern Pacific also had a "legacy" debt that was debilitating from the standpoint of finishing off its R&D, and ramping up to economic production levels?
We all know this from other technolgy areas. It's called, "the bleeding edge." I.e., the first guys with the good ideas, don't always manage to get the prize. They more often lose their shirts...and then the passel of "me-too" characters horn in and avoid the mistakes of the would-be path-breakers. This is the oldest story in Capitalism.
I guess I've seen a lot of it. I was going to make my typical smartass comment about NO, but I thought in this situation, I better not. I should have. I didn't account for someone like you. lol.
In these rather dismal days you have to throw a little levity into the mix! Actually, I agree with you, necessity being the "Mother of Invention" I am certain that we'll adapt technologically!
I do wonder about our ability to advance as humans however! Recorded history over the past few thousand years reveals that we have really not changed much at all (though we like to pretend that we have...).
"We don't have an oil based economy today either. If we did we would be in an economic depression. Instead we have a growing economy despite record oil prices. Even at it's current price our oil consumption is only about 4% of our GNP."
Trying getting to work to make your contribution to the GDP without oil.
On that, something will happen. The first effect is that those countries that are industrializing but are not yet affluent because they are starting late will find the cost of fuel to be more than they can afford. The already industrialized countries are already affluent and will bear the higher prices better. So, therefore, it follows, that the rich countries will continue to do fairly well and the poorer countries will be in a bind. The countries that have not industrialized will continue to be poor and won't notice the difference.
Could one cook or heat a home with hydrogen? (ehh... "should", I mean.)
We'll adapt alright. We'll find ways to stay home and still do our jobs. Things like movie theaters and quick food restaurants might suffer, so I don't know where those people will look for work.
True especially for that. The present National Petroleum Reserve Alaska was originally a coal reserve for the Navy. Spanish-American war, I think. Then it became the Naval Petroleum Reserve Four. Teapot Dome was another. The coal is still there at PET-4, pretty much untouched.
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