I agree with you, all these models we saw about how NO can be flooded (the Atlantis type flooding we were hearing about in the runup to this) - they need reworking, because I think they make some assumptions which are very unlikely. it seems like to take out NO, the hurricane would have to be moving northwest, riding right up the mouth of the river into Ponchitrain.
I agree with you, all these models we saw about how NO can be flooded (the Atlantis type flooding we were hearing about in the runup to this) - they need reworking, because I think they make some assumptions which are very unlikely.
Pray the Gulf Coast never gets a Tsunami. Tracking models won't mean squat.
Those were the assumptions that I saw going into those models in the first place, so I don't see why they need to be reworked--this storm didn't follow those assumptions and seemed to behave just as predicted for its path.
My larger point in this, is that I am not sure the models note the compartmentalizatio of the levee system and how cost/benefit improvements could be made.
I also think people should be let home, with the usual be safe warnings (dont touch power lines)
You are wrong. The hurricane lost just enough strength (down to a low Cat 3 by the time it was even with NO) and wnet just enough east, that the storm surge south off of Lake Pontchartrain was only about 15' instead of the predicted 20', which would have overtopped most of those levees. Instead only one area (so far) was reported to have an overtop from the lake, apparently in the northeast bowl. (There are actually 3 levee created bowls north of the river, not one.) The levee bowl that is most of the city wasn't overtopped but it was close. The reports of deaths and 40,000+ flooded homes are in the southeast(Ariabi) bowl where the Miss. River overtopped a levee, flooding that bowl to 8-12'. So that worst case scenario did take place to an extent in some of the city, just not in the one with the Superdome, French Quarter, and all the TV cameras.