Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part VII

NOAA - NHC ^ | 28 August 2005 | NOAA - NHC

[NautiNurse]

Extremely dangerous Hurricane Katrina is bearing down on the North Central Gulf of Mexico and New Orleans metro area. New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin conceded that as many as 100,000 inner-city residents didn't have the means to leave and an untold number of tourists were stranded by the closing of the airport. At this hour, people are still filing into the Superdome after security screening for weapons and contraband. National Guard have brought in 360,000 MRE (meals ready to eat) to feed the estimated 30,000 storm refugees in the Superdome.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi
Buoy Data Florida

Images:

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part VI
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part V
Hurricane Katrina, Live Thread, Part IV
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III
Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12

Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
New Orleans Web Cams Loads of web cam sites here. The sites have been very slow due to high traffic
New Orleans Music Online Couldn't resist--love that jazz
Golden Triangle Weather Page Nice Beaumont weather site with lots of tracks and graphics
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:

Fully-linked version of the live feeds (just in case a few people don't want to first open up WMP to cut-and-paste) -

WWL-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
WVTM-TV/DT Birmingham (WMP) - mms://a1256.l1289835255.c12898.g.lm.akamaistream.net/D/

1256/12898/v0001/reflector:35255
WDSU-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - http://mfile.akamai.com/12912/live/reflector:38202.asx
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm
WKRG-TV/DT

Mobile (WMP) - mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast

.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_aug262005_1435_95518 WDSU-TV/DT New Orleans via WESH-TV/DT Orlando - http://mfile.akamai.com/12912/live/reflector:38843.asx

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[NautiNurse]

"I-10 is still a sea of headlights" 15mph speeds. This according to Texas officials.

I stepped away - had to get in a hot shower! -

Was this report from TX, or did TX send their folks into LA?

[RobbyS]

The helpless should have been got out first. Were they is my question?

[Howlin]

Secondly, the other night before going to bed katrina was a cat 3 and then this morning its a Cat 5! That wasnt expected.

The same time it was annouced it was a CAT 3, it was announced it was heading for New Orleans.

And still they did nothing.

[PhiKapMom]

Husband was transferred up here as one of the first ones when announcement came Kelly AFB was shutting down, retired, and now a contractor for a San Antonio firm with an office located outside Tinker.

[onyx]

I suspect you're right: it's a low estimation.

[Diddle E. Squat]

I'll help you out. If the mandatory evac plan had started at 48 hours out, and it contained a bus plan, they could have run most of the transit buses on evac routes to shelters in Baton Rouge, and even with the contraflow on the freeways utilized alternative US highways for a quick return into the city. LSU is on the south side of BR, about 80 miles from NO. Could have probably made at least 2 round trips over 24-30 hours. With 100 NO and BR buses carrying at least 50 each, that's 10,000, or 1/3rd of those in the superdome, double that if they could get 200 buses running. 2nd day allow most transit workers to evac, an the few essential personnel could shuttle the invalids who couldn't evac(the original persons the superdome shelter was intended for) to shelter. Concurrently they could have had a plan in place to utilize rail for evacs. Amtrak has a maintenance base in NO, with excess cars. 2 trains could shuttle approx. 1000 per train, and could make 3 to 5 round trips in 24 hours (no traffic backups) and one of the rail lines goes right by the LSU campus. Could use the campus athletic gyms and coliseum, and perhaps some classroom bldgs as shelters.

So right there that is 20-30,000 evacuated in 24-30 hours. Perhaps more if additional Amtrak cars were available for more trains. And if more is needed, they could also have had a plan to commandeer freight railroad boxcars and gondolas for an emergency shuttle train. Yes, that has problems, no bathrooms, hot, bumpy, slightly dangerous, but it is only 80 miles and if given priority the trip could be made in 3-4 hours. Limit to healthy adults, put families and the elderly on the buses and passenger trains. Its a life and death emergency, so to hell with the trial lawyers and OSHA-types. Could easily move 10-20,000+ that way, and get most of the younger tourists out. And wouldn't need the freight cars if they had an anticipatory plan in place that requested emergency use of the commuter rail cars used in Dallas. Would take about 12-20 hours to reposition from Dallas if there had been a plan negotiated and in place long before.

So right there are ways to get 50,000 persons out, IF it had been planned long in advance, AND the officials had had the guts to make the mandatory evac calls 48 hours in advance, instead of 24. Plus with the smaller # of invalids requiring NO sheltering, perhaps other facilities like casinos or the convention center(which are at about 15' above sea level on the levee) could have been used, if safer than the superdome.

[sonofatpatcher2]

Re: I talked to my daughter on the phone a little while ago. She said she had seen the college kids stuck down there on TV. She said, "You know, mom, I never before would have considered taking a ride with a stranger, but if I was in NO without a car and I saw what this storm looked like heading in on the radar, I'd be standing on the road with my thumb out and I'd get in any car, with anyone that offered to get me out of there."

You daughter has common sense... She's a survivor!

[de Buillion]

"He's going to get blamed because he did NOT KNOW WHAT TO DO during the storm of the century."

Sorry, he cannot be blamed. He has to be excused. I can't exactly say why......

[Howlin]

And still 100 miles out? Wow.

[CindyDawg]

another example of building a city in the wrong place.

I'm not trying to be disagreeable tonight but I differ. This is like saying no homes near a fault line, rivers, tornado alleys, blizzard areas etc. People should live where they want but build for protection.

[thecabal]

The abilty to provoke destruction is a -force- question, not a -power- question.

Agreed, once started, the power (force times distance) question comes into play. But the force of my half-ton ass on the couch provides -no- power until the couch is broken. Meanwhile, I am dead weight, and (only) if enough weight, I break the couch.

You are confusing power and work. Work is force times distance (assuming the force vector and displacment vector is in the same direction). Power is the rate of work (energy divided by time).

[Howlin]

That's the impression I'm getting.

[pax_et_bonum]

Outed as a thread-glory-seeking hog.

Flyer, you're great!

I'm so glad we're friends.

[GOPyouth]

Tyler, Texas hotels are full tonight. That's a good 7 hours from NO. First Christian Church has opened up for shelter, with 2 other large churces on stand-by.

[Coldwater Creek]

I love OKC. They have the best thrift stores in the country. They are fun, fun,

[NautiNurse]

Well--we've got us a couple of Texas storm watchers...

How y'all doing this evening?

[JeffAtlanta]

In Chicago, the moring trains move 300,000+ every morning (couple of hours) and every evening.

And chicago spent years building that infrastructure. Look at what happened to New York City during their power black out a few years ago. They all had to walk home.

[STARWISE]

And don't forget that Max Mayfield from the National Hurricane Center had to call him to set him straight and urge him to make the mandatory evacuation order, as well.

[PAR35]

What sort of public transportation could New Orleans mustered to move 100,000 people in 18 hours?

And the even bigger problem - where are you going to move them to? Anyplace within 150 miles is likely going to need its own shelters for local needs before this is over. (And the nearest non- coastal cities within easy range (Jackson and Baton Rouge) are both under 250,000 population. No way either of them could handle another 50,000 folks - both are packed with folks that got themselves that far. The nearest big cities are Houston, Dallas, Memphis and Birmingham.

[PhiKapMom]

Didn't seem to be much of a plan to move out the helpless. I saw an interview with three girls who were helping out at a military home -- took it was for military with medical problems -- one of the girls Mom's was in there. They were not being evacuated. A lot of people with young children with no transportation not evacuated. Visitors to the city -- not evacuated.