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Locked on 08/28/2005 8:10:53 PM PDT by Admin Moderator, reason: |
Posted on 08/28/2005 2:38:16 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Extremely dangerous Hurricane Katrina is bearing down on the North Central Gulf of Mexico and New Orleans metro area. Thousands of people did not evacuate New Orleans. Outer bands of Katrina are reaching the Louisiana coast.
Due to the size and intensity of this storm, all interests in the North Gulf of Mexico should be in their safe locations.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi
Buoy Data Florida
Images:
New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait
Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop
Northwest Florida Long Range Radar
Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Other Resources:
Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
New Orleans Web Cams Loads of web cam sites here. The sites have been very slow due to high traffic
New Orleans Music Online Couldn't resist--love that jazz
Golden Triangle Weather Page Nice Beaumont weather site with lots of tracks and graphics
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics
Live streaming:
WWL-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
WVTM-TV/DT Birmingham (WMP) - mms://a1256.l1289835255.c12898.g.lm.akamaistream.net/D/1256/12898/v0001/reflector:35255
WDSU-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - http://mfile.akamai.com/12912/live/reflector:38202.asx
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm
WKRG-TV/DT Mobile (WMP) - mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_aug262005_1435_95518
Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
---|---|---|---|---|
Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Thank you,,we are fine, hubby is out getting provisions, we have been away. Tornado beepers going off and there is wind now. Dang, I hope my power stays.
Ummmm...Pat Robertson?
Aare you in Nashville? We are in the Memphis area. Are we included?????
I rode out Charley last year at my grandmother's house. She has one of these post-war concrete block tract homes that are common as weeds in older Florida neighborhoods - anyone who's spent time down here will immediately know the kind of house I'm talking about. We got recorded sustained winds of 90-95 mph at City Hall (about 3 miles away) with gusts over 100 mph.
She has an aluminum screened in porch on the back of the house. During the height of the storm you could hear the wind picking up the porch roof and banging it back down. I was afraid that it might rip off, and then the rest of the porch might come through the sliding glass door, so I placed a mattress in front of the door and braced it up to at least slow down any debris. It never did rip apart, though.
He just said that he will be reporting throughout the night.
I admit to being worried about him.
Where are you?
Absolutely.
My son worked at the Big Fisherman this past summer. He recognized the Mayor from all the commercials the Mayor made asking folks to get a job, and at least get job training. When he went to the neighborhood store, whoever was in front of him was inevitably getting a 40.
At this point, I'm not sure if there is a way for anyone to leave NO.
(Click on photo to enlarge.)
yeah...
I am hoping it jumps here.
the western eyewall may be showing some weakness MAYBE. an eyewall replacement cycle would be a blessing at this point. It would probably knock some intensity off of this thing, but probably not enough to matter.
In addition to fire ants I've run into those buggers in Texas too. As a WestCoast person I'm not used to all these critters.
It seems the owners of the super dome where not so sure about its safety either. They seem to have a big concern about wind sheer because of some of the large buildings near there.
Hey, at least they have Shep now on the Claymation Cam.
The street in front of Shep is six feet below sea level. Storm surges are 18-22 feet. Waves at 15-20 feet. Shep might find himself under water.
Latest report from Weather Underground (http://www.weatherunderground.com)
Posted by: JeffMasters, 6:23 PM EDT on August 28, 2005
KATRINA: STRONGEST HURRICANE EVER IN GULF OF MEXICO
The 4:38pm EDT NOAA Hurricane Hunter mission found a central pressure of 903 mb, up from the 902 measured at 3:30pm. These pressures make Katrina the strongest hurricane ever observed in the Gulf of Mexico, surpassing Camille. Although the pressure has stopped falling, there is no indication that Katrina is about to undergo weakening, like we saw yesterday during her eyewall replacement cycle. When that cycle started, the eye diameter was 9 nm, but the present eye diameter is 25 nm. Eyewall replacement cycles usually begin when the eye shrinks below 10 nm, and there are no indications that Katrina's eye is going to shrink.
The list of strongest hurricanes of all time now reads:
Hurricane Gilbert (1988)
The Great Labor Day Hurricane (1935)
Hurricane Allen ( 1980)
Hurricane Katrina (2005)
Hurricane Camille (1969)
Landfall location and intensity
Katrina has continued to expand in size, and now rivals Hurricane Gilbert and Hurricane Allen as the largest hurricanes in size. When hurricanes reach such enormous sizes, they tend to create their own upper-air environment, making them highly resistant to external wind shear. The global computer models are not really hinting at any wind shear that might affect Katrina before landfall, and the only thing that might weaken her is an eyewall replacement cycle. Even if one of these happens in the next 12 hours, the weakest Katrina is likely to get before landfall is a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds. Katrina is so huge and powerful that she will still do incredible damage even at this level. The track forecast has not changed significantly, and the area from New Orleans to the Mississippi-Louisiana border is going to get a catastrophic blow. I put the odds of New Orleans getting its levees breached and the city submerged at about 70%. This scenario, which has been discussed extensively in literature I have read, could result in a death toll in the thousands, since the evacuation order was given too late to get all the people out of the city. I recommend that if you are trapped in New Orleans tomorrow, that you wear a life jacket and a helmet if you have them. High rise buildings may offer good refuge, but Katrina has the potential to knoick down a high-rise building. A 25 foot storm surge and 30 - 40 foot high battering waves on top of that may be able to bring down a steel-reinforced high rise building. I don't believe a high rise building taller than six stories has ever been brought down by a hurricane, so this may not happen Monday, either. We are definitely in unknown waters with Katrina.
I have focused on New Orleans in much of my discussions about this storm, but Katrina will do tens of billions in damage all along the coast of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida. Mobile Bay could well see a 10-foot storm surge. And inland areas will take heavy damage as well; KATRINA WILL STILL BE A HURRICAN 180 MILES INLAND, and cause widespread flooding throughout the Tennessee Valley.
My thoughts and prayers go out to all of you in Katrina's way, and I urge all readers of this blog to do the same.
<<end weather underground article
I have cable.
it didn't affect me much but it might affect others.
Uh, he's the one who sent it.
"I have been through a few of these and they scare me to death."
I've been through a few; Hugo, Fran and Floyd. They are not to be toyed with, particularly on the waterfront.
All this worst-case speculation by others, high-rises toppling etcetera, serves no useful purpose, though. It may very well be detrimental and cause injury or death due to panic.
Why scare people any more than they no doubt already are?
Here's the latest from the causeway.
Warning: It will scare the bejesus out of you.
http://images.ibsys.com/no/images/weather/auto/causewaycam_640x480.jpg
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