Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part VI

NOAA - NHC ^ | 28 August 2005 | NOAA - NHC

[NautiNurse]

Extremely dangerous Hurricane Katrina is bearing down on the North Central Gulf of Mexico and New Orleans metro area. Thousands of people did not evacuate New Orleans. Outer bands of Katrina are reaching the Louisiana coast.

Due to the size and intensity of this storm, all interests in the North Gulf of Mexico should be in their safe locations.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi
Buoy Data Florida

Images:

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
New Orleans Web Cams Loads of web cam sites here. The sites have been very slow due to high traffic
New Orleans Music Online Couldn't resist--love that jazz
Golden Triangle Weather Page Nice Beaumont weather site with lots of tracks and graphics
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:

WWL-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
WVTM-TV/DT Birmingham (WMP) - mms://a1256.l1289835255.c12898.g.lm.akamaistream.net/D/1256/12898/v0001/reflector:35255
WDSU-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - http://mfile.akamai.com/12912/live/reflector:38202.asx
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm
WKRG-TV/DT Mobile (WMP) - mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_aug262005_1435_95518

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[cajungirl]

Her llama is adorable. But you really can't wear certain kinds of sweaters around him or he gets amorous. The goat just keeps him comppany. They are not, well, you know.

[Txsleuth]

You weren't here to keep everyone in order, and things have gotten a little "messy" at times....

But, never fear, TOL is here!!!

BTW, some of the outer bands of the hugh storm almost get to Tampa Bay, when they show the radar!

[pax_et_bonum]

That's always driven people crazy when I tell them I'm from "south of New Orleans." The reaction is always the same, "there ain't nothing south of New Orleans." Actually, Houma is south-southwest of New Orleans and it looks like they'll be getting the storm's outer bands here soon.

I think lots of us are learning more about Louisiana geography tonight than we ever knew!

Have you talked with Sheilah recently? Is she alone or with friends?

[Blogger]

I'm very concerned for Shep.

[nascaryankee]

I got it from the NHC report.

I wouldn't trust Matt on my weather report..... lol

[the Deejay]

Maybe it's just my own common sense,
but I think if I lived anywhere near
NO, I would have been packed up and
in Tulsa by Friday afternoon.

[I do have one relative alive in Tulsa.]

I sure wouldn't been sitting 'round waiting
for the mayor to tell me when to leave.

And if the hurricane fizzled out, sobeit....
I would have had a nice chin wag w/my aunt.

However, I live in the desert, where nothing happens......not even rain.

[rwfromkansas]

Ususally eyewall replacement cycles will weaken the storm first quite dramatically before it then strengthens to worse than before.

However, this storm just has slowly weakened during the same cycles, but to only a slight degree....and then started to even strengthen during those cycles.

I do not know if it has time to fully go through the cycle and strengthen a lot, but by the time it hits land, it probably will be entering a slow strengthening phase and be about where it is now in intensity.

[CFC__VRWC]

High tide for Monday is about 4 AM, with a rise of 1.8 ft.

[rit]

000
WTNT23 KNHC 290239
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132005
0300Z MON AUG 29 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 47.4W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 47.4W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 46.9W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 16.9N 48.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 18.1N 50.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 19.2N 52.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 20.4N 54.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.5N 58.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 24.0N 60.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 25.5N 62.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 47.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN

[queenkathy]

Remember what they said about the WTC buildings?

[oceanview]

to power an air conditioner for that huge space? that would have to be one hell of a generator.

[Dad yer funny]

there is alot going on in our house tonight, I thought that temp was correct[if the sun beats on that almost 10 acres of roof,however its insullated],... it stands to reason how mighty "close" it would become without mechanized ventillation

[cajungirl]

BTW aren't you in Atlanta?

I was there this weekend and love that place, it is fabulous. Saw BB King at the Chastain and loved it.

[tomkat]

Ditto mk's remarks.

[benjaminjjones]

RE: Whoraldo is a Male Rita Cosby.

Never thought of it quite that way, but now that I do, I'm not sure he's entirely happy being in a male body, LOL

[BagCamAddict]

Many people who are evacuating are LETTING THEIR ANIMALS LOOSE TO FEND FOR THEMSELVES because the hotels they are going to don't take pets.

One woman I know had a neighbor knock on her door before evacuating. She wanted to know if she could call when the storm was over to see if her house had survived. Just then, she saw the neighbor lady's dog running loose in the street, looking worried and confused. She said "Hey, your dog is loose!!" The lady said, "Yeah, we thought it would be cruel and unsafe to leave them in the house." (cats and dogs)

So they were just turning them loose to fend for themselves! If anyone sees loose pets, PLEASE try to catch them to protect them from the storm. Breed rescue groups will take them as soon as they are able to. Personally, I wouldn't return them to their so-called "owners" when the storm is over because they don't deserve to have them back.

(Sorry if this topic has been covered a zillion times; I'm late to the thread and not planning on reading 2700+ posts tonight.)

[mplsconservative]

I am in complete despair. I can hardly believe that the worst case scenario for hurricanes and the Gulf coast is about to unfold. We are about to lose an entire precious US city. The doomsday scenario was fun to play with on the computer models. There's nothing fun about this. Hell is about to be unleashed.

I've been lurking on this thread for awhile now and have not chimed in until now.

I've had a feeling of dread all day about this hurricane. Your post nails it.

No sleep tonight for this Minnesotan. I'm terribly, terribly worried about our fellow Americans. Prayers up for all affected.

[Revel]

"Knock it off - ridiculously irresponsible of you and the other 2 that are using this as a place to cause religeous conflict."


I am afraid he is not the one causing the conflict. I am begining to think there is a group of people who actually despise God. There is nothing wrong at all with the comment you are attacking.

[ReignOfError]

I have not, however, seen a Cat 5 landfall in my lifetime.

You write amazingly well for someone under 13.

Hurricane Andrew was a Cat 5 when it hit Florida on August 24, 1992. I think they called it a 4 at the time, and upgraded it after they'd had time to review the data,

[cgk]

I heard it was built to withstand a Cat 3 only? Is that correct?

I am afraid for all inside & hope they come through this safely.