Live Thread - Hurricane Katrina, Part IV (Update: Now a Category 5 )

NOAA - NHC ^ | 27 August 2005 | NOAA - NHC

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane warnings and watches are posted. Hurricane Katrina continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. The forecast models continue to converge upon New Orleans. However, all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should follow the path of this very large and dangerous storm, and be prepared for a major hurricane landfall. There have been reports of coastal animals leaving in droves for higher ground. Meanwhile, New Orleans continues to suggest that residents evacuate.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi
Buoy Data Florida

Images:

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
New Orleans Web Cams Loads of web cam sites here. The sites have been very slow due to high traffic
New Orleans Music Online Couldn't resist--love that jazz
Golden Triangle Weather Page Nice Beaumont weather site with lots of tracks and graphics
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:
copy/paste into player:

WWL-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
WVTM-TV/DT Birmingham (WMP) - mms://a1256.l1289835255.c12898.g.lm.akamaistream.net/D/1256/12898/v0001/reflector:35255
WDSU-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - http://mfile.akamai.com/12912/live/reflector:38202.asx
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm

Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III
Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[Palladin]

That must be an old picture. Whenever did Jim have that much hair?

[alancarp]

That buoy is at 26N, 85.9W

Katrina is about 65 miles away at 25N, 86.2W

[pollyg107]

Yeah, I was just thinking it's a good think Morial's gone.

[bannie]

When I hear of "hurricane parties," I lose a bit of sympathy...then I remember that idiots can't help what they are.

[Knitting A Conundrum]

Amen to that, Gabz...

[sonsofliberty2000]

Only if no one else is arrested. I can see it now, Fox will be covering the death of millions and all of a sudden the breaking news swoosh is heard and there is Greta et. al. in breathless wonder saying some Aruban was just arrested, and droning on with Judge Napalitano or another for hour on hour.

[Oorang]

bkmark

[Gabz]

I can't grasp this.

You are not the only one.

[Mad_Tom_Rackham]

My response to the earlier thread that was disabled:

but I don't know much about all of this weather-reading, so hopefully more knowledgeable folks will let us know for sure.

The thing to remember is, the lower the pressure in any given area, the more force is applied by everything surrounding (atmospheric gasses) that are influenced via laws of physics to "get in" to that area. In weather systems, that force is manifested as "wind". Regarding Hurricanes, this wind force is categorized -- hence CAT 3, 4, 5 etc. Ground surface wind also has the undesirable effect of raising ocean and lake sea levels. This is why coastal cities like New Orleans would be in grave danger.

[Flux Capacitor]

It's always amused me that the biggest mass shelter in N.O. is the place that was built on top of an Indian burial ground. :)

-Dan

[Pyro7480]

You know, this isn't very Christian of me, but my first response to what you two said about the looting of the Superdome, and the crime rate in the Big Easy, was the old phrase "Crime doesn't pay." If you're too self-centered to not think before you get into a drug habit or run yourself into poverty because you wanted to have sex at 15.... tough luck for you.

[Semper911]

This is amazing.

This is a train wreck.

It is a no win situation. If NO gets nailed, it will be catastrophic. If it lands east or west, it will also be catastrophic, because all the media coverage (and models) are focused on NO.

[Knitting A Conundrum]

40 years, 13 days since the last killer hurricane went through NO....

[Torie]

He was just spinning, albeit incompetently. He probably isn't having anyone research anything. He is a deer in the headlights, who had the chief weather guy call him, whom I am listening to now, to tell him, that absent moving now, the folks who remain will likely die, because the levees will NOT hold. That caused the mayor to panic. You could hear it in his voice. Oh dear, what do I do now? Here I had a plan to just bus the impoverished to the super bowl stadium, and tell tourists to ride out the storm in their hotel rooms, and it sucked, because I am a dumbass.

If this is the perfect storm, NO isn't coming back, ever, I suspect, in any way like it was remotely before.

[Age of Reason]

lets admit it - NO is a crime-ridden pit

They should get the word out among the criminal element that it's time to head to the underground shelters.

[Professional Engineer]

At least Houma isn't below sea level. Still...

[groanup]

Thanks for the ping, Nauti

[ImphClinton]

Other problem is they have to pump water out of the below sea level city. Thus rain alone if sufficiently fast could flood the city, even in the unlikely chance that NO is "missed".

Furthermore the eye is 40 miles across so a 20 mile miss is still a hit.

[metmom]

The worst of the weather is not in the center of the hurricane. If I remember right it's the right side of the storm in relation to the direction of the storm path. In other words, it's the east side of the storm as it's heading north. The problem caused by the eye passing over is that the winds increase gradually as the storm approaches and stop suddenly as the eye passes over. It's when the eye wall hits again that the winds go from zero to 75mph+ in seconds. If the storms sustained winds are 100 and it's forward motion is 7 mph the winds go from 0 to 107 in no time and slam into everything. That's the destructive part. Then there's the tornados... No good part of a hurricane. Missing a direct hit isn't necessarily a good thing.

[antti tuuri]

no good deed would go unpunished