Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III

NHC-NOAA ^ | 27 August 2005 | NHC-NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Katrina continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. Currently, the forecast models are converging upon New Orleans. However, all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should follow the path of this storm, and be prepared for a major hurricane landfall. Throughout Friday, the official track forecasts moved west, as Hurricane Katrina delayed making the anticipated northwest turn.

The following links are self-updating.

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi

Images:

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:

WFOR-TV Miami: http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live
WWL-TV New Orleans: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
HurricaneCity.com: http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
WTSP-TV Tampa: mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_jan032005_0856_78183
WKRG-TV Mobile mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_jul072005_1144_93320

Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[Miss Marple]

Yes, it is frightening. Most people when traveling in a foreign country don't check the news. Europeans are no different.

They will be totally unprepared. I hope someone goes through the streets and tells them.

[LA Woman3]

I'm close to Baton Rouge....not New Orleans.

[BurbankKarl]

Dont you remember the last one...that hit Mobile instead...the people headed to the rooftops to watch the storm roll in.

[Ellesu]

NHC guy on 870 AM radio said animals are leaving the coast. "Flocks of snakes and turtles".

[janetjanet998]

Saturday, August 27, 2005 Hurricane Center director warns New Orleans: This is really scary
By Mark Schleifstein Times-Picayune Staff Writer
National Hurricane Center Director Max Mayfield said Saturday afternoon that Hurricane Katrina will be at least a Category 4, with winds of 145 mph when it approaches the New Orleans area, and that it could be a Category 5, with winds of 155 mph or higher.
Meanwhile, computer model runs conducted by a team of Louisiana State University scientists indicate that even if Katrina had winds of only 115 mph, levees protecting Kenner, Metairie and New Orleans on the east bank will be overtopped by a 10- to 12-foot storm surge, topped by waves at least half that high, in some locations along Lake Pontchartrain.
"The guidance we get and common sense and experience suggests this storm is not done strengthening," Mayfield said in a telephone call from Miami-Dade County, which was hit by a Category 1 Katrina earlier in the week.
"This is really scary," he said. "This is not a test, as your governor said earlier today. This is the real thing."
Mayfield warned residents intent on not leaving in advance of Katrina to learn from the storm's effects in south Florida. "We think this was a solid Category 1 when it made landfall here," he said. "But we had windows in new homes that blew in when they were designed for 145 mph winds."
Mayfield also warned people not to focus on the eye of the storm, as atmospheric conditions are perfect for Katrina's intensity to stretch far to the east and west of its eye.
"This thing is like Hurricane Opal," he said, referring to a huge 1995 hurricane that hit the Florida panhandle as a Category 3 storm. "We're seeing 12-foot seas along the Louisiana coast already."
Ivor van Heerden, a scientist at the LSU Hurricane Center, said he's also concerned that the waves atop the surge in Lake Pontchartrain could weaken levees and cause additional overtopping.
"The bottom line is this is a worst-case scenario and everybody needs to recognize it," he said. "You can always rebuild your house, but you can never regain a life. And there's no point risking your life and the lives of your children."

[beyond the sea]

He told them he was covering the approaching hurricane and they didn't know anything about it.

So much for the information age.

[Types_with_Fist]

Are you serious?

[Miss Marple]

Well, flocks of snakes and turtles heading inland is enough for me! ANYONE IN NEW ORLEANS GET OUT!!!

[NautiNurse]

The animals always know.

[snowsislander]

Here's a newer "Vortex" message from NHC:

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 28/00:01:40Z
B. 24 deg 50 min N
  085 deg 51 min W
C. 700 mb 2587 m
D. 45  kt
E. 217 deg 056 nm
F. 285 deg 090 kt
G. 209 deg 008 nm
H. EXTRAP  942 mb
I.  10 C/ 3042 m
J. 18  C/ 3049 m
K. 15  C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. E12/40/30
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1  nm
P. AF300 1512A KATRINA      OB 05
MAX FL WIND 90 KT SW QUAD 23:59:10 Z
MAX FL TEMP 19C 320/6NM FROM FL CENTER
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700MB
RAGGED EYE WALL

So it looks like the extrapolated pressure was 942 millibars for this report.

[CajunConservative]

It is pretty cool. I just found it myself.

[snowsislander]

Here's a newer "Vortex" message from NHC:

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 28/00:01:40Z
B. 24 deg 50 min N
  085 deg 51 min W
C. 700 mb 2587 m
D. 45  kt
E. 217 deg 056 nm
F. 285 deg 090 kt
G. 209 deg 008 nm
H. EXTRAP  942 mb
I.  10 C/ 3042 m
J. 18  C/ 3049 m
K. 15  C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. E12/40/30
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1  nm
P. AF300 1512A KATRINA      OB 05
MAX FL WIND 90 KT SW QUAD 23:59:10 Z
MAX FL TEMP 19C 320/6NM FROM FL CENTER
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700MB
RAGGED EYE WALL

So it looks like the extrapolated pressure was 942 millibars for this report.

[beyond the sea]

Mayfield also warned people not to focus on the eye of the storm, as atmospheric conditions are perfect for Katrina's intensity to stretch far to the east and west of its eye.

[Torie]

It seems like it will hit between Gulfport, just east of NO, and the central coast of Louisiana according to a radio discussion I am listening to, as a category 4.

[beyond the sea]

remember how all the animals left before the tsunami

[yield 2 the right]

NHC guy on 870 AM radio said animals are leaving the coast. "Flocks of snakes and turtles".

The same thing happened in SouthEast Asia before the Tsunami of Dec. 26th, 2004 in the Indian Ocean...hmmmm

[steve86]

NHC guy on 870 AM radio said animals are leaving the coast. "Flocks of snakes and turtles".

It is the most amazing thing -- just like before the typhoon. Low frequency vibrations or something? They're smarter than the people in the Oyster Bar, that's for sure. The one guy's working on his sixth or seventh "Cheer for Katrina"

[Miss Marple]

Bad news. I feel compelled to encourage people to evacuate now, even though the ones who are needing to hear this message are not on the internet. They are partying and foolishly ignoring the warnings.

[LA Woman3]

Yes, I heard it....
And I assume you heard the caller that lived in a trailer that thought it was going to be a bad storm because his neighbor's dog is named Katrina.....

[steve86]

typhoon=tsunami