Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III

NHC-NOAA ^ | 27 August 2005 | NHC-NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Katrina continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. Currently, the forecast models are converging upon New Orleans. However, all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should follow the path of this storm, and be prepared for a major hurricane landfall. Throughout Friday, the official track forecasts moved west, as Hurricane Katrina delayed making the anticipated northwest turn.

The following links are self-updating.

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi

Images:

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:

WFOR-TV Miami: http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live
WWL-TV New Orleans: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
HurricaneCity.com: http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
WTSP-TV Tampa: mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_jan032005_0856_78183
WKRG-TV Mobile mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_jul072005_1144_93320

Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[NautiNurse]

Please post links to the cams--they hang up the thread

[BurbankKarl]

Looks like the 10 East is blocked.

[numberonepal]

Thanks for the pics. This pic is of a dog on the roof, wonder how he got there?

Very carefully.

[NautiNurse]

stop already with the cams--they are hanging up the thread badly

[shield]

OK...will know more in the AM...

[Swanks]

Why the heck can't they reverse southbound traffic? Jeez, 5 of 6 northbound lanes are literally a parking lot. And the southbound lanes are ... empty.

Here in NC, 40 East is reversed to 40 West, doubling the poential to get out. Guess the moron state gov't civil servants haven't figured that one out yet.

[LA Woman3]

Are you listening to 870 and the complaints about the road blocks etc. from the contraflow? This state trooper doesn't sound like he has a clue about the contraflow.


It is maddening!
And quite talking about the margin of error with the computer models when you are encouraging people to evacuate!!

[BurbankKarl]

You need to switch to decaf

[LincolnLover]

Wow. Bob really said this?

Jim Cantore was just as doom and gloom on the Weather Channel.

I found live streaming video from WWL, but not Fox, so I can't watch Bob live (I'm in Houston). Thanks for the comments.

[LibSnubber]

FNC: Pres. Bush has just issued a state of emergency for LA

[Malichi]

The significance of your post just hit me. Camille was 909mb when she made landfall in '69. Damn, this is going to be bad. Understatement of the year.

TAW

[NautiNurse]

doggy paddle

[mwp99]

Fox: Bob Breck

He's talking about various path scenarios and mentioning 20 ft. of water entering Lakes Catherine and Pontchartrain.

[juzcuz]

Are you staying?

I haven't heard of any notices of Evac's in MS..

[NautiNurse]

that's big

[LibSnubber]

I know. I've been trying to stay calm (my hubby is still in Slidell right on Lake Ponchartrain) but when Paige ? said that FEMA was being mobilized, I got a cold chill.

[Types_with_Fist]

FNC: Pres. Bush has just issued a state of emergency for LA

Rut-Roh. That's not very comforting at all. They know how bad this is going to be. I hope they string that damned governor up afterward.

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Katrina Intermediate Advisory Number 18a
Statement as of 7:00 PM CDT on August 27, 2005

...Dangerous Hurricane Katrina begins to move toward the
west-northwest...

A Hurricane Watch is in effect along the northern Gulf Coast from
Intracoastal City to the Alabama-Florida border. 

 
A Hurricane Warning will likely be required for portions of the
northern Gulf Coast later tonight. Interests in this area should
monitor the progress of Katrina.

 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

 

At 7 PM CDT...0000z...the center of Hurricane Katrina was located
near latitude 24.8 north...longitude  85.9 west or about  360 miles
southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

 
Katrina has begun to move toward the west-northwest near 7 mph. 
This general motion should continue tonight and Sunday.

 
Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph...with higher gusts. 
Katrina is a category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale.  Strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...and
Katrina could become a category four hurricane later tonight or
Sunday.

 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to  45 miles from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160
miles.  NOAA buoy 42003 located northwest of the center recently
reported sustained winds of 54 mph with a gust to 64 mph and
25-foot waves.

 
The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
reconnaissance plane was 944 mb...27.88 inches.

 
Data from buoys indicate that 12-foot waves are already approaching
portions of the northern Gulf Coast. Storm surge flooding along the
southwestern coast of Florida should subside tonight.

 
Katrina is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 3 to
5 inches over extreme western Cuba...and 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
is expected over the Yucatan Peninsula.  Heavy rains from Katrina
should begin to affect the central Gulf Coast Sunday evening.
Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches...with isolated maximum amounts
of 15 inches...are possible across the central Gulf Coast.

 
Repeating the 7 PM CDT position...24.8 N... 85.9 W.  Movement
toward...west-northwest near  7 mph.  Maximum sustained winds...115
mph.  Minimum central pressure... 944 mb.

 
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
10 PM CDT.

 
Forecaster Avila

[janetjanet998]

all..
it seems like there were a rush of people at the very start but the roads look dead now...most are NOT leaving yet..this is NOT looking good...when they wake in the AM this will be a CaT 4 with 135 plus winds heading NW towards them...the highways will be a parking lot.....the storm is huge area wise and tropical frce winds could be moving in as ealry as 24-30 hours from now

[Ellesu]

Politico from St. Tammany is saying NHC is telling him 14-18 foot storm surge for coastal Louisiana.