Yikes. I guess I should stop making "Katrina and the Waves" jokes.
-Dan
Posted on 08/25/2005 11:51:53 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Katrina is emerging into the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico early this morning after making landfall in SE Florida, then tracking SW. Thus far, she is well ahead of schedule, leaving at least four fatalities in her wake, and well over 1 million without electricity.
The following links are self-updating.
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida
Images:
Key West Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait
Tampa Bay Long Range Radar Loop
Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Other Resources:
Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
If that's the case, I'll have a feed for WWL-TV tomorrow.
-Dan
"The hurricane is expected to be under a typical 200 mb anticylone...with a cyclonic circulation extending upward to that level. This is the typical pattern observed in intense hurricanes. In addition...Katrina is forecast to move directly over the warm loop current of the Gulf of Mexico...which is like adding high octane fuel to the fire."
KATRINA IS FORECAST TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE WARM
LOOP CURRENT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH IS LIKE ADDING HIGH
OCTANE FUEL TO THE FIRE. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS
KATRINA TO 115 KNOTS...OR A CATEGORY FOUR ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. THE GFDL IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND CALLS FOR 124
KNOTS AND 922 MB. THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE IS EVEN MORE AGGRESSIVE
BRINGING KATRINA TO 131 KNOTS.
I'm willing to goof around with these models when they're all over the place, but when they converge, the time for speculation is over.
You folks know where you live. I think Katrina will be Cat 4 at landfall. If we're lucky, not Cat 5.
Just think about it, and do something tomorrow morning the latest.
New Orleans City Hall spokeswoman Tami Frazier said officials were watching the storm, and had activated what she called the lowest alert level — monitoring storm movements.
New Orleans residents, Get out, get out, get out!
Do you think their is a chance the models will shift more left to Lafayette area?
I'll be posting a new thread in the wee hours. Can you FReepmail me the links for the streaming again---pretty please? Or just point me to the post that has them.
Not to minimize the potential for loss of life -- not at all, in fact -- but where are the oil/gas refineries in that area? This thing could end up impacting the entire country with, oh, maybe $3.50 gas prices or something (and don't think the speculators won't do that, given any excuse).
Heard earlier that 21 rigs are already being evacuated.
If it still looks the same in 6-10 hours track wise, I hope they start evacuating the city. They need at least 3 days to do it properly, so we are going to run out of time soon.
I'll take a look - everyone's stopped the wall-to-wall stuff (outside of Hurricane City), but let me see what I can find.
Whoa.
thanks again for your help--I hear lots of good feedback for the streaming sites.
SHHHHHHH! Don't give it any ideas....
-Dan
If it were me in New Orleans, I'd stay up packing and hit the road in a few hours, to beat the rush. Would also have someone else calling some of the motel chains right now to get reservations in western LA or eastern TX.
Live streaming:
WFOR-TV Miami http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live
WWL-TV New Orleans mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
HurricaneCity.com http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
WTSP-TV Tampa mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_jan032005_0856_78183
WKRG-TV Mobile mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_jul072005_1144_93320
Joe Bastardi on FoxNews said this storm could rival Camille and Betsy.
Most of those links are not live presently. The Mobile and New Orleans links are only likely URLs, based on past performance - I won't have solid info until late tomorrow for them.
Hurricane City is streaming WFOR right now; they're probably going to stream The Weather Channel after midnight. Jim says that he'll be live tomorrow at 8P ET with his usual round of live information and analysis.
Worth repeating again.
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