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Hurricane/TS Katrina Live Thread, Part II
NHC - NOAA ^ | 26 August 2005 | NHC - NOAA

Posted on 08/25/2005 11:51:53 PM PDT by NautiNurse

Katrina is emerging into the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico early this morning after making landfall in SE Florida, then tracking SW. Thus far, she is well ahead of schedule, leaving at least four fatalities in her wake, and well over 1 million without electricity.

The following links are self-updating.

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida

Images:


Key West Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Excellent South FL radar loop

Tampa Bay Long Range Radar Loop

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible


TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: Alabama; US: Florida; US: Louisiana; US: Mississippi
KEYWORDS: florida; hurricane; hurricanekatrina; katrina; livehurricanekatrina; tropical; weather
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To: Oystir

Yeah! That jog SW last night was a big surprise for the forecasters. You never know with a hurricane.


281 posted on 08/26/2005 10:38:53 AM PDT by tutstar (OurFlorida.true.ws)
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To: NautiNurse
Looks like the second landfall is going to be very nasty.

Stay safe, everybody.
282 posted on 08/26/2005 10:41:48 AM PDT by Termite_Commander (Warning: Cynical Right-winger Ahead)
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To: Howlin

She is BEAUTIFUL!!!! Thank you for sharing a picture with us!!


283 posted on 08/26/2005 10:46:49 AM PDT by trussell (Prayers for the children!)
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To: blam

284 posted on 08/26/2005 10:47:00 AM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: Strategerist

I agree that the SW jog last night was a surprise. Also, my nephew thinks tonights models will shift more west and he is pretty good with his assessments. He does not think it will go as far west as Texas but more west than the present models show.


285 posted on 08/26/2005 10:47:12 AM PDT by sheikdetailfeather
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To: sheikdetailfeather

The most reliable model (which is a an average of 4 models as I mentioned), the GUNA, now has a landfall in western Mississippi.

Often NHC forecast tracks are essentially the GUNA; however, they'll never shift a track that far west in one advisory; interesting to see how far they go; I think to the AL/FL border at 5PM and then further at 11PM.


286 posted on 08/26/2005 10:51:34 AM PDT by Strategerist
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To: Strategerist

Interesting observations. Thanks.


287 posted on 08/26/2005 10:52:35 AM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: blam
Thanks. (...just thanks!)

[g]

Been to Home Depot yet?

288 posted on 08/26/2005 10:52:42 AM PDT by mhking (The world needs a wake up call gentlemen...we're gonna phone it in.)
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To: NautiNurse

The 2:00 update hasn't come out yet - that's not a good sign...


289 posted on 08/26/2005 10:53:41 AM PDT by mhking (The world needs a wake up call gentlemen...we're gonna phone it in.)
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To: mhking

Was thinking the exact same thing. Is recon in there now?


290 posted on 08/26/2005 10:54:32 AM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: NautiNurse
Is recon in there now?

I just checked Weather Underground, and the Discussion isn't there yet either...

291 posted on 08/26/2005 10:55:54 AM PDT by mhking (The world needs a wake up call gentlemen...we're gonna phone it in.)
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To: mhking

I think Texans might want to take a closer look at this thing.


292 posted on 08/26/2005 10:58:44 AM PDT by eastforker (Under Cover FReeper going dark(too much 24))
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To: mhking
Hurricane Katrina Intermediate Advisory Number 13a

Statement as of 2:00 PM EDT on August 26, 2005

 
...Katrina moving west-southwestward away from South Florida and 
the Florida Keys...
...Tropical storm-force conditions still occurring through much of
the middle and lower Florida Keys...

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for all of the Florida
Keys and Florida Bay from Dry Tortugas northward... and along the
Florida Gulf Coast from south of Florida City westward and northward
to Longboat Key.  A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical
storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the
next 24 hours.

 
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for portions of the Florida
West Coast from north of Longboat Key to Anclote Key.  A tropical
storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area... generally within 36 hours.

 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

 

At 200 PM EDT...1800z...the center of Hurricane Katrina was located
near latitude 24.9 north... longitude 82.6 west or about 60 miles
west-northwest of Key West Florida. 

 
Katrina is moving toward the west-southwest near  8 mph. A gradual
turn toward the west is expected to occur later tonight or
Saturday.

 
Recent reports from an Air Force Reserve unit hurricane hunter
aircraft indicate maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph...
with higher gusts. Katrina is a category two hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the
next 24 hours...and Katrina could become a category three or major
hurricane on Saturday.

 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to  25 miles... from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to  85
miles.  During the past hour...a wind gust to 74 mph was reported
at the international Airport in Key West Florida...a gust to 66 mph
was reported at Dry Tortugas...and wind gusts to 40 mph and higher
extend as far east as Marathon in the middle Florida Keys.

 
The minimum central pressure recently reported by reconnaissance
aircraft was  969 mb...28.61 inches.

 
Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...
can be expected along the West Coast of Florida in areas of onshore
flow south of Venice... and in Florida Bay.  Storm surge should
continue to decrease this morning along the East Coast of Florida.

 
Katrina is expected to produce additional rainfall of 5 to 8 inches
over the Florida Keys and 3 to 5 inches over northwestern Cuba.
Isolated storm total amounts of 15 to 20 inches are possible over
the Florida Keys.

 
Isolated tornadoes are possible today over extreme southern Florida
and the Florida Keys.

 
Repeating the 200 PM EDT position...24.9 N... 82.6 W.  Movement
toward...west-southwest near  8 mph.  Maximum sustained
winds...100 mph.  Minimum central pressure... 969 mb.

 
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center 
at 500 PM EDT.

 
Forecaster Stewart

293 posted on 08/26/2005 11:00:09 AM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: eastforker
The new models are out -- they shift it further west, but keep it east of Texas. The scary thing is that New Orleans is now in play...


294 posted on 08/26/2005 11:00:14 AM PDT by mhking (The world needs a wake up call gentlemen...we're gonna phone it in.)
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To: mhking

Oh my...hey--what is that stray blue plot line doing way outside the map?


295 posted on 08/26/2005 11:03:05 AM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: NautiNurse

I dunno...


296 posted on 08/26/2005 11:03:36 AM PDT by mhking (The world needs a wake up call gentlemen...we're gonna phone it in.)
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To: All; rodguy911

WFLA AM radio in Tampa just reporting there was a tornado that touched down in Marathon in the early morning hours. Thinking of you down there, rodguy.


297 posted on 08/26/2005 11:03:59 AM PDT by STARWISE (GITMO IS TOO GOOD FOR THESE TRAITORS -- SEND THEM ALL TO EGYPT FOR QUESTIONING.)
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To: eastforker
You can see the dry air to the west of her... won't that Keep it from going further west?
298 posted on 08/26/2005 11:04:56 AM PDT by tutstar (OurFlorida.true.ws)
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To: mhking

The A98E can be ignored at all times of course...

Anyway, new ECMWF is out, it clips the LA Delta and hits Mississippi.

All the global models worth anything are LA or MS now.


299 posted on 08/26/2005 11:05:00 AM PDT by Strategerist
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To: mhking

So far that is. Each advisory keeps shifting it further west, gonna keep a close eye on it for sure, looks like a nasty one.


300 posted on 08/26/2005 11:06:46 AM PDT by eastforker (Under Cover FReeper going dark(too much 24))
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