I agree that the SW jog last night was a surprise. Also, my nephew thinks tonights models will shift more west and he is pretty good with his assessments. He does not think it will go as far west as Texas but more west than the present models show.
The most reliable model (which is a an average of 4 models as I mentioned), the GUNA, now has a landfall in western Mississippi.
Often NHC forecast tracks are essentially the GUNA; however, they'll never shift a track that far west in one advisory; interesting to see how far they go; I think to the AL/FL border at 5PM and then further at 11PM.