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Hurricane/TS Katrina Live Thread, Part II
NHC - NOAA ^ | 26 August 2005 | NHC - NOAA

Posted on 08/25/2005 11:51:53 PM PDT by NautiNurse

Katrina is emerging into the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico early this morning after making landfall in SE Florida, then tracking SW. Thus far, she is well ahead of schedule, leaving at least four fatalities in her wake, and well over 1 million without electricity.

The following links are self-updating.

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida

Images:


Key West Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Excellent South FL radar loop

Tampa Bay Long Range Radar Loop

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible


TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: Alabama; US: Florida; US: Louisiana; US: Mississippi
KEYWORDS: florida; hurricane; hurricanekatrina; katrina; livehurricanekatrina; tropical; weather
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To: silentknight

Storm KATRINA: Observed By AF #304

Storm #12 in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 81KT (93.2mph 150.0km/h) In NW Quadrant At 14:30:50 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 72.9KT (83.8mph 135.0km/h) *
Date/Time of Recon Report: Friday, August 26, 2005 10:34:00 (Fri, 26 Aug 2005 14:34:00 GMT)
Position of the center: 25° 03' N 082° 13' W (25.1°N 82.2°W)
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700mb: 2875m (Normal: 3011)
Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 45 KT (51.75MPH 83.3km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 031nm (35.65miles) From Center At Bearing 318°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 081KT (93.15mph 150.0km/h) From 014°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 013nm (14.9 miles) From Center At Bearing 306°
Minimum pressure: 971 mb (28.67in)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: OPEN N
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being Circular , 9nm (10.3 mi 16.7km) wide
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.02nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 2nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds


161 posted on 08/26/2005 8:07:27 AM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: NautiNurse

Hurricane Katrina Discussion Number 12

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 26, 2005

recent data from an Air Force recon aircraft indicates Katrina's
central pressure is much lower...now at 971 mb. Maximum 700 mb
flight-level winds are 81 kt in the northwest quadrant...which
supports at least 70 kt surface winds. However...the aircraft has
not sampled the winds in the eastern semicircle where NOAA/Key West
Doppler radar velocity data indicates winds as high as 91 kt at
around 3000 ft...which would support a surface wind estimate of
about 75 kt. The initial intensity of 70 kt may turn out to be a
little low.


The initial motion estimate is 265/6. Radar data indicates Katrina
has continued to move south of due west during the past 6 hours.
Most of the NHC model guidance indicates the track should flatten
out in a more westward direction during the next 12 hours as the
influence of an inverted trough over the Caribbean Sea decreases.
The mid-level subtropical ridge to the north and northwest of
Katrina is forecast by the all global and regional models to
gradually weaken through the forecast period as a strong shortwave
trough over the central U.S. Digs southeastward toward the northern
Gulf of Mexico and southeastern United States. The timing of the
erosion of the ridge and an induced northward motion of Katrina is
the main difference between the models...which has resulted in a
large spread after 48 hours. The NOGAPS and GFDN models have made a
large jump to the west over Louisiana...whereas the majority of the
NHC models take Katrina inland over the northeast Gulf Coast. The
official forecast track remains in the right portion of the model
guidance envelope.

Strengthening to a major hurricane is expected. In fact...a recent
dropsonde report received from the reconnaissance aircraft
indicates maximum winds are now up to 80 kt. So...a special
advisory will be issued shortly to update the current and forecast
intensities.

Forecaster Stewart

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 26/1500z 25.1n 82.2w 70 kt
12hr VT 27/0000z 25.2n 83.1w 75 kt
24hr VT 27/1200z 25.5n 84.3w 80 kt
36hr VT 28/0000z 26.2n 85.2w 85 kt
48hr VT 28/1200z 27.1n 85.9w 90 kt
72hr VT 29/1200z 29.5n 86.3w 100 kt
96hr VT 30/1200z 34.5n 83.5w 35 kt...inland
120hr VT 31/1200z 40.5n 77.0w 25 kt...dissipating inland


162 posted on 08/26/2005 8:11:31 AM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: NautiNurse
My wife just stuck her head in and asked if I knew what was going on with the storm (she was on the phone with her brother in Miami). I said just a second and checked here knowing that you would have something current...and you do....you're the best....

btw...Irene gave us (Long Island) four days of steady pulsing ground swell. The best waves of the summer, not too big but punchy.

163 posted on 08/26/2005 8:12:04 AM PDT by wtc911 (see my profile for how to contribute to a pentagon heroes fund)
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To: twin2
Oh, and bad news here, it looks like a lot of the MTV party tents blew down. Real shame.

NOT.

Glad to hear you faired well. We still have a couple of freepers down in that area to check in. They are probably waiting for their power to come back on.

debg (Miami)

IYAAYAS (Ft. Lauderdale)

Sam Cree (South of Miami)

rodguy911 (Keys)

164 posted on 08/26/2005 8:12:56 AM PDT by lifacs
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To: nwctwx

Starting to get that creepy feeling here...


165 posted on 08/26/2005 8:13:29 AM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: wtc911
checked here knowing that you would have something current...and you do....you're the best....

Glad to assist--thanks for your kind words. :o)

166 posted on 08/26/2005 8:15:38 AM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: nwctwx
Once again we have a storm that hasn't exactly "performed" as expected.

Radar data indicates Katrina has continued to move south of due west during the past 6 hours. Most of the NHC model guidance indicates the track should flatten out in a more westward direction during the next 12 hours

What I can't figure out is how come it made it across Florida in seemingly less time than expected. The forward speed didn't change, but I guess because it headed south, the diameter of the state is smaller than if it had gone straight across as expected.

167 posted on 08/26/2005 8:17:42 AM PDT by dawn53
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To: lifacs; debg; IYAAYAS; Sam Cree; rodguy911

Thank you very much for the list of So FL Freepers. We will continue to pray for their safety. Look forward to each of them checking in soon.


168 posted on 08/26/2005 8:18:10 AM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: NautiNurse

Just got telephone report from Marathon, they were pounded all night, still getting it. My place--open water Atlantic side, lost a few shingles.

Does anybody remember Weaver the Weatherman from Miami on the CBS local station in the 50's? The pilots that flew planes into the eye...the seeding experiments...I swear there were better forcasts and coverage then.


169 posted on 08/26/2005 8:19:06 AM PDT by lin
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To: NautiNurse

I just talked to my dad. He's a Red Cross volunteer and spent 3 weeks in Eastern NC when Isabel hit in 2003.

The Red Cross just called him and told him to pack his bags and be on standby. His group pre-positions in anticipation of disaster so I guess they're thinking Katrina is going to get a real nasty attitude by the time it gets to the panhandle.


170 posted on 08/26/2005 8:20:07 AM PDT by Rebelbase ("Run Hillary Run" bumper stickers. Liberals place on rear bumper, conservatives put on front bumper)
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To: NautiNurse

Should be cat 2 shortly. Not much will stop her from hitting cat3-4 IMO. Hopefully she hits in a weakening phase.


171 posted on 08/26/2005 8:20:53 AM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: dawn53
What I can't figure out is how come it made it across Florida in seemingly less time than expected.

How about 1.5 days earlier than predicted.

172 posted on 08/26/2005 8:21:03 AM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: Dog Gone
Oh just dammit anyway! I'm going to throw up...

sw

173 posted on 08/26/2005 8:21:55 AM PDT by spectre (Spectre's wife)
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To: Howlin

I haven't been to bed at all!






Well, I have, but not for long...lol.
Exciting night huh?
She's beautiful, Howlin.


174 posted on 08/26/2005 8:22:09 AM PDT by onyx (North is a direction. South is a way of life.)
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To: nwctwx
Not much will stop her from hitting cat3-4 IMO. Mind reader--was just going to ask you about the intensification conditions.
175 posted on 08/26/2005 8:23:13 AM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: nwctwx

The SSTs in the NE Gulf are like bath water. And no shear in sight. I think Katrina's gonna bomb out like Opal did, and all we can do is hope it bombs out and then weakens before it hits land.


176 posted on 08/26/2005 8:23:50 AM PDT by dirtboy (Drool overflowed my buffer...)
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To: nwctwx

Wasn't it supposed to be turning north by now?


177 posted on 08/26/2005 8:26:04 AM PDT by Aggie Mama
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To: Dog Gone
Check this out - they updated the sustained wind speed so fast, they forgot to adjust the gust speed:

100 mph already. Damn....

178 posted on 08/26/2005 8:26:19 AM PDT by dirtboy (Drool overflowed my buffer...)
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To: Dog Gone

Guess I better get into gear to return last night's rental car to the Tampa airport, where I left my vehicle.


179 posted on 08/26/2005 8:27:02 AM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: dirtboy

OH man!


180 posted on 08/26/2005 8:27:10 AM PDT by tiredoflaundry (9-11 Commission - The largest CYA Operation in history!)
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