Fayetteville war vet to challenge Hayes [NC-8, a prime Dem target]

Charlotte Observer ^ | August 25, 2005 | Jim Morrill

[southernnorthcarolina]

An Iraq war veteran and lawyer who helped mount a case against Saddam Hussein has become the first Democrat to challenge Republican U.S. Rep. Robin Hayes.

Tim Dunn of Fayetteville kicked off his bid Wednesday in the 8th District, which runs from Fayetteville to Charlotte.

A lieutenant colonel in the Marine Corps Reserves, Dunn spent eight months in Iraq in 2004. He advised a special tribunal prosecuting the former Iraqi leader and officials of his government.

Dunn said he has a "passion for what we're doing over in Iraq" but is troubled by the lack of equipment for U.S. troops and what he describes as a lack of vision by the administration.

"I'm concerned that our current congressman and administration don't have a strategy for winning," he told the Observer. "There needs to be a clearly defined strategy. ... Certainly I'm not advocating pulling people out right now. We invaded that country. We've got a mission to complete."

Dunn, 45, ran unsuccessfully for Congress in 1996, when he lost to fellow Democrat Mike McIntyre in the 7th District. Redistricting moved him to the 8th District.

Though Democrats enjoy a 22-point registration edge, President Bush has twice carried the district comfortably, and Hayes has won four times. But Democrats believe Hayes could now be vulnerable after his last-minute vote switch last month helped pass the Central America Free Trade Agreement.

"It concerns me when our incumbent congressman breaks his promise and provides us with another example ... of putting Washington politics ahead of our North Carolina families and jobs," Dunn said.

Hayes disputed the characterization.

"I commute to Washington ... and if I vote, it's in the best interests of the people I work with and represent," he said. Asked how he feels about the possibility of facing a war veteran, Hayes said, "That's kind of like (asking him) `How would you feel about running against a four-term incumbent who's represented his district well?' "

Hayes spokeswoman Carolyn Hern said her boss is prepared.

"Every year, Democrats say this is the year they're going to take Robin out," she said. "And every year they don't do it."

At least two other Democrats have been mentioned as candidates. A spokeswoman for Rep. Rick Glazier of Fayetteville said he is "seriously considering" a run, but won't decide until the session ends. Charlotte attorney Chris Kouri could not be reached.

[southernnorthcarolina]

North Carolina's 8th Congressional District has been a prime Dem target ever since Republican Robin Hayes narrowly won the seat in an open election (the Dem incumbent did not seek reelection) in 1998. The extent to which the Dems covet this seat may perhaps be seen by the redistricting plan drawn by the Dem-controlled NC General Assembly, effective with the 2002 election:



I apologize for the lack of county names on this map. But the erose gerrymandering is evident. Cabarrus County (it's the roughly triangular-shaped county in the northwest part of the district) casts about 25% of the district's vote. It is Hayes's base, and is strongly GOP (historically a big textile county -- and Hayes is a textile heir, by the way -- but now moving into high tech and diverse manufacturing, and rapidly suburbanizing, being on the northeast side of the Charlotte metro area). Hayes carried Cabarrus comfortably in 2002 and 2004. The district lines with respect to Cabarrus were little changed by the redistricting; Hayes lost a small western tip of the county.

Elsewhere in the 8th District, however, the line-drawing skills of the Dems are evident. Prior to 2002, the district included no part of Mecklenburg County (Charlotte). Now, however, a "finger" juts into a mostly low- to middle-income and heavily Dem-leaning part of Mecklenburg, which casts about 15% of the district's vote. Hayes lost it by a substantial margin in 2002 and 2004.

Perhaps the most critical change was the removal of the explosively growing and hyper-GOP western part of Union County (south of Cabarrus, and adjoining Mecklenburg to its southeast). This part of Union County (where this FReeper resides) was appended to Sue Myrick's utterly safe Republican 9th District; the remainder of Union County, still in the 8th, has not yet experienced the suburban boom to a great extent, and supplies Hayes with only an inconsequential edge.

Note also that Moore County (Pinehurst and Southern Pines, the heavily GOP home county of someone named John Edwards) was carefully excluded from the 8th (Moore is the big "notch" on the northeast side of the 8th, and is incorporated into Howard Coble's safely-GOP 6th).

Finally, there is another "finger," this one at the eastern extremity of the 8th, jutting into Cumberland County (Fayetteville/Ft. Bragg). Cumberland casts about 17% of the district's vote; Hayes won narrowly in 2002 and 2004, but may lose it in 2006 if, as I suspect, Dunn, with his military record, is the Dem nominee.

Most of the rest of the district is rural and Democrat-leaning, due to a large minority population; this part of the state is also one of the last outposts of the increasingly rare (white) Yellow Dog Democrats.

Rep. Hayes is, in my judgment, in serious trouble for the 2006 election, for at least four reasons:

• The district, as noted, was drawn for the specific purpose of ousting him. As before, the Dem nominee will be able to count on big-time help from the national Dem Party.
• It will be a non-Presidential election year. A popular GOP Presidential candidate (as president Bush was, and continues to be in this vicinity) is worth several points in the Congressional margin.
• The Dems ran bafflingly weak candidates in 2002 and 2004, yet managed to make the race close both times. In 2002, they ran Chris Kouri, a political novice (strike one), an attorney (strike 2), from Charlotte (strike three for the non-Charlotte 85% of the district), and a Catholic (maybe strike four; that could still make a marginal difference in some rural Bible Belt areas); Hayes won with 53.7% of the vote to Kouri's 44.6%, with the Libertarian candidate snaring 1.7%. In 2004, the Dems ran Beth Troutman, a former beauty queen (whose beauty had long since faded). She, too, was a political novice, and, to put it kindly, wasn't the sharpest knife in the drawer. Yet she, too, made a respectable showing, with Hayes taking 55.4% to her 44.6%. Now, it looks like the Dem nominee will be an Iraq war vet (should be especially popular in the Cumberland County precincts) with one previous Congressional run under his belt, and an apparently moderate platform.
• Finally, Congressman Hayes shot himself in the foot over CAFTA. For what it may be worth, I agree with his final "aye" vote (I may well be in a FReeper minority), but the way he arrived at the vote is disturbing. No good can come from promising, loudly and unequivocally, to vote one way on an issue of particular importance to one's district, and then reversing field at the last minute.

This race figures to be very close and very interesting. With about 90% of the Nation's Congressional Districts now safe for one party or the other due to "I'll scratch your back if you'll scratch mine" bipartisan gerrymandering, NC-8 could be in the National spotlight.

[Constitution Day]

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[SJSAMPLE]

This guy showed up, after the ground war finished, and acted in a purely legal capacity?

And he gets the title "Iraq War Vet"?

I showed up in Germany in 1988.
Am I a "WWII vet" ?

[JohnnyZ]

And if Iraq gets a Constitution and continues to build up and train their own military, and we begin withdrawing troops in 2006 (as I expect), will this challenger have any message left?

[billbears]

Yes, but remember that no military member, no matter how much they sacrified, can be a patriotic democrat

How partisan. But that's what it's all about these days isn't it? Screw principle, party over all.

"There needs to be a clearly defined strategy. ... Certainly I'm not advocating pulling people out right now. We invaded that country. We've got a mission to complete."

Sounds like most of the partisan Republicans. What's the difference? It's not as if there's a real difference between the parties for the most part anymore

[JohnnyZ]

Sounds like doublespeak to me. So he agrees with Bush's approach to Iraq, and only offers a vague "we need a strategy" as his platform? Typical BS, we've heard it before.

[AntiGuv]

Well, this may be interesting. Between NC-08 and NC-11 (Charlie Taylor) we might actually have two tossup congressional elections this cycle. Robin Hayes is definitely the more endangered of the two, I would think. We shall see!

[JohnnyZ]

The Hayes race was a 'tossup' the last two cycles as well. Heck, the Taylor race was supposed to be a 'tossup' in 2004 against "dream candidate" Patsy Keever.

We'll see where the chips fall after the hype is over.

[AntiGuv]

Patsy Keever was hardly a "dream candidate" for this district. She was a liberal Asheville councilmember who flip-flopped her way to defeat in the last couple weeks over abortion and same-sex marriage. My opinion is that you should not underestimate the potential vulnerability of Charlie Taylor, but he's faced deeply flawed opponents the past three cycles. Then again, the same might be said for Heath Shuler because he's a political neophyte, and they can be hard to predict. However, as for his profile, he's a far better match for this district than Patsy Keever was. I still think Charlie Taylor will win, but we will see.

[TaxRelief]

This guy will be so easy to "out". Not to worry...

[Deport Billary]

Hayes will be fine so long as his base does not erode in Cabarrus/Stanly counties.

[AntiGuv]

PS. And, actually, Charlie Taylor has faced weak challengers ever since he beat Jamie Clark in 1990. The closest thing to a worrisome opponent has been Maggie Lauterer in 1994 and Patsy Keever in 2004, and they were both flawed (and facing uphill battles as well due to the nature of those two cycles). I specified the last three elections though because those are the ones since his tax payment irregularities and other issues came up, which is what makes him vulnerable.

[billbears]

Typical BS, we've heard it before.

As we have from every other politician sitting in Washington. So what's the difference? Starting to hear the same from even Republicans these days.

What? You don't think we need a strategy? Changing the storyline of exactly what US armed forces are doing over there every few months doesn't seem to be working well as a strategy. May as well try something different.

[billbears]

I know you want to get Hayes back for his 11th hour defection.

No, I don't want to 'get back' Hayes for anything. Republicans and Democrats haven't voted by the Constitution for decades, why would they start just over CAFTA? Vote out every single politician that in this past Congress has cast a vote to waste money unconstitutionally. This includes healthcare bills, education bills, highway bills, and energy bills. I don't care if it leaves a single one of them in office. I'm sick and tired of politicians needlessly wasting money to pander for votes. If a conservative Democrat can do a better job than a free-spending Republican, I'd vote for them. As it is I usually don't waste a vote on either party anymore

[JohnnyZ]

What? You don't think we need a strategy?

We have a strategy. But thanks for being a principled, independent thinker and parroting the Democrat/MSM line.