Posted on 08/24/2005 6:20:56 AM PDT by NautiNurse
The twelfth tropical storm of the 2005 hurricane season is named Katrina. The following links are self-updating.
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
TD 12 Track Forecast Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Images:
Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Other Resources:
Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
...Tropical Storm Katrina strengthening over the central Bahamas... ...Heavy rainfall threat for the Bahamas tonight and Thursday...
a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for the Southeast Florida coast from Vero Beach southward to Florida City. This replaces the tropical storm watch. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the central and northwest Bahamas. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the middle and upper Florida Keys from west of the Seven Mile Bridge northward to south of Florida City. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
A watch or warning may be required for Lake Okeechobee later today. A Hurricane Warning may be required for portions of the northwest Bahamas later today.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 2 PM EDT...1800z...reports from an Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft indicate the center of Tropical Storm Katrina was reforming near latitude 25.2 north... longitude 77.0 west or about 30 miles... 50 km... east-northeast of Nassau and about 200 miles...320 km...east-southeast of the southeast coast of Florida.
Katrina is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph ...13 km/hr. A turn toward the northwest or west-northwest at a slightly slower forward speed is expected to occur tonight or early Thursday. This motion will bring the center through the central Bahamas today and the northwest Bahamas tonight and Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are estimated near 45 mph...75 km/hr...with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles ...110 km...mainly east of the center.
The minimum central pressure recently observed by reconnaissance aircraft was 1003 mb...29.62 inches.
Due to its slow forward speed...Katrina is expected to produce a significant heavy rainfall event over the central and northwest Bahamas...and South Florida... with total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 15 to 20 inches possible.
Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels... along with large and dangerous battering waves... can be expected near the center in areas of onshore winds in the Bahamas.
Repeating the 2 PM EDT position...25.2 N... 77.0 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 45 mph. Minimum central pressure...1003 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 5 PM EDT.
Forecaster Stewart
I showed your posting to my wife and she is of the impression that it won't interfere with my painting the bedroom.
Oh you made my day with that!
HEY ! Hey! Hey! We've had our share for a while. THINK ANYWHERE, but Pensacola,,
Thank You.
I sure wish I knew, lol.
And we all know where on the coast.
Not Panama City or even Destin like that track possibly projects to.
Nope, everyone at this forum knows. Katrina will visit blam's house.
A hurricane did almost exactly the same thing 13 years ago today. It was named Andrew.
The difference, though, was that Andrew exploded into a Cat 5 before Florida landfall, and then after emerging into the Gulf decided not to hit blam's house but chose instead to hit Dog Gone's house.
You must not live too far from me blam. I'm in Navarre, and I've been smacked by my share of storms over the past year. Are you in Mobile?
Ruh roh ... TS watch extended north to Titusville as of 5 PM.
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 24, 2005
...Katrina getting better organized over the central Bahamas...
...New watches and warnings issued for Florida...
at 5 PM EDT...2100z...a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch have been issued for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are now in effect for the Southeast Florida coast from Vero Beach southward to Florida City...including Lake Okeechobee. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. A Hurricane Warning will likely be issued for portions of the Hurricane Watch area later this evening.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the central and northwest Bahamas. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. A Hurricane Warning may be required for portions of the northwest Bahamas later tonight.
At 5 PM EDT...a tropical storm watch has been issued for the east-central Florida coast from north of Vero Beach northward to Titusville...including all of Merritt Island. A tropical storm watch is now in effect for the middle and upper Florida Keys from west of the Seven Mile Bridge northward to south of Florida City...and from north of Vero Beach northward to Titusville... including all of Merritt Island. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area... generally within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Katrina was estimated near latitude 25.6 north... longitude 77.2 west or about 45 miles... 70 km... north-northeast of Nassau and about 185 miles... 300 km...east of the southeast coast of Florida.
Katrina is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph...15 km/hr. A turn toward the west-northwest or west at a slower forward speed is expected to occur tonight or early Thursday. This motion will bring the center through the northwest Bahamas tonight and Thursday...and into the Florida Straits Thursday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph... 75 km/hr...with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles ...110 km from the center.
The minimum central pressure recently observed by an Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft was 1002 mb...29.59 inches.
Due to its slow forward speed...Katrina is expected to produce a significant heavy rainfall event over the central and northwest Bahamas...and South Florida... with total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 15 to 20 inches possible.
Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels... along with large and dangerous battering waves... can be expected near the center in areas of onshore winds in the Bahamas.
Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...25.6 N... 77.2 W. Movement toward...northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 45 mph. Minimum central pressure...1002 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 PM EDT.
Forecaster Stewart
bttt
Did you see this??
Yes, I'm on the west bay about 1/2 the way to to Dauphin Island.
BTTT
The latest update gave the forecasted path a sharp right turn and now has it is forecasted to hit around Appalachacola(sp), Florida.
That would be a nice break for you. I'll have to go play with the computer models to see why they're forecasting such a sharp right turn. I'm guessing they're forecasting the ridge that's keeping out from heading up the east coast to withdraw over the next few days.
I just read through the 5 PM discussion on the nhl/noaa site:
This is sort of an ominous statement:
"IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT WITH SSTS NEAR 31C AND A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOW
AND LANDFALL."
Program Notes: CBS4 News special coverage of Tropical Storm Katrina 5-8pm & 11pm-midnight. The CBS Evening News will not be seen. Late Show With Letterman at midnight. Late Late Show With Ferguson at 1:02am. Entertainment Tonight at 2:02am. The Insider at 2:32am. CBS4 News special coverage continues at 4am.I'm guessing that coverage will be simulcast (as it usually is for landfalling storms in South Florida) on WTVX-TV West Palm Beach.
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