LIVE THREAD: HURRICANE KATRINA (Cat 1)

NOAA-NHC ^ | 24 August 2005 | NOAA-NHC

[NautiNurse]

The twelfth tropical storm of the 2005 hurricane season is named Katrina. The following links are self-updating.

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
TD 12 Track Forecast Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[Dog Gone]

Actually, it seems that if you read the 5pm discussion, they don't know where the heck it's going to go and they're just splitting the difference between the various models.

Tropical Storm Katrina Discussion Number 5
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 24, 2005

 
satellite imagery...Doppler radar data from the Bahamas and Miami...
and the latest reconnaissance wind data indicate Katrina has
continued to become better organized this afternoon. Banding
features have increased in all quadrants and the upper-level
outflow has expanded and remains quite symmetrical. The initial
intensity of 40 kt is a blend of recon wind...38 kt flight-level
winds...and pressure data...1002 mb or roughly 43 kt...and
satellite intensity estimates of 45 kt from TAFB and AFWA. The
initial position estimate is a little to southwest of the 1949z
recon position and is close to the center of the larger-scale
circulation based on extrapolation of the zero-isodop pattern noted
in the NOAA/NWS Miami Doppler velocity data.

 
The initial motion estimate is 325/08. There is some uncertainty in
both the initial motion and the center position. I have tried to
blend the positions from recon...radar and satellite data. The last
recon position can be seen as a tight low-level vortex moving out
from underneath the deep convection in the east semicircle. It is
possible that that vortex may end up being a transient feature. If
it turns out that the center does end up farther north...then the
forecast track will have to be shifted slightly northward on the
next advisory. Other than the uncertainty in the initial position
...The rest of the forecast track and reasoning remains unchanged
from previous advisories. All of the NHC model guidance agree on
the subtropical ridge to the north of Katrina to keep building
slowly eastward...which ultimately forces the cyclone westward
across South Florida in 36-48 hours...and into the eastern Gulf of
Mexico by 72 hours. After that...however...the models differ
significantly on where and when Katrina is expected to turn
northward and make a second landfall along the northeast Gulf
Coast. The GFDN is the westernmost model and takes the cyclone to
New Orleans...whereas the GFS and Canadian models are the
easternmost models and take Katrina northeastward across the
northern Florida Peninsula. The official track is near the middle
of the guidance envelope and close to the model consensus.

 
With the improved banding features...symmetrical upper-level outflow 
...And relatively weak shear...at least steady intensification of a
normal rate of 10 kt per 12 hours until landfall occurs seems
justified. This is similar to the SHIPS intensity model...but much
less than the now very bullish GFDL model which brings Katrina to
111 kt just before landfall. It should be pointed out that with
SSTs near 31c and a low shear environment...conditions are
favorable for possible rapid intensification to occur between now
and landfall. This is suggested by the SHIPS model experimental
rapid intensification output...which indicates a 57 percent
probability of that occurring. The only inhibiting factor is the
dry air that surrounds Katrina and has been working its way into
the inner-core region and eroding the deep convection. If the dry
air mixes out within the next 12 hours...then intensities would
likely be higher than the official forecast is indicating.

Owing to the slow forward speed...Katrina has the potential to
produce a significant heavy rainfall and flooding event across the
central and northwest Bahamas...and eventually across South
Florida.

 
Forecaster Stewart

[aBootes]

they have it forecast to hit us TWICE as a hurricane

This always amazes me, every time it happens. And it seems to happen rather often. Is it the shape of Florida? The air movement patterns? The temperature of the water? How do you guys do it? You always get twice the weather the rest of us experience in August and September.

[floriduh voter]

Rain is good but I don't like my landscaping to tilt sideways for hours on end.

[floriduh voter]

Thanks for the thread NN.

[samantha]

What is Channel 7 saying? They always go crazy really fast, like when the storm comes off of Africa. I have to be in Broward in the Am but should be headed back up 27 by 1pm. I sure would like to know if I am going to drive through Monsoon weather on my way back home. In normal Summer weather the west side of Okeechobee is usually rough.

[Ellesu]

Thanks for the ping. Having lived here all my life we always have plenty of supplies in stock and just watch the weather and wait. The worse part is the traffic through BR when they evacuate other states, New Orleans etc. AND THE HUMID HEAT when the electricity goes out. Andrew was the worst, it was so hot.

[mhking]

Haven't checked them yet, but they are streaming on the web at mms://216.242.118.141/broadband (WMP)

[Dog Gone]

It is the shape of Florida and the fact that it has such a huge coastline. The water temperature has a lot to do with it, too, in terms of rebuilding storms that have crossed the peninsula.

Air movement patterns don't have anything to do with it, because those tend to shear and weaken storms rather than guiding them. It's domes of high pressure and troughs that steer the storm.

[Dominick]

It has to come on the weekend too....

[STARWISE]

For broadband users:

Miami Long-Range Radar

[juzcuz]

Found this link about a destruction of Florida. I pray that this does not happen.

http://www.injesus.com/Groups/ViewMessage.cfm?MessageId=MB0072L3&UCD=20z

[STARWISE]

For broadband users:

Great satellite view - washington.edu

[SE Mom]

This is SO cool- great link thanks!

[dc-zoo]

That's really an amazing view. Thanks.

[STARWISE]

I truly can't see the eye .. can you guys?

[SE Mom]

No...all I see is some intense rain and wind in the center-
so far doesn't look like much to fuss about...

[NautiNurse]

I believe it's the potential for rapid strengthening just prior to landfall that has folks concerned. High population density area--tough call at this point.

[NautiNurse]

Well, I am now 1500 miles from hurricane alley, in the heart of tornado alley...sheesh...

[dawn53]

Stay safe...didn't you say you'll be back by the weekend to keep us all in line on the weekend hurricane thread?

[CindyDawg]

Is that bad? I always thought during the week worse.