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LIVE THREAD: HURRICANE KATRINA (Cat 1)
NOAA-NHC ^ | 24 August 2005 | NOAA-NHC

Posted on 08/24/2005 6:20:56 AM PDT by NautiNurse

The twelfth tropical storm of the 2005 hurricane season is named Katrina. The following links are self-updating.

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
TD 12 Track Forecast Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible


TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: Alabama; US: Florida; US: Louisiana; US: Mississippi
KEYWORDS: florida; hurricane; hurricanekatrina; india; katrina; katy; livehurricanekatrina; tropical; weather
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To: blam
Actually, it seems that if you read the 5pm discussion, they don't know where the heck it's going to go and they're just splitting the difference between the various models.

Tropical Storm Katrina Discussion Number 5

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 24, 2005

 
satellite imagery...Doppler radar data from the Bahamas and Miami...
and the latest reconnaissance wind data indicate Katrina has
continued to become better organized this afternoon. Banding
features have increased in all quadrants and the upper-level
outflow has expanded and remains quite symmetrical. The initial
intensity of 40 kt is a blend of recon wind...38 kt flight-level
winds...and pressure data...1002 mb or roughly 43 kt...and
satellite intensity estimates of 45 kt from TAFB and AFWA. The
initial position estimate is a little to southwest of the 1949z
recon position and is close to the center of the larger-scale
circulation based on extrapolation of the zero-isodop pattern noted
in the NOAA/NWS Miami Doppler velocity data.

 
The initial motion estimate is 325/08. There is some uncertainty in
both the initial motion and the center position. I have tried to
blend the positions from recon...radar and satellite data. The last
recon position can be seen as a tight low-level vortex moving out
from underneath the deep convection in the east semicircle. It is
possible that that vortex may end up being a transient feature. If
it turns out that the center does end up farther north...then the
forecast track will have to be shifted slightly northward on the
next advisory. Other than the uncertainty in the initial position
...The rest of the forecast track and reasoning remains unchanged
from previous advisories. All of the NHC model guidance agree on
the subtropical ridge to the north of Katrina to keep building
slowly eastward...which ultimately forces the cyclone westward
across South Florida in 36-48 hours...and into the eastern Gulf of
Mexico by 72 hours. After that...however...the models differ
significantly on where and when Katrina is expected to turn
northward and make a second landfall along the northeast Gulf
Coast. The GFDN is the westernmost model and takes the cyclone to
New Orleans...whereas the GFS and Canadian models are the
easternmost models and take Katrina northeastward across the
northern Florida Peninsula. The official track is near the middle
of the guidance envelope and close to the model consensus.

 
With the improved banding features...symmetrical upper-level outflow 
...And relatively weak shear...at least steady intensification of a
normal rate of 10 kt per 12 hours until landfall occurs seems
justified. This is similar to the SHIPS intensity model...but much
less than the now very bullish GFDL model which brings Katrina to
111 kt just before landfall. It should be pointed out that with
SSTs near 31c and a low shear environment...conditions are
favorable for possible rapid intensification to occur between now
and landfall. This is suggested by the SHIPS model experimental
rapid intensification output...which indicates a 57 percent
probability of that occurring. The only inhibiting factor is the
dry air that surrounds Katrina and has been working its way into
the inner-core region and eroding the deep convection. If the dry
air mixes out within the next 12 hours...then intensities would
likely be higher than the official forecast is indicating.

Owing to the slow forward speed...Katrina has the potential to
produce a significant heavy rainfall and flooding event across the
central and northwest Bahamas...and eventually across South
Florida.

 
Forecaster Stewart

101 posted on 08/24/2005 3:15:06 PM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: Dog Gone
they have it forecast to hit us TWICE as a hurricane

This always amazes me, every time it happens. And it seems to happen rather often. Is it the shape of Florida? The air movement patterns? The temperature of the water? How do you guys do it? You always get twice the weather the rest of us experience in August and September.

102 posted on 08/24/2005 3:18:11 PM PDT by aBootes
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To: Joe Brower

Rain is good but I don't like my landscaping to tilt sideways for hours on end.


103 posted on 08/24/2005 3:18:45 PM PDT by floriduh voter (www.conservative-spirit.org Daily Newsfeeds & Weekly Update)
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To: NautiNurse; amdgmary; pickyourpoison; Dominick; windchime; cyn; tutstar; 8mmMauser

Thanks for the thread NN.


104 posted on 08/24/2005 3:19:45 PM PDT by floriduh voter (www.conservative-spirit.org Daily Newsfeeds & Weekly Update)
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To: mhking

What is Channel 7 saying? They always go crazy really fast, like when the storm comes off of Africa. I have to be in Broward in the Am but should be headed back up 27 by 1pm. I sure would like to know if I am going to drive through Monsoon weather on my way back home. In normal Summer weather the west side of Okeechobee is usually rough.


105 posted on 08/24/2005 3:21:51 PM PDT by samantha (Cheer up, the adults are in charge.)
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To: LA Woman3

Thanks for the ping. Having lived here all my life we always have plenty of supplies in stock and just watch the weather and wait. The worse part is the traffic through BR when they evacuate other states, New Orleans etc. AND THE HUMID HEAT when the electricity goes out. Andrew was the worst, it was so hot.


106 posted on 08/24/2005 3:26:03 PM PDT by Ellesu (www.thedeadpelican.com)
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To: samantha
Haven't checked them yet, but they are streaming on the web at mms://216.242.118.141/broadband (WMP)
107 posted on 08/24/2005 3:26:40 PM PDT by mhking (The world needs a wake up call gentlemen...we're gonna phone it in.)
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To: aBootes
It is the shape of Florida and the fact that it has such a huge coastline. The water temperature has a lot to do with it, too, in terms of rebuilding storms that have crossed the peninsula.

Air movement patterns don't have anything to do with it, because those tend to shear and weaken storms rather than guiding them. It's domes of high pressure and troughs that steer the storm.

108 posted on 08/24/2005 3:28:50 PM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: floriduh voter

It has to come on the weekend too....


109 posted on 08/24/2005 4:12:01 PM PDT by Dominick ("Freedom consists not in doing what we like, but in having the right to do what we ought." - JP II)
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To: nwctwx; All
For broadband users:

Miami Long-Range Radar

110 posted on 08/24/2005 5:08:49 PM PDT by STARWISE (GITMO IS TOO GOOD FOR THESE TRAITORS -- SEND THEM ALL TO EGYPT FOR QUESTIONING.)
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To: All

Found this link about a destruction of Florida. I pray that this does not happen.

http://www.injesus.com/Groups/ViewMessage.cfm?MessageId=MB0072L3&UCD=20z


111 posted on 08/24/2005 5:17:55 PM PDT by juzcuz
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To: nwctwx; NautiNurse; All
For broadband users:

Great satellite view - washington.edu

112 posted on 08/24/2005 5:29:40 PM PDT by STARWISE (GITMO IS TOO GOOD FOR THESE TRAITORS -- SEND THEM ALL TO EGYPT FOR QUESTIONING.)
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To: STARWISE

This is SO cool- great link thanks!


113 posted on 08/24/2005 5:41:32 PM PDT by SE Mom (God Bless those who serve)
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To: STARWISE

That's really an amazing view. Thanks.


114 posted on 08/24/2005 5:51:11 PM PDT by dc-zoo
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To: dc-zoo; SE Mom

I truly can't see the eye .. can you guys?


115 posted on 08/24/2005 5:53:39 PM PDT by STARWISE (GITMO IS TOO GOOD FOR THESE TRAITORS -- SEND THEM ALL TO EGYPT FOR QUESTIONING.)
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To: STARWISE

No...all I see is some intense rain and wind in the center-
so far doesn't look like much to fuss about...


116 posted on 08/24/2005 6:08:17 PM PDT by SE Mom (God Bless those who serve)
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To: SE Mom

I believe it's the potential for rapid strengthening just prior to landfall that has folks concerned. High population density area--tough call at this point.


117 posted on 08/24/2005 6:29:30 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: mhking; rodguy911; dawn53; floriduh voter

Well, I am now 1500 miles from hurricane alley, in the heart of tornado alley...sheesh...


118 posted on 08/24/2005 6:45:04 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: NautiNurse

Stay safe...didn't you say you'll be back by the weekend to keep us all in line on the weekend hurricane thread?


119 posted on 08/24/2005 7:02:42 PM PDT by dawn53
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To: Dominick

Is that bad? I always thought during the week worse.


120 posted on 08/24/2005 7:04:51 PM PDT by CindyDawg ( FreeRepublic.." Sight" of the free and supporters of the brave.)
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