Don't sell Harris short in '06

The Hill ^ | 8-17-2005 | David hill

[bilhosty]

Last week, GOP Rep. Katherine Harris of Florida kicked off her campaign to unseat Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson. While this should be a much-ballyhooed quest in Republican circles, too few GOP insiders seem to be excited by Harris’s launch. This is a mistake.

Katherine Harris is going to win this election for reasons that I’ll outline in this column. But before making the case that needs to be made, let me make a few disclosures. Yes, I did poll for Harris’s successful bids for secretary of state and Congress. But since 2003, I have not served Harris, providing me an opportunity for an objective view of her candidacy.

Harris’s advantages start with her celebrity status, coupled with the low expectations that surround her bid. Let’s face it: Voters today are more interested in celebrities than in politicians. More Americans read People than Time. More people follow “American Idol” than C-SPAN’s “Road to the White House.”

Celebrity commands attention. When Katherine Harris comes to town, people will want to get in on the action. And because of the nature of criticism that the media have aimed at Harris, people will expect her to disappoint.

But when voters see Katherine as she really is — a smart, vivacious and engaging woman — they will be shocked. Pleasantly shocked. There is no way that Katherine Harris won’t exceed expectations, and that’s a major plus.

Expectations are a competitive advantage too. Bill Nelson will always underperform his résumé. Floridians accustomed to statewide officeholders of the stature of Jeb Bush, Bob Graham, Lawton Chiles and even lately Mel Martinez will be disappointed every time they are exposed to the incumbent Democrat. He’s a yawner. “How did this guy ever win?” they’ll wonder. Nelson reached the Senate only by besting an even more boring former Rep. Bill McCollum.

[NautiNurse]

[johnny7]

Great... get together with NautiNurse and have a caucus.

[M Kehoe]

Great... get together with NautiNurse and have a caucus.

Hmmm...Interesting. Let's see what happens. This is gonna be fun.

5.56mm

[NautiNurse]

Great... get together with NautiNurse and have a caucus.

LOL--you should be spending your precious time and resources cleaning your own house rather than wasting your petulant remarks on us. Give us a yell when you have the Massachussetts US Senate under control. Let us worry about Florida.

[JulieRNR21]

LOL--you should be spending your precious time and resources cleaning your own house rather than wasting your petulant remarks on us. Give us a yell when you have the Massachusetts's US Senate under control. Let us worry about Florida.

---

Johnny....from our past exchanges about other FL races I recall you act like you are an expert on FL politics....yet you still reside in MA.

I suggest you put your political expertise into helping the MA GOP get viable candidates that can unseat Kerry & Kennedy!

[JohnnyZ]

Johnny....from our past exchanges about other FL races I recall you act like you are an expert on FL politics....yet you still reside in MA.

I have never resided in Massachusetts.

I can, however, spell "Katherine Harris" and "unpopular" and read polls, which puts me way ahead of a whole peck (or, indeed, pack) of Floridians in terms of knowledge of that state's politics.

At this point it looks like either Harris will be nominated, or some pro-abort like Foley. Harris could possibly win but she'll have a hell of a time of it. I'd give Foley and his ilk a wide berth.

[HitmanLV]

There is no excuse to give this one back to Nelson. Lets hope for victory!

[JulieRNR21]

OOPS......I meant to address that post to 'johnny7' not you.

Sorry about that goof!

[Rockingham]

Unfortunately, the poll numbers show that Harris has problems. Is that fatal to her candidacy? Not at all, but Harris has not seemed willing to acknowledge her problems or come up with ways to alleviate them. She is not foolish though and may yet come to grips with political necessity.

There is an old Hollywood adage that one can cast with type or against type. The tough part is that due to human nature, we are all prone to play to type and take advice to be different as an implicit criticism of who we are. Even when a candidates accepts the necessity of playing against type, it is hard to pull off effectively.

What Harris needs to do is to adopt a plainer, less flashy look and deliver substantive, thought-provoking campaign speeches to discerning audiences such as Chambers of Commerce and professional groups. For media critics, Harris needs to go from being seen as a shallow, over made-up flibbertigibbet who helped steal an election for Bush to being seen as a plain spoken, no-nonsense conservative who is not in the pocket of the Bush boys.

In a round of such campaign debut speeches, Harris could send locally influential community leaders walking out of the room saying, "Wow, Harris is not at all like she has been portrayed." They need to think she reminds them of Condi Rice or Margaret Thatcher instead of the image of Katherine Harris that so much of the public has accepted.

Suggested speech topics and approaches:

(1) Adamant, Steve Forbes-like advocacy of the flat tax. The flat tax is political catnip to Republican audiences and the public at large and is good tax policy. Harris has the profound advantage of being a lot easier on the eyes than Forbes and could swiftly emerge as a national advocate for the flat tax.

(2) Resolute support for the war in Iraq in terms that are blunt and comprehensible as a fighting strategy:

"We are in a global war on terror. Our troops are in Iraq fighting and killing terrorists. That is how you win a war on terror: you fight and kill terrorists. If we do not fight and defeat the terrorists in Iraq, where do the critics expect to do so? New York, Washington, or ______ boulevard?" [Using the name of the town's main drag].

"I do wish that the Bush administration would stop trying to explain our fight against terrorism in Iraq in apologetic terms or as some form of social work. It is not. We are in a war against terrorists, and we are killing them in Afghanistan and Iraq instead of waiting again for them to come and attack us at home. God bless our troops in Iraq -- and God bless them for the job they are doing and doing so courageously and well."

The close juxtaposition of killing and "God bless our troops" is deliberate and meant to provoke controversy from the news media and the hand-wringing Left. Harris's answer to such criticism ought to be blunt and forceful: "God expects good men and women to oppose evil, and by taking up arms when necessary. I am sure that most of the American public and most of the Iraqi public agree on this. I reject anyone who thinks that our troops in Iraq are not on the side of good or that the terrorists are not evil."

(3) Harris ought to take up immigration in a way that is implicitly critical of the Bush administration while being supportive and approving of legal immigrants.

"We need to fully protect our borders, enforce the immigration laws now on the books, and strongly promote education and assimilation for legal immigrants. This has to be done now, even without a guest worker program, and not after half of Mexico has moved here illegally."

That will send Harris' Ben Hill Griffin family business managers into a private uproar, but no one could accuse Harris of being soft on illegal immigration for the sake of cheap agricultural labor for her own sake.
_________

Such a round of speeches ought to be combined with campaign ads along the same lines. Would the speeches and ads that I have outlined here generate controversy? Absolutely, but Harris would be on the popular and strategically sound side of such controversies and talk about her makeup and clothes sense would fall by the wayside.

In but six weeks, Harris could redefine herself, seize hold of the issues, and make any new entrants into the race have to run hard to catch up. From the very start, opposing candidates would be forced to say "me too" to Harris's positions, make some sort of criticism and take the politically losing side, or avoid comment.

With Harris critical of the Bush administration, their reservations about her candidacy would soon be seen as policy differences rather than a matter of Harris as being a weak candidate. The press would soon take up the line that the Bush team was foolish to antagonize Harris.

The corrosive Harris-stole-the-election-for-Bush rap would also lose coherence. Oddly, some of the media people who now promote it will turn and subvert it by taking up Harris as a foil against Bush.

As this analysis suggests, I am not hostile to Harris. Yet, as a realist, I know that the course I have outlined here is contrary to Harris's inclinations and stock political advice. Most political candidates and campaigns are cloddish rather than nimble even if they need to be nimble to win -- and telling them to be nimble usually makes little difference. We shall see what Harris is made of.

[johnny7]

HA! We'll chalk it up to “the whiskey 'talkin”.

[white trash redneck]

would they not be HELPING Harris by trying to convince her to stay in the House rather than lose a Senate race

Yes, their advice could be considered help, and I'm sure that many Republican operatives have advised Harris. However, it's clear that she has chosen to disregard their advice and make a run for the Senate. What I am complaining about is the absence of overt support, and the appearance of opposition from above, now that the time for confidential advice has passed.

To reiterate, Harris took a bullet for the President in 2000, and they are now asking her to take another bullet for the good of the party.

I think she deserves better.

[KC_Conspirator]

Sorry for the last post. I am hungover and have not had my coffee yet.

I looked and found that most of the "people in the know" who said Harris would not win were MSM types.

[JulieRNR21]

HA! We'll chalk it up to “the whiskey 'talkin”.

Nope....it was too many 'Johnny's' posting about the FL Senate race......LOL

JohnnyZ (NC) & Johnny7 (MA)

[johnny7]

LOL! I got you pegged kid... nazdrovya tovaritch!

[Wyoming Cowboy]

Can we change the rules please?