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AP running with skewed poll results
NewsBusters ^ | August 15, 2005 | Lyford Beverage

Posted on 08/16/2005 11:21:29 AM PDT by Ooh-Ah

The main political headline from the AP today is the results of an AP-Ipsos poll taken a week ago. Bush Approval a Low for Recent 2-Termers reports that President Bush's job approval is down to 42% with 55% disapproving. That certainly sounds disturbing, or at least it would if he were running for anything again. But looking at it again, something suspicious jumps out.

The partisan divide for Bush is stark — 80 percent of Democrats disapprove of his overall performance while nearly 90 percent of Republicans approve.
For the past several years, the conventional wisdom has been of a "50-50" America, a country divided evenly between Republicans and Democrats. Republicans have beaten Democrats at the National level in the last several election cycles. If the numbers are fairly close, and the Republican approval rating is higher than the Democratic disapproval rating, how can his approval rating be that bad? If 38% of the sample is Democratic, and 38% is Republican, then he'd have to have a 0% approval rating among independents to have an overall 42%, and that's not realistic. So I went digging around the Ipsos web site, and found the topline results. What they've got is a sample of adults, rather than registered voters. And they've sampled 39% Republicans and 49% Democrats. So that 42% approval rating that they're flouting is a fake number, a number that doesn't represent political reality. But it certainly sounds bad for the President, which seems to be the AP's raison d'etre...

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TOPICS: Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: ap; apbias; assininepress; bullzogby; bush; democrats; mediabias; poll; polls; propaganda; republicans; zogbyism
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1 posted on 08/16/2005 11:21:31 AM PDT by Ooh-Ah
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To: Ooh-Ah

You have got to be kidding me. They oversampled democrats by 10%?


2 posted on 08/16/2005 11:22:39 AM PDT by KC_Conspirator (This space outsourced to India)
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To: KC_Conspirator

It appears that when the MSN needs numbers they just work it until they get 'um.


3 posted on 08/16/2005 11:26:14 AM PDT by PeteB570
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To: Ooh-Ah

The zogbyism of the MSM continues. Shouldn't be a surprise really. They tried to steal the 2004 election by discouraging Republicans from going to the polls on election day by running with such skewed figures.

The left even claimed the Republicans "had" to have stolen the election because the polls showed they would win.


4 posted on 08/16/2005 11:30:52 AM PDT by weegee (The Rovebaiting by DUAC must stop. It is nothing but a partisan witchhunt.)
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To: PeteB570; KC_Conspirator
Think of it as the new math.
5 posted on 08/16/2005 11:31:05 AM PDT by .cnI redruM (The 9-11 Commission is an act of Errorism.)
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To: Ooh-Ah

Here are the poll internals for presidential approval that the AP has been running with all year in terms of party I.D. The first column of results are for August working back each month to January.

Republicans 39% 42% 40% 42% 41% 39% 39% 43%
Democrats 48% 51% 50% 49% 48% 47% 52% 49%
Independents 13% 7% 10% 9% 11% 14% 9% 8%
Total: 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Registered 79% 77% 80% 79% 82% 78% 76% 80%
Breathing 21% 23% 20% 21% 18% 22% 24% 20%
Total: 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Approve 42% 42% 43% 47% 44% 48% 45% 49%
Disapprove 55% 56% 55% 51% 54% 50% 54% 49%
Total: 97% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 99% 98%


6 posted on 08/16/2005 11:34:33 AM PDT by MikeA
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To: Ooh-Ah
In related news today the Sun rose in the East!! The Stone Age Press shows their hatred once again.

Pray for W and Our Freedom Fighters

7 posted on 08/16/2005 11:37:25 AM PDT by bray (Pray for the Freedom of the Iraqis from Islam)
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To: Ooh-Ah
Good article, thanks.

The RNC has its own private polls on many subjects that we never get to see. They usually know what people are really thinking.

8 posted on 08/16/2005 11:40:25 AM PDT by bayourod (Winning elections is the only thing Those who glorify losing are unclear on the concept of democrac)
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To: Ooh-Ah

The MSM still hasn't gotten the memo that GWB isn't running in 2008.

They have conditioned me to not believe a damn thing they say anymore, now I just wish they would go away.


9 posted on 08/16/2005 11:44:44 AM PDT by TheForceOfOne (The alternative media is our Enigma machine.)
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To: MikeA
Republicans 39% 42% 40% 42% 41% 39% 39% 43% Democrats 48% 51% 50% 49% 48% 47% 52% 49%

This must be based on registrations.

Since we know DUmmies like to register multiple times and of course every cemetary in the U.S. has a DUmmie registration drive EVERY election cycle.

ROTFLMPJO

10 posted on 08/16/2005 11:48:11 AM PDT by Mister Baredog ((Minuteman at heart, couch potato in reality))
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To: Ooh-Ah

I thought that everyone knew 78.35% of all statistics are made up on the spur of the moment!


11 posted on 08/16/2005 11:48:33 AM PDT by jimmango
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To: Ooh-Ah
And they've sampled 39% Republicans and 49% Democrats. So that 42% approval rating that they're flouting is a fake number, a number that doesn't represent political reality. But it certainly sounds bad for the President, which seems to be the AP's raison d'etre...

Before you get too cocky, how was the sample for previous monthly approval rating surveys taken. I doubt this is an outlier. It may not be as low as AP says but the Presidents approval rating is still awfully low and headed in the wrong direction. Bush needs to start communicating better than he has been to get it back up.

12 posted on 08/16/2005 11:58:44 AM PDT by Dave S
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To: Ooh-Ah

It's common knowledge that out of all the major polling organzations, AP-Ipsos is always the most bogus and inaccurate. I think they were the only one that had Kerry winning a majority of the popular vote in '04.


13 posted on 08/16/2005 12:01:03 PM PDT by jpl
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To: Ooh-Ah
All things remaining the same having an even split of GOP and RATS would give Bush an approval rating on over 50%.
14 posted on 08/16/2005 12:04:21 PM PDT by Mike Darancette (Mesocons for Rice '08)
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To: Ooh-Ah
A 10% oversample of rats and they didn't poll likely voters ....

That's getting close to that "booing" article AP released during the election when no one actually booed.

15 posted on 08/16/2005 12:07:11 PM PDT by hawkaw
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To: Ooh-Ah

Even Rasmusen has been infected with liberal MSM bias. He has Bush in the 40's as well. Is there any accurate poll out there?


16 posted on 08/16/2005 12:10:27 PM PDT by balch3
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To: Ooh-Ah
"Lies, damn lies and statistics (These polls.).- Mark Twain

"This quote from Mark Twain is accurate; statistics are often used to lie to the public because most people do not understand how statistics work."- BBC

17 posted on 08/16/2005 12:44:10 PM PDT by Daaave (Didn't you get the memo on that? I know I sent you one.)
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To: balch3
1) President Bush has said he will not run for Mayor of Washington, D.C. ... and I believe him.

2) ALL of the polls, Rasmussen included, are polling anyone over 18, regardless of being registered to vote, or having an IQ under 70, or even knowing any cabinet members, etc.

3) Other than making the msm feel good because they can point to "bad Bush numbers" the thing they fail to realize is that the only people that pay attention to political polls during non-election times, know better.

4) These polls did not include sindy shehawg's band of 100 peace protesters, or Bush's numbers would be much lower.

5) My outlook about any poll, "Who gives a sheite?"
18 posted on 08/16/2005 2:25:27 PM PDT by USS Alaska (Nuke the terrorist savages - In Honor of Standing Wolf)
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To: KC_Conspirator
You have got to be kidding me. They oversampled democrats by 10%?

Given the margin of victory Bush had it's not even just 10%. There are MORE republicans than democrats. It's probably more like 12 to 15% they oversampled.

19 posted on 08/16/2005 3:31:11 PM PDT by highlander_UW (I don't know what my future holds, but I know Who holds my future)
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To: Ooh-Ah
As posted on today's Rush Limbaugh show. He calls it trash. Bush's approval rating is well over 50%. How the MSM can get away with such a travesty is the question of the century.

(Denny Crane: "Sometimes you can only look for answers from God and failing that... and Fox News".)
20 posted on 08/16/2005 6:20:33 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)
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