Posted on 08/16/2005 2:09:39 AM PDT by Lukasz
The director of the programmes of Russia and CIS at the German council on foreign policy, Alexander Rar, believes that Germany may become the “main advocate” of Ukraine in the European Union.
In his interview to the BBC Ukrainian Service he said that if the Christian Democratic Party, CDU, wins the election, “the attitude towards Ukraine will change”.
“Ukraine will thus get a real chance to obtain a strategic friend, when the issue of Ukraine’s accession to the Union arises”.
In addition, Ukraine has won lots of sympathies after the orange revolution; many more than Russia, “which is said to be drifting towards a new dictatorship”.
However, according to Rar, there are several “very influential structures, mostly in business, that have been collaborating with Russia for the last 30 years”. These structures will not allow the chancellor to change Germany’s foreign line.
Rar is somewhat disappointed with the situation in Ukraine eight month since the new government has taken power in Ukraine.
“With such countenance and political support from the European Union Ukraine could do so much more”, said Rar.
To begin with, the government should “make friends with the western business”.
“Unfortunately, today reminds me the early years of Kuchma or the last years of Kravchuk, when Ukrainian politicians were saying that Ukraine should be admitted to NATO and only then Ukraine would be able to reform itself. And when the West was saying ‘No, conduct the reforms first and get an entry ticket like that’, Ukraine was getting offended, saying ‘No, you have to reward us for handing over our nuclear weapons and for separating from the Soviet Union’”, said Rar.
Alexander Rar believes that it remains to be resolved “whether Ukraine’s integration is an elitist idea and in reality is not based on the public support”.
“The it will be easier for Ukraine and the West to communicate”, said Rar.
Alexander Rar is influential person in CDU? I think that his statement a bit contradict with Merkel attitude towards expansion of the EU.
Never heard of Mr. Rar. He isn´t even a CDU-member, as I read it. Mrs. Merkel is opposed to the admission of Turkey to the EU, like 60% of all Europeans, and she is very reluctant of further expansions. From our view, we should first get used to the EU of 25 before accepting new offers from other countries. In the long run it is very likely that the Ukraine becomes a EU-member - unlike Turkey or Russia. But the Ukraine would also be the eastern frontier.
As I through.
From our view, we should first get used to the EU of 25 before accepting new offers from other countries. In the long run it is very likely that the Ukraine becomes a EU-member
I agree with you about Ukraine. Nobody expect that Ukraine will join immediately, they are not ready anyway. What is important to give them a prospect of the membership.
I think that sooner or later European elites will try to push in Turkey as well.
I haven't heared about Mr. Rar either.
It is quite obvious that the Ukraine needs a chance to join in, ....but.... since the referendums in France and NL the will of our gouvernments to risk anything anymore is completely blocked... The standpoint of the CDU is to wait for a while before new memberships in the EU are even discussed. They suggested for Turkey a "privileged relationsship". Although this would be not a bad idea for the moment, the Turks felt deeply insulted. They claim everything immediately or they refuse everything. This package deal is a quite idiotic stance. One of the Problems with Turkey are the subliminal tensions between Germans and Turkish guest workers. Everybody in Turkey knows, that many of the voters of the CDU (not necessarily its representants) have dumb prejudices against Turks. Therefore Mrs. Merkel and her party have a difficult standing in contacts with the Turkish leaders.
The "privileged relationsship" could be also a good thing or the Ukraine, as long it is discussed in a intelligent way with them.
"Never heard of Mr. Rar."
Neither have I. Backbencher at best
"It is quite obvious that the Ukraine needs a chance to join in, ....but.... since the referendums in France and NL the will of our gouvernments to risk anything anymore is completely blocked... The standpoint of the CDU is to wait for a while before new memberships in the EU are even discussed."
That is actually the crux of the matter: Even those governments that favor EU membership for states like Turkey have to accept, that this won't be possible for the next 15 years or so, because it will never pass the necessary referendums in all the EU nations (or at least those that have referendums). Is Schroeder really so stupid to think that the Irish want to pay for Turkish farmers in the near future? No, talk of Turkish EU membership is just a ploy to lure German voters with Turkish ancestry into voting for the SPD.
So, EU membership for Ukraine in the near future is also very unlikely, although the demographics are not quite as scary as in the case of Turkey.
BUT: It is true that there will be a shift in German foreign policy under Angela Merkel. Why? Because Schroeder was always only concerned about his poll numbers and his popularity, that's why he championed the Turkish cause and showed consideration for Vladimir Putin and Russian sensitivities.
Merkel, on the other hand, grew up under a socialist regime and thus has a lot of sympathy for young, east European democracies, even if that means vexing Russia sometimes. That's also why she esteems George W. Bush because she believes that supporting the spread of democracy is the right thing to do.
Plus, the "priviledged partnership" might be just the right tool for that. Ukraine would profit from European subsidies and open access to European markets without the stress on the Ukrainian economy and social systems full EU membership would entail. After all, the EU still is a very competitive market: If they joined tomorrow, EU companies would probably buy most of the "cheap" Ukranian companies while "cheap Ukranian labour" would flood "affluent" neighbors like Poland. The "priviledged partnership" might be just the right tool to facilitate the transition to western standards.
So in a way, yes, Germany might be much more sympathetic towards the Ukrainian cause. If that means EU membership in the end remains to be seen. But it would certainly mean an end to the criminal neglect of "the new Europe" by the Schroeder administration.
It is funny that Schroeder want to have a permanent seat in the UN Security Council and in the same time he refuse to take any responsibility for spreading democracy, even in his neighborhood.
"It is funny that Schroeder want to have a permanent seat in the UN Security Council and in the same time he refuse to take any responsibility for spreading democracy, even in his neighborhood."
Not really. Here in Germany Schroeder is also known for his "Basta-Politik", aka. "My way or the highway". Schroeder secretly admires Putin because that's the way he'd prefer to govern, too.
"....BUT: It is true that there will be a shift in German foreign policy under Angela Merkel. Why? Because Schroeder was always only concerned about his poll numbers and his popularity, that's why he championed the Turkish cause and showed consideration for Vladimir Putin and Russian sensitivities.
Merkel, on the other hand, grew up under a socialist regime and thus has a lot of sympathy for young, east European democracies, even if that means vexing Russia sometimes. That's also why she esteems George W. Bush because she believes that supporting the spread of democracy is the right thing to do...."
BuHuHaHa! Merkel is as interested in her poll popularity as Schroeder is it.
A little example:
She and her secretary Kauder would not have joined in into Schroeders middle east policy if they could ignore the will of their voters:
http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/0,1518,369874,00.html
(Sorry - just in German, but it is not worth to translate this BS)
Her party excluded like Schroeder the millitary option to prevent a Iranian nuclear warhead. This is undermining the position of President Bush, the Polish government etc. etc. etc.. The reasons are simple: There is a vast majority of Germans who refuse any kind of war except defending Germany itselves. Even though she will not provoke the US like Schroeder did, she will not help in Iraq or elsewhere at all. Therefore the Germans will vote for her.
Although I wish for several reasons that Angela Merkel will become the next chancellor, the relations between eastern Europe and Germany will be much more complicated under her reign than under Schroeder.
The reasons are simple:
1. In difference to Schroeder she has to consider the interests of the expelled, since they are a fundamental part of her own party, the "conservative" CDU. Therefore it is quite likely, that a change in the politcal leadership in Germany is going to lead to a a centre against expulsions in Berlin, which will be focused on the suffering of German victims of the final phase of WWII. I am afraid, that Poland and the Czech republic have only little possibility to take influence on certain decisions in Berlin if the CDU/CSU will make the race. The new gouvernment under Merkel will also put some pressure on the Czechs because of the continuous validity of the Beneš-Dekrees.
All this BS will lead to some irritations, but not to real problems between our countries, because Merkel will not emphasize on material compensation. => Nothing but hot air.
2. Many voters (not nessesarily the leaders) of the CDU have dumb prejudices against eastern Europeans. This will make it difficult for Merkel (who wants to be re-voted) to give Ukraine or other Nations a real chance... This will be a real problem.
I told wolf before, that I do not trust in anything anymore.
I don’t think that Bush seriously is considering military option. As well I don’t think that Polish government has any official policy towards Iran, we have more important problems with Belarus and Russia. So it is hard to say that she is undermining our position.
In difference to Schroeder she has to consider the interests of the expelled, since they are a fundamental part of her own party, the "conservative" CDU. Therefore it is quite likely, that a change in the politcal leadership in Germany is going to lead to a a centre against expulsions in Berlin, which will be focused on the suffering of German victims of the final phase of WWII. I am afraid, that Poland and the Czech republic have only little possibility to take influence on certain decisions in Berlin if the CDU/CSU will make the race. The new gouvernment under Merkel will also put some pressure on the Czechs because of the continuous validity of the Beneš-Dekrees.
Yes she visited Poland today and spoke about her ideas. I think that if Polish government is unable to stop her, then at least they should control the works. We need to establish common commission with historians from interested countries and what is important try to minimize Steinbach’s influence.
I do not think so either but it is not very wise to take pressure from the Iranians.
It will be under Steinbachs supervision. That is the price for stauch voters. Politicians are everywhere the same...
P.S. Do not be upset since it is not worth the anger. As I already said - nothing but hot air.
Does not must be, she wants the center, maybe she get what she want. But international and neutral commission should control the project. She lied once that she was expelled, nobody trust her now.
I do not concentrate all my attention to this case but better to be careful.
"I don’t think that Bush seriously is considering military option. As well I don’t think that Polish government has any official policy towards Iran, we have more important problems with Belarus and Russia. So it is hard to say that she is undermining our position."
That is just the point: Right now even Bush doesn't really consider the military option, whereas Schroeder tries to give the impression that an invasion of Iran is imminent. And yes, I would have preferred that Merkel, like Schäuble, had used a stronger language against Schroeder in this matter.
"Yes she visited Poland today and spoke about her ideas. I think that if Polish government is unable to stop her, then at least they should control the works. We need to establish common commission with historians from interested countries and what is important try to minimize Steinbach’s influence."
Indeed, she visited POLAND today, not Russia, not China! And I definitely see a difference between the question of what kind of museum to build, which is ultimate an internal affair of the respective country (Otherwise - should we complain that the "Trail of tears" doesn't feature prominently enough in museums in Washington?) and German foreign policy, which would be far more Poland-friendly under Angela Merkel.
Even the Polish politicians (and I know, there are some hotheads east of the border *LOL, just like we have over here) like Kwasniewski, Belka or Tusk realize, that it's the foreign policy that counts in the end.
Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, too. Or maybe Wisconsin should annex Germany.
"Germany ought to consider annexing Ukraine and Russia because of the large number of ethnic Germans living there."
No! After the multitude of problems Germany encountered because of reunification we don't have the slightest desire to annex anything for a long, long time. Well, except for Switzerland, maybe *LOL!
"...Indeed, she visited POLAND today, not Russia, not China!..."
HALLELUJA!
"...Well, except for Switzerland..."
BuHuHaHa! Probably because it is a real democracy (We discussed this in another thread)?? I am afraid that any invasion would be a bloody nightmare for the agressor since the Swiss have reason and are able to defend themselves.
:-)
Remember that Kwasniewski and Belka are slowly becoming melody of the past and nobody is crying in Poland. Recently Tusk took the lead in the presidential polls, but he is already four candidate who is leading the polls, so you cannot be sure that their attitude will win.
Indeed, she visited POLAND today, not Russia, not China!
Well, probably Schroeder also visited Poland as one of the first countries, but later he became monothematic. We will see :-)
"...She lied once that she was expelled, nobody trust her now..."
As far as I know Erika Steinbach was expelled as a baby. Is this information wrong?
Hey maybe you want to annex Kaliningrad, I know that RusIvan would be glad!
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