"....BUT: It is true that there will be a shift in German foreign policy under Angela Merkel. Why? Because Schroeder was always only concerned about his poll numbers and his popularity, that's why he championed the Turkish cause and showed consideration for Vladimir Putin and Russian sensitivities.
Merkel, on the other hand, grew up under a socialist regime and thus has a lot of sympathy for young, east European democracies, even if that means vexing Russia sometimes. That's also why she esteems George W. Bush because she believes that supporting the spread of democracy is the right thing to do...."
BuHuHaHa! Merkel is as interested in her poll popularity as Schroeder is it.
A little example:
She and her secretary Kauder would not have joined in into Schroeders middle east policy if they could ignore the will of their voters:
http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/0,1518,369874,00.html
(Sorry - just in German, but it is not worth to translate this BS)
Her party excluded like Schroeder the millitary option to prevent a Iranian nuclear warhead. This is undermining the position of President Bush, the Polish government etc. etc. etc.. The reasons are simple: There is a vast majority of Germans who refuse any kind of war except defending Germany itselves. Even though she will not provoke the US like Schroeder did, she will not help in Iraq or elsewhere at all. Therefore the Germans will vote for her.
Although I wish for several reasons that Angela Merkel will become the next chancellor, the relations between eastern Europe and Germany will be much more complicated under her reign than under Schroeder.
The reasons are simple:
1. In difference to Schroeder she has to consider the interests of the expelled, since they are a fundamental part of her own party, the "conservative" CDU. Therefore it is quite likely, that a change in the politcal leadership in Germany is going to lead to a a centre against expulsions in Berlin, which will be focused on the suffering of German victims of the final phase of WWII. I am afraid, that Poland and the Czech republic have only little possibility to take influence on certain decisions in Berlin if the CDU/CSU will make the race. The new gouvernment under Merkel will also put some pressure on the Czechs because of the continuous validity of the Beneš-Dekrees.
All this BS will lead to some irritations, but not to real problems between our countries, because Merkel will not emphasize on material compensation. => Nothing but hot air.
2. Many voters (not nessesarily the leaders) of the CDU have dumb prejudices against eastern Europeans. This will make it difficult for Merkel (who wants to be re-voted) to give Ukraine or other Nations a real chance... This will be a real problem.
I told wolf before, that I do not trust in anything anymore.
I don’t think that Bush seriously is considering military option. As well I don’t think that Polish government has any official policy towards Iran, we have more important problems with Belarus and Russia. So it is hard to say that she is undermining our position.
In difference to Schroeder she has to consider the interests of the expelled, since they are a fundamental part of her own party, the "conservative" CDU. Therefore it is quite likely, that a change in the politcal leadership in Germany is going to lead to a a centre against expulsions in Berlin, which will be focused on the suffering of German victims of the final phase of WWII. I am afraid, that Poland and the Czech republic have only little possibility to take influence on certain decisions in Berlin if the CDU/CSU will make the race. The new gouvernment under Merkel will also put some pressure on the Czechs because of the continuous validity of the Beneš-Dekrees.
Yes she visited Poland today and spoke about her ideas. I think that if Polish government is unable to stop her, then at least they should control the works. We need to establish common commission with historians from interested countries and what is important try to minimize Steinbach’s influence.