Posted on 07/31/2005 12:35:15 PM PDT by Jefferson2000
PRINCETON, NJ -- A new Gallup Poll finds a decline in George W. Bush's job approval rating. After standing at 49% approval in the prior two CNN/USA Today/Gallup polls conducted this month, now just 44% of Americans say they approve of Bush, a new low mark for the president. The poll also shows a drop in Bush's favorable rating to 48%, which is the first time it has dropped below 50% since Gallup began tracking this opinion in 1999. Four in 10 Americans are satisfied with the way things are going in the country, which is essentially unchanged from early July. The poll shows continued positive momentum for the Democratic Party in terms of national party identification and ratings of the two major political parties, both of which were evident before the drop in Bush approval occurred.
Recent Gallup Polls have shown growing positive momentum for the Democratic Party, even while Bush's ratings were somewhat higher. For example, the July 22-24 CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll found 52% of Americans rating the Democratic Party favorably, while just 46% give a favorable rating to the Republican Party. When the question was last asked in April, each party was rated favorably by 50% of Americans.
Additionally, Gallup has observed a consistent edge for the Democrats in terms of national party identification in its recent polls. In the current poll, 33% say they are Democrats, 28% Republicans, and 37% independents. This is the fourth consecutive poll in which Democrats have outnumbered Republicans in Gallup Polls.
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
>>A closer look at the data reveals that Bush's recent approval ratings were higher because of independents' more positive evaluations, which have now returned to their late June levels. Republicans' and Democrats' evaluations of Bush have been more stable in recent weeks.<<
We cannot just win with the base, we have to win moderates.
In other words, they oversampled Democrats. Well, duh!
>>In other words, they oversampled Democrats. Well, duh!<<
Exactly! This is a perfect example of the media making news. They take a poll so it tells them what they want it to. Where is the Rasmussen number anyway?
Yeah. Whatever.
You keep publishing polls, we'll keep getting the agenda done. As I've said before, I wish I were as "dumb" as this president, or at least had half the success he has.
49% today, I think. But that's adults. As Rasmussen points out, the real number (likely voters, i.e. the more serious people) is probably 2-3 points higher. That's pretty much where Bush has been since 2003.
The results have nothing to do with the answers, Gallup just plays with the sample percentages until the results match what they want.
They could take an unbiased poll that nets Bush a 70% approval rating, and all they'd have to do is play with the sampling and they could make it 10% if they wanted to.
Prediction: Next week, Gallup runs a poll headline: BUSH APPROVAL RATING DOWN TO 1%!!!!(Among Democrats)
This is what they do with the Liberals in Canada. My guess is that the more the Liberal friendly media reports that thier side is higher in the polls the better. Some kind of psychology at work here.
>>The results have nothing to do with the answers, Gallup just plays with the sample percentages until the results match what they want.<<
I agree, but I also think that the base isn't enough. We have to win moderates also. The reason for this number (according to gallup anyway wink wink) is not because of any change among either base or party (there was none) but because of change among independents. They are the ones who decide Bush's approval and the election. Without them Bush would have 30% approval. With them he would have 70% They decide everything.
>>This is what they do with the Liberals in Canada. My guess is that the more the Liberal friendly media reports that thier side is higher in the polls the better. Some kind of psychology at work here.<<
One difference. Canada actually is a socialist snakehole.
White House Leak Has Little Effect on Bush Honesty Ratings
Gallup Poll News, DC - Jul 28, 2005
by Jeffrey M. Jones.
A new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll suggests that George W. Bush's personal honesty rating has not suffered from the probe into White House ...
Can't argue with that.
>>White House Leak Has Little Effect on Bush Honesty Ratings <<
Libnuts failed in their propagnda campaign. Oh well they can always trash Rice.
Intelligent observations like yours makes FR worth my time.
Once again, according to the last census, the population of the US is approximately 296,765,326. Any poll that samples less than 10% of the population cannot be relied upon for accuracy. So, unless the poll surveyed 29.6 million people, then it's garbage.
Yeah right. Bush went right in 2000 and 2004 and won. Moderates smoderates
Enough said.
BTW, how many of those so-called "independents" are really Dims, Greens and other Leftists. Almost all reporters are registered independents, yet we know most always vote with the Dims.
There is. The media is doing everything possible to pump up Democrats. Pollsters play many games, such as polling "adults" rather than "likely voters," polling on weekends, not weighting samples by party affiliation or other politically relevant variables, polling heavily during holidays and vacation months, and so on.
But none of this changes the fact that Democrats don't give people positive reasons to vote for them. They are, and remain, the party of no. They attempt to define themselves solely by opposing everything Bush and the Republicans do, without offering constructive solutions of their own. This is how and why they have become a permanent minority party. No polling tricks will change the underlying fundamental political realities.
And most DemocRATS refer to themselves as "independents" to keep from becoming embarrassed.
Actually, you can make very good predictions based on sample sizes of as few as 1,500 people. But the sample must be truly random and represent likely voters. This poll illustrates perfectly what happens when you oversample Democrats -- you get results skewed towards Democrats. As I said above, well duh! The sample may or may not be random, but it doesn't represent the people who actually decide elections.
>>Yeah right. Bush went right in 2000 and 2004 and won. Moderates smoderates<<
Guess what. Bush didn't win because of support from his party. He won because he won enough independents. Most of the independents are not as rock solid as you and I (otherwise they would call themselves republicans). We win soley do to the will of the independents. There is no guarentee just enough indys will vote rep next time unless we appeal more to them (the problem is the more we appeal to them, the less conservative our tone).
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