Posted on 07/24/2005 8:35:14 PM PDT by AzaleaCity5691
Order to evacuate entire county went against advice Sunday, July 24, 2005 By JEFF AMY and BILL FINCH Staff Reporters By calling for all of Mobile County to flee during Hurricane Dennis, local officials went against the prevailing wisdom of hurricane planners nationwide and disregarded federally sponsored evacuation guidance adopted by county emergency management officials five years ago.
"Run from the water, hide from the wind," is the phrase long used by the National Hurricane Center to sum up its advice on evacuations.
That means people who live in areas that might be flooded by storm surge should get out, while people on higher ground usually should consider staying put, unless they live in mobile homes.
But Mobile County's 400,000 residents were ordered to run from the wind as well as Dennis approached. Thousands of them ultimately heeded the mandatory call, making treks as far away as Louisiana, Georgia, Texas and Tennessee.
The county's top emergency officials said Friday that they were motivated by the threat of extreme winds and a lack of safe shelters. They also said that they are re-evaluating their course for future storms, leaving open the possibility that calls for countywide evacuations may still take place, just not be mandatory.
Dick Cashdollar, Mobile's public safety director and a former member of the emergency management's governing board, said that "there was some whole new ground plowed during Dennis. ... I'd never heard of a countywide mandatory evacuation."
In telling the entire county to leave effective July 9, officials didn't follow a federally sponsored hurricane evacuation plan that includes evacuation zones.
That plan does not recommend a countywide evacuation, even for the most severe hurricane. The only at-risk areas identified in the plan are those south of Interstate 10, and east of Interstate 65 and U.S. 43.
(Excerpt) Read more at al.com ...
This was without a doubt one of Bob Riley's 'shinig' moments. My family and I didn't evac, have no plans to evac as we live in North West Mobile County.
I saw this as nothing but a power play between The Red Cross (which refused to open shelters) and Mobile Emergency Management (which said they would open shelters). Of course good ole Bob *had* to side with the Red Cross, *just* in case we do get seriously smacked.
I'm sorry, I'd rather have to worry about dying in my home because of a tree falling on it, than to be stranded on the Highway.
Well, the flip side of this is, had the thing done what is was supposed to do, and some of the non-certified shelters had well, collapsed, during the storm, then of course, everyone would be holding Mike Dean responsible.
It's a no win, though I will say this. On September 13, 1979, after I went outside, and looked at what Frederic had managed to do besides scare us for a night, I decided at that point in time never to stay for any storm that was near that strong or worse.
I remeber Fred. Not a nice ride true. Try being on the Mobile side of Camille, Fred was a kitten (even as a direct hit) compared to her.
The thing is (and I agreed with Emergency Management on this) is that alot of people *couldn't* leave, no money and no transportation. Even a non Cat 3 or higher shelter was a better bet than some of the homes these people live in daily.
It was a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" situation. I just think that ordering the entire County to evac should have been handled in a better way.
And I'm still curious as to why, in this day and age, the new schools we've built aren't up to that category code.
Makes you wonder who's designing the schools, and why, when we live in an area that is suseptible to hits every year more inland shelters aren't available.
Well, the thing is, while it is true that in Andrew, maximum sustained winds made it to 175 mph, most of the damage you saw in Homestead, Florida City, etc, was done by sustained winds of 115-120.
In Camille, those winds extended halfway into Jackson County. (I was 7 in Camille, but I do remember that Camille was the one time that my father actually did evacuate for a storm, he heard 180 on the radio that morning and it scared him to death)
The dangerous assumption that has been made is, Camille was a once in a lifetime thing, even though according to the Alabama State Climatology Office, a Camille-like storm should make landfall in Alabama this century, as we are now overdue.
Basically, let's say you take Camille, and have it on a forward motion of 15 mph (so it can reach MCL in an hour and a half), and you bring it in on a track moving straight north where it literally cuts through Mobile County. Basically, the eye travels right up Cody Road.
Hurricane Camille maintained Category 4 sustained winds more than 30 miles inland (which would be Midtown Mobile), and at landfall, winds only dropped to 150 mph sustained when you got 20 miles east of the center at Keesler. You can read this all in the NHC report on the storm.
Basically, if Camille II takes this doomsday track, there will be 30 feet of water downtown, because people around here don't seem to like to board up, at least 35% of the houses in Mobile will be destroyed, and I'm willing to say 70% of houses in Prichard.
We really are a disaster waiting to happen, because the truth is, most homes in his area are built to withstand sustained winds of around 100 mph. We didn't even see that in the city in Frederic, though we saw gusts like it.
Inland wind damage is something that has never been taken seriously around here because we've never really seen truly bad winds, the worst of Frederic was confined primarily to Grand Bay, and other areas on the western fringe of the county.
Basically, to sum up what I just said, if a Camille like storm had a track in which the eye tracked straight through the middle of Mobile County, there would be over 1,000 casualties, most from wind damage
agree with all you said, exept for the 70% of Prichard would be destroyed. I'd put that at 100% myself ;) Especially the way it is now. (big grin).
The point I was making, and still make, is that shelters must be opened. Not everyone has the money, or transportation to leave, and schools built (at least 3 in the past nine years) are NOT capable of handling cat 3 or stronger.
Now you and I both know, there is no way to "Hurricane Proof" a building (i.e. Homestead Military Base which was 'supposed' to be able to withstand an Atomic blast; Wish those contractors were still alive), but when you have something like Fred, Camille, Andrew et all, shelters are still a way to save lives, and must be opened. As someone who lived in Prichard (when it *was* a nice place to live) the old Vigor High School was still a better bet than some of the homes built off the ground, with no anchors in such a doomsday scenario.
And thanks for making me not feel like an old-timer. You remember Camille well too. :)
'Despite its distant location, the circulation driven by Franklin was helping blast Florida with hot, humid air. Many parts of the state had heat-index readings of 105 degrees or more on Saturday.
A heat advisory was posted for northwest portions of the Panhandle through Monday, and forecasters warned that little, if any, of the state would soon get relief from the oppressively hot, sticky temperatures.
The heat index on Sunday reached 110 at Tyndall Air Force Base, 108 in Orlando and 105 in Miami Beach.'
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.