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America's Truth Deficit
The New York Times ^ | July 18, 2005 | WILLIAM GREIDER

Posted on 07/19/2005 10:52:08 AM PDT by Willie Green

Washington -- DURING the cold war, as the Soviet economic system slowly unraveled, internal reform was impossible because highly placed officials who recognized the systemic disorders could not talk about them honestly. The United States is now in an equivalent predicament. Its weakening position in the global trading system is obvious and ominous, yet leaders in politics, business, finance and the news media are not willing to discuss candidly what is happening and why. Instead, they recycle the usual bromides about the benefits of free trade and assurances that everything will work out for the best.

Much like Soviet leaders, the American establishment is enthralled by utopian convictions - the market orthodoxy of free trade globalization. The United States is heading for yet another record trade deficit in 2005, possibly 25 percent larger than last year's. Our economy's international debt position - accumulated from many years of tolerating larger and larger trade deficits - began compounding ferociously in the last five years. Our net foreign indebtedness is now more than 25 percent of gross domestic product and at the current pace will reach 50 percent in four or five years .

For years, elite opinion dismissed the buildup of foreign indebtedness as a trivial issue. Now that it is too large to deny, they concede the trend is "unsustainable." That's an economist's euphemism which means: things cannot go on like this, not without ugly consequences for American living standards. But why alarm the public? The authorities assure us timely policy adjustments will fix the matter.

(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Government
KEYWORDS: alas; alasandalack; corporatism; despair; disinformation; doommerchants; dustbowl; eeyore; freetrade; globalism; grapesofwrath; hateamericaright; joebtfsplk; lies; mediabias; propaganda; puppets; sackclothandashes; thebusheconomy; wearedoomed; willielogic
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To: The Electrician
I'm sure it took much pain to say those things about Mother Russia and Uncle Joe's Empire.

Such is the case with mothers.
21 posted on 07/19/2005 11:20:13 AM PDT by Das Outsider
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To: Willie Green
Greider was the reason I stopped reading Rolling Stone, so I suppose I should at least be grateful to him for that.

But I'm not. From the looks of it, he hasn't - as the left likes to say - "grown."

22 posted on 07/19/2005 11:20:50 AM PDT by niteowl77 (I DEMAND that Chuck Schumer explain his hair.)
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To: Willie Green
Well it's not as if I have any reasonable expectation that either of you will attempt to refute the substantive points of this article. LOL! I already know how THAT part of this post is gonna play out.

Willie, you can't refute what ain't there. If there were any substantive points in the article, there are plenty of intelligent folks on FR to refute them.

23 posted on 07/19/2005 11:22:44 AM PDT by TChris ("You tweachewous miscweant!" -- Elmer Fudd)
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To: All

Here is my reply to the substance of the article......BWAAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

The sun is shining and some fool says that it's dark and you expect us to take him seriously? It's not like the NYT doesn't print that the sky is falling every single day.

Why would any right thinking individual give the time of day to a rag that simply exists to provide liberals a forum?


24 posted on 07/19/2005 11:24:53 AM PDT by texan75010
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To: Das Outsider
I think you mean "Mothas," don't you? At least that is what we call them here in New York.
25 posted on 07/19/2005 11:25:10 AM PDT by CasearianDaoist
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To: Always Right
OK, let's just ignore that our economy has been growing at about 4% for the last 3 years

You probably want us to also ignore that our Trade Deficit and National Debt have grown much faster than that, too.

26 posted on 07/19/2005 11:31:12 AM PDT by Willie Green (Some people march to a different drummer - and some people polka)
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To: Willie Green

World trade isn't a zero sum game, where we lose if they win (this is the old mercantilist fallacy, committed by governments even today). When the US unemployment is 5%, income tax receipts are up $90 billion, and GNP growth approaching 4% the trade defect is clearly not a problem. All those dollars will have to come back some day (you can only really spend them here), and in the mean time our dollars help to add liquidity to the international market place. The people who complain about jobs going overseas, are complaining about nothing with 5% unemployment anyone who wants to work can find a job here now. So what if other nations do well, our success is enhanced by success elsewhere. Are we like the French, that we need others to do poorly so we can feel like we're doing better than them.


27 posted on 07/19/2005 11:32:22 AM PDT by Eagle74 (From time to time the tree of liberty must be watered with the blood of tyrants and patriots)
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To: Willie Green

It must have been hard for the NYT these precent years. They clearly miss the guidance and direction of the old Pravda even thouh they constanly strive to take the position that Pravda would have ordered had it still been the mouthpiece of the Soviet Union.


28 posted on 07/19/2005 11:34:33 AM PDT by Tacis ("Democrats - The Party of Traitors, Treachery and Treason!")
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To: Always Right; All

I heard this same crap when Reagan was President. Nothing about the trade deficit while Billy Bob was President.


29 posted on 07/19/2005 11:36:45 AM PDT by KevinDavis (the space/future belongs to the eagles, the earth/past to the groundhogs)
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To: CasearianDaoist

Muthas, mothas, muvas...You say "tomato", I say "tamito." ;)


30 posted on 07/19/2005 11:40:25 AM PDT by Das Outsider
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To: Always Right
Good morning.
"The point of the article???? What is that, that the US is near collasps like the Soviet Union was????"

Wishful thinking on the part of the author and the author's fellow travelers?

Michael Frazier
31 posted on 07/19/2005 11:42:11 AM PDT by brazzaville (No surrender,no retreat. Well, maybe retreat's ok)
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To: Willie Green
You probably want us to also ignore that our Trade Deficit and National Debt have grown much faster than that, too.

Is that accurate? I don't have number in front of me, but debt as a % of GDP has been rising, but is still lower than what it was 10 years ago, and with the growth rates of this year, should flatten. Also, compared to other industrialized countries, I think the ratio is pretty much in line.

32 posted on 07/19/2005 11:47:50 AM PDT by Wayne07
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To: Das Outsider
So now you are going to go and bring the fruits into it. I thought we where talking about something else all together.
33 posted on 07/19/2005 11:49:19 AM PDT by CasearianDaoist
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To: Always Right

The latest on unemployment is actually 5.0% after July has added ~146,000 jobs to the economy. Also, the tax cut resulted in 14% increase in revenues and the deficit fell by $100 bln. That is on top of what you sais. We are definitely going down.


34 posted on 07/19/2005 11:49:43 AM PDT by Mi-kha-el ((There is no Pravda in Izvestiya and no Izvestiya in Pravda.))
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To: Eagle74
Good morning.
"World trade isn't a zero sum game, where we lose if they win..."

The truth is that if we lose badly enough, the world loses, too.

If our house of cards crumbles the rest of the worlds economies get buried in the rubble. It would certainly make for interesting times.

Michael Frazier
35 posted on 07/19/2005 11:52:32 AM PDT by brazzaville (No surrender,no retreat. Well, maybe retreat's ok)
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To: Willie Green

I believe the Campaign Finance Reform Act disallows the NYTimes from using the word "truth" on any of its pages. /sarcasm


36 posted on 07/19/2005 11:54:33 AM PDT by <1/1,000,000th%
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To: MrShoop
Is that accurate? I don't have number in front of me, but debt as a % of GDP has been rising,

Well, yeah. If debt as % of GDP is rising, then debt is increasing faster than GDP.

37 posted on 07/19/2005 11:54:35 AM PDT by Willie Green (Some people march to a different drummer - and some people polka)
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To: Willie Green
Sorry, should have said has not been rising, here is the data from: http://www.econstats.com/weo/C172V006.htm

Year 	United States
Govt gross debt in percent of GDP
Ratio 	percent change
  1980 	  43.600	 
  1981 	  42.600	  -2.3%
  1982 	  47.600	  11.7%
  1983 	  50.800	  6.7%
  1984 	  52.500	  3.3%
  1985 	  56.800	  8.2%
  1986 	  60.400	  6.3%
  1987 	  62.100	  2.8%
  1988 	  62.900	  1.3%
  1989 	  62.800	  -0.2%
  1990 	  64.800	  3.2%
  1991 	  69.100	  6.6%
  1992 	  71.400	  3.3%
  1993 	  73.300	  2.7%
  1994 	  72.400	  -1.2%
  1995 	  72.600	  0.3%
  1996 	  72.300	  -0.4%
  1997 	  69.900	  -3.3%
  1998 	  66.200	  -5.3%
  1999 	  62.800	  -5.1%
  2000 	  57.100	  -9.1%
  2001 	  56.600	  -0.9%
  2002 	  58.600	  3.5%
  2003 	  60.500	  3.2%
  2004 	  61.000	  0.8%
  2005 	  61.900	  1.5%
  2006 	  62.000	  0.2%

38 posted on 07/19/2005 11:56:39 AM PDT by Wayne07
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To: Willie Green
and here are the current account number as a % of GDP, which unlike the debt numbers are worrisome, though the last couple of years show strong GDP growth is beginning to lower the ratio.
Year 	United States
Current account balance in percent of GDP
Ratio 	percent change
  1980 	  0.1000	 
  1981 	  0.2000	  100.0%
  1982 	  -0.2000	  -200.0%
  1983 	  -1.1000	  450.0%
  1984 	  -2.4000	  118.2%
  1985 	  -2.8000	  16.7%
  1986 	  -3.3000	  17.9%
  1987 	  -3.4000	  3.0%
  1988 	  -2.4000	  -29.4%
  1989 	  -1.8000	  -25.0%
  1990 	  -1.4000	  -22.2%
  1991 	  0.1000	 
  1992 	  -0.8000	  -900.0%
  1993 	  -1.2000	  50.0%
  1994 	  -1.7000	  41.7%
  1995 	  -1.5000	  -11.8%
  1996 	  -1.5000	  0.0%
  1997 	  -1.6000	  6.7%
  1998 	  -2.4000	  50.0%
  1999 	  -3.2000	  33.3%
  2000 	  -4.2000	  31.2%
  2001 	  -3.8000	  -9.5%
  2002 	  -4.5000	  18.4%
  2003 	  -4.8000	  6.7%
  2004 	  -5.7000	  18.7%
  2005 	  -5.8000	  1.8%
  2006 	  -5.0000	  -13.8%

39 posted on 07/19/2005 12:00:42 PM PDT by Wayne07
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To: MrShoop
Sorry, should have said has not been rising,

Sure it is.
Your data shows it's risen every year, from 56.6% in 2001 to 61.9% this year.
It hasn't risen steadily, which is why the percentage change fluctuates a little. But the percent change figures are all +, which indicates a rise instead of a decline.

40 posted on 07/19/2005 12:11:32 PM PDT by Willie Green (Some people march to a different drummer - and some people polka)
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