Hurricane Emily

NHC-NOAA ^ | 13 July 2005 | NHC

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Emily resources--the links are self-updating for handy reference:

NHC Hurricane Public Advisory Updates Currently published every three hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET.

NHC Hurricane Discussion Updates Published every 6 hours 5A, 11A, 5P, 11P ET

Caribbean IR Loop

Caribbean Visible Loop (Only works during daylight hours)

Puerto Rico Long Range Radar Loop

Hurricane Track Forecast

Hurricane Model Projections

Emily Forecast Track Archive Loop Great for reviewing the 3 day and 5 day historic track positions

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[Dog Gone]

Terrific. That suggests that Emily will be strengthening even further as it approaches landfall.

Mexico can have this one.

[Miztiki]

Changing tagline.

[Sam Cree]

Good luck with the surgery tomorrow. Hope the pain will abate soon. Drink milk.

I'll tell my wife to be careful with her portable. Although her machine's usual attempt at mischief is its habit of sitting on a random table with its power wire suspended at just below knee level, out of sight, between itself and the wall socket.

I broke my ankle in 3 places in my 20's. For years I could feel approaching cold fronts and thunderstorms, but I have finally lost that ability. I wonder if that means it takes years for these things to heal completely.

[eastforker]

The five day forecast has it at 94X22, any hint about steering currents after that? BTW that is where Alicia developed.

[Dog Gone]

The models pretty much stop after 5 days, and they'd be so unreliable beyond that point that we wouldn't trust them anyway.

I think we can say with some assurance that Emily will either cross the Yucatan or shoot the Channel and get into the Western Gulf or Bay of Campeche.

There it would be expected to strengthen and probably hit Mexico or Texas. There doesn't seem to be any hint of front that would sweep it northeast. It's just going to be a function of how rigid the high to the north remains.

[Miztiki]

What are the chances of Emily affecting the Houston area at this point? I've never really been in a hurricane before and just wondered if it's a slim-to-none chance, a reasonable possibility, or more than a possibility.

Miz

[STARWISE]

I wonder if we'll ever know just how much loss there was in Cuba. You heard anything? Here's an oil platform in the Gulf after the D-Guy.

This photo provided by the U.S. Coast Guard shows a ship passing in front of BP's listing semi-submersible oil platform, Thunder Horse, Tuesday, July 12, 2005, in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico, about 150 miles southeast of New Orleans. The platform was found listing after Hurricane Dennis, and BP spokesman Ronnie Chappell says a cause has not been determined.

[nwctwx]

Like I said last night, this is definately a S. TX storm, if it affects the U.S. at all. I was thinking HOU south, but if things turn out as modeled... HOU would be too far north.

Then again, Dennis was originally thought to keep trucking WNW, but an unexpected (till the last 2 days) trough decided to kick him north into FL. Emily currently has an upper level low sitting to its west, which is helping to induce a WNW movement, this should continue through the next day or two, and it may even swing NW for a while. Thereafter, most guidance suggests the ridge near TX will build... if the guidance is 100% correct (which it never is), this storm goes in south of the TX border after re-entering the Bay of Campeche after it's first landfall.

[Dog Gone]

If you put a gun to my head and forced me to assign a probability, I'd say 15%. The odds are higher for Corpus Christi, and if I lived in Brownsville, I'd be really concerned right now.

But as long as Houston remains even a possibility you should follow events closely. This storm has bad news written all over it.

[eastforker]

Reasonable possibility actualy. Once it gets in the southern GOM anything can happen.

[Miztiki]

Thanks. We just bought our house here in December and it's in a 100 yr flood plane/plain whatever. When it rains hard we get alot of standing water, so I'm most concerned about the potential for heavy rain coming our way. I'd like to prepare if that's going to be a possibility.

I've never been in a flood either. Last year y'all scared me with the displaced snakes and floating balls of fire ants story!

Miz

[nwctwx]

Keep an eye on this map over the coming days:

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_hem_loop-12.gif

As long as you see clockwise rotation centered over the GOM, the storm is going to have a heck of a time getting to TX.

That said, I still think the model tracks will come north a bit in coming days.

[nwctwx]

Hurricane Emily Intermediate Advisory Number 15a

Statement as of 2:00 PM AST on July 14, 2005


...Emily continues to strengthen...nearly category three...


...At 2 PM AST...1800z...the government of Venezuela has
discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning from Cumana eastward. A
Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the northern coast of
Venezuela from Cumana westward to punto fijo...including Isla
Margarita and the offshore islands north of the coast and west of
Cumana.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bonaire...Curacao...and
Aruba.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for the southern coast of
Hispaniola from Punta Salinas in the Dominican Republic to
Port-au-Prince Haiti.


Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean should
monitor the progress of Emily.


For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.


At 2 PM AST...1800z...the center of Hurricane Emily was located
near latitude 12.9 north... longitude 65.0 west or about 490
miles... 795 km... southeast of Santo Domingo in the Dominican
Republic.


Emily is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph ...30 km/hr...
and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.


Reports from an Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased and are now
near 110 mph...175 km/hr...with higher gusts. Emily is a strong
category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Additional
strengthening is expected...and Emily could become a category three
hurricane later today.


Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles... 55 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 105 miles...165 km.


Estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb...28.70 inches.


Emily is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6
inches across portions of the Windward Islands...northern
Venezuela...and the Netherlands Antilles...with possible isolated
amounts of 12 inches over mountainous terrain. These rains could
produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Rainfall over
the Windward Islands is decreasing.


Repeating the 2 PM AST position...12.9 N... 65.0 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 18 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...110 mph. Minimum central pressure... 972 mb.


The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 PM AST.


Forecaster Franklin

[Miztiki]

Is there a map like that that loops (moves)?

[nwctwx]

That is a loop.

You mean, one that follows the storm? Or a close up?

[Miztiki]

You're right, it moves. I had to shut off Zone Alarm to see that. Thanks!

[RGVTx]

Having the wood cut and ready...we're ahead of the game.
I hope South Texan gets to HD soon for wood before prices go up and supplies dwindle.

[Flyer]

Scratch one off the list. I have a new Independent Contractor status with Timeline Deliveries. I am very impressed with this company.

Now I just need to get the brother out of the hospital. He is doing great, they just want to keep him a few more days to do more tests and make sure he is good to go.

Thanks for caring.

[Ditter]

You need to contact the electric co about getting balanced billing. If you have been there a year they will average your bills and you pay the same amount every month.

[Miztiki]

Speaking of flooding, Houston is experiencing some significant flash flooding as we speak. Pearland, where I live, is getting really heavy rain now too, and my yard already has lots of standing water.

Nope, don't need any hurricane next week.