[Miztiki]

What are the chances of Emily affecting the Houston area at this point? I've never really been in a hurricane before and just wondered if it's a slim-to-none chance, a reasonable possibility, or more than a possibility.

Miz

[nwctwx]

Like I said last night, this is definately a S. TX storm, if it affects the U.S. at all. I was thinking HOU south, but if things turn out as modeled... HOU would be too far north.

Then again, Dennis was originally thought to keep trucking WNW, but an unexpected (till the last 2 days) trough decided to kick him north into FL. Emily currently has an upper level low sitting to its west, which is helping to induce a WNW movement, this should continue through the next day or two, and it may even swing NW for a while. Thereafter, most guidance suggests the ridge near TX will build... if the guidance is 100% correct (which it never is), this storm goes in south of the TX border after re-entering the Bay of Campeche after it's first landfall.

[Dog Gone]

If you put a gun to my head and forced me to assign a probability, I'd say 15%. The odds are higher for Corpus Christi, and if I lived in Brownsville, I'd be really concerned right now.

But as long as Houston remains even a possibility you should follow events closely. This storm has bad news written all over it.

[eastforker]

Reasonable possibility actualy. Once it gets in the southern GOM anything can happen.