Posted on 07/13/2005 4:08:44 AM PDT by Gengis Khan
SINGAPORE (Reuters) -- The World Bank has released rankings for gross domestic product for 2004, showing India has joined the league of the world's biggest 10 economies. The first seven places are unchanged from 2003 but Spain has overtaken Canada to become the world's eighth-biggest economy. The table below gives the rankings for the top 20 economies in the world. The Web site for the GDP figures and other World Bank tables is: http://www.worldbank.org/data/quickreference/quickref.html 2004 World Economic Ranking in US$ billion (2003 ranking in brackets) 1. United States (1) 11,668 2. Japan (2) 4,623 3. Germany (3) 2,714 4. United Kingdom (4) 2,141 5. France (5) 2,003 6. Italy (6) 1,672 7. China (7) 1,649 8. Spain (9) 991 9. Canada (8) 980 10. India (12) 692 11. South Korea (11) 680 12. Mexico (10) 676 13. Australia (13) 631 14. Brazil (15) 605 15. Russia (16) 582 16. Netherlands (14) 577 17. Switzerland (17) 359 18. Belgium (18) 350 19. Sweden (19) 346 20. Turkey (21) 302 NOTE: Taiwan is not included in the World Bank statistics. Taiwan's statistics agency says current price GDP in 2004 was T$10.206 trillion. Using an end-2004 exchange rate of $1=31.9 Taiwan dollars, the island's GDP would be equal to about $320 billion, which would make it the world's 20th biggest economy ahead of Turkey.
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1. United States (1) 11,668
2. Japan (2) 4,623
3. Germany (3) 2,714
4. United Kingdom (4) 2,141
5. France (5) 2,003
6. Italy (6) 1,672
7. China (7) 1,649
8. Spain (9) 991
9. Canada (8) 980
10. India (12) 692
11. South Korea (11) 680
12. Mexico (10) 676
13. Australia (13) 631
14. Brazil (15) 605
15. Russia (16) 582
16. Netherlands (14) 577
17. Switzerland (17) 359
18. Belgium (18) 350
19. Sweden (19) 346
20. Turkey (21) 302
The key for the above list is:
Current rank / Country / Former rank / GDP 2004
Go India!
IMHO, its going to be America in the first half of the 21st century and then India in the second half that's gonna keep this century anglospehere-dominated. Of course, the US would still be numero uno but coupled with India, the duo would be unchallengeble.
Let India be the Britain of the 21st century. But India will have to prove herself first on the world stage.
I read a story that said India will overtake China economically by 2010.
What's your opinion on that?
To me it makes sense that a country where citizens enjoy private property and free enterprise will always economically outperform socialist/communist countries.
Do the citizens of India enjoy liberal property rights?
If Canada and Spain have switched rankings, why is Canada still in the G8 and not replaced by Spain?
Good point, but isn't the ranking based on national GDP? Otherwise, small, developed nations should be in the list. Luxembourg, Kuwait, Monaco, etc. In my opinion, it will beocme necessary for Canada to leave the G8 as other countries groew their economies at a faster rate and Canada slides further into irrelevance.
The G8 consists of whoever we want it to consist of. Don't forget that Russia is also a G8 country (or it was anyway). Look how far down the list Russia is.
It sure looks like NAFTA is helping Mexico out. Maybe if they kept some of their people at home they could grow their economy.
"I read a story that said India will overtake China economically by 2010.
What's your opinion on that?"
For that to happen...(if at all) there is still a long way to go. 2010 would be way to early to even catch up with China. And at this moment China is racing ahead to say the least.
One must remember that China started economic liberalisation 10 years ahead of India and so they have a good 10 years head start. The Sino-US bilateral trade at present stands at around a whooping $200-280 Billion dollars. There current FDIs stands at around $250 Billion dollars.And China enjoys a huge trade surplus over most countries of the world. It is projected that by 2010-2015 China would be ranked second in the world next only to the US. China will by then enjoy tremendous economic, political and military clout. Needless to say that it will be making full use of its political and military clout to safeguard its economic and strategic interest which would extend far beyond its natural boundaries. This would bring China into direct conflict with other major powers like Japan, US and India. And the question of energy security would be much more acute by 2015 when 2 billion population from a rising India and China would demand more energy.
India has some natural advantages vis-à-vis China. India is a stable democracy and has among the worlds highest English speakers. Also India has a leading IT industry that is way ahead of anything China has got. India also produces the worlds highest number of scientiest, engineers, doctors and computer programmers (thanks to a sound British education system). India has free press and a sound judicial system based on western model. India has much of the edifices of a modern day democracy well preserved and functioning quite unlike China where most of these are non-existant. Although the FDI to India is about 1/6th of that of China, India has managed its finances much better that China to fund key projects on infrastructure development, education, health and defence. And add to that India has a much better banking system when compared to China (it is said that the Chinese banking system is a house of cards). Based on some of these indicators it can be speculated that India has a good chance to beat Chinese economy by around 2015 to 2020......provided we maintain an annual growth rate of around 8-10%.
Now here is the catch, to achieve an annual growth rate of more than 8-10% India needs to carry out much more ruthless liberalisation and opening up of key sectors. Our current current growth rate is hovering around 7%. For a country with the potential that India has, a double digit growth rate is in no way unrealistic. Whats holding us back is our democracy. In a diverse chaotic democracy such as ours it is difficult to come to a consensus on any issue. Moreover the numerous left parties (who hold not many seats but have a lot of influence) that dot the Indian polity have a tendency to play spoilers. And most importantly the shackles of burocratic "red tape" have held India back for the last half a century. At current growth rate India can come a close second to China but, if India can manage to overcomes these barriers then there is no holding India back. The next century might well be the Indian century.
India (and China) will be the success stories of this centuries. You might remember that only a few decades back India's ranking was closer to Ethiopia then Canada (as it is today).
Guess which country topped the 2004 list of countries' GDP growth?
Iraq with a GDP growth of 52.3%.
You may want to read The Economist for an excellent analysis of China versus India. The article is called "The Tiger in front". The analysis gave the advantage to China.
www.economist.com
I thought that China would have moved up at least one place since last year, but I guess not. I think it's better that India continue a steady measured pace of growth. 7% is good. China, IMHO, is growing too fast. They are in danger of becoming overheated.
"Do the citizens of India enjoy liberal property rights?"
I am not sure I understand your question on what you would mean by "liberal property rights". In India one can own(or buy) as much property as one possibly can.
China is walking a very dangerous line. If they follow the old models, they're going to explode into either civil war or war.
If the Communist leadership decides to follow a new model, which is what I think they're going to do - they'll prolong the inevitable, but they're going to have to choose between more democratic reforms or war in the end.
My bets on them choosing war.
in another decade, Canada would be overtaken by India and maybe even by South Korea, so they wouldn't even be in the top 10
Ping!
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