Posted on 07/10/2005 8:02:57 PM PDT by varina davis
BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SUN JUL 10 2005
...FIFTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 42.9 WEST OR ABOUT 1280 MILES...2055 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...10.8 N... 42.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST.
FORECASTER STEWART
Slept straight through until 6:00 this morning. Need to clean up the debris in the pool. Only then will I consider looking at data for this new storm.
QUICK! Where'd Jim Cantore go? Keep your eye on him! Round and round he goes... where he stops? Hurricane blows!
This is quite a traumatic event...what do you take with you when you think you house will be destroyed within the next 24 hours. I've also developed a new disorder, HAD (Hurricane Anxiety Disorder), lol. I've gotta get to cleaning up now, later.
Whoa...
When was that sat. posted?
TD #5/Emily looks pretty southern. Looking bad for the Gulf. She'd have to take a pretty hard right to become a central/north Atlantic storm, but you never know!
It's time stamped (11 JUL 05 00 00 UTC, ie 11pm EDT). EURO forecasted the wave behind TD5 will to develop into sixth named storm, Franklin.
That reminds me what the weather guy said on Fox and Friends this morning. He said with all seriousness that Emily will go either to the left or right of Florida. No!Really? :o)
That brings up the matter of "permanent" preparations. Our island was devastated by a number of strong hurricanes around the time they were named after Saints, during the first half of the 20th century. Back then most homes were made out of wood.
From the 50's onward developers, pioneered by Levitt Homes, started building homes made out of poured concrete, reinforced cinder blocks and with concrete slabs as roofs. Now most homes, even humble ones in the mountains, are made of concrete.
I still don't understand why most homes and buildings in the mainland, particularly in those areas vulnerable to hurricanes and tornadoes, are made of light materials. Maybe concrete is not as energy efficient for colder climates. Maybe the ground in Florida is not strong enough to hold heavy structures. But our experience has demonstrated that concrete works, even if some homes look like bunkers.
That's why I am an advocate of building at least one poured-concrete safe rooms in mainland homes.
In my case, my "permanent" preparations include:
* My condo is, of course, built of reinforced concrete
* Accordion storm shutters. Pricey but convenient.
* A 1600W generator that can run a refrigerator and a few lights and fans. I run it once a month, and keep it full of gas during the season. It's a little Yamaha job that's quiet enough to run out on the balcony and runs for 11 hours.
* Potable water - All new buildings here must be built to include a potable water cistern. Additionally, I collect water in five-gallon cans when the first watch is issued and store in a closet for the duration of the season.
* My cars and motorcycle are parked in an enclosed concrete garage.
* Food - If I cannot get my hands on a case of MRE's (you can buy these things in places like USCavalry.com), I buy a stock of non-perishables at the beginning of the season which I donate to a food bank after the season is over.
Most people here (except many newcomers) realize that storms are very much part of our life and we need to learn to live with them. After all, we cannot evacuate to another state as you mainlanders can.
HAD....I like it!
Or how about PHAD (Pre/Post Hurricane Anxiety Disorder)?
Can we get disability comp with that?
That's impossible. My vacation there is still 3 1/2 weeks away.
(we were there for Alex last year)
Thanks so much for soldiering on and "mothering" the storm threads, which were such a vital information and support command post. Rest up, take yer vitamins and stock in the coffee and ice cream ;).
We have a real possibility for a new fad lexicon.
~snicker~
Although, it isn't really funny!
No, but we might as well laugh about it while we can.
hehehehe...Hi don-o!
Ninety five tropical storms on the wall
Ninety fice tropical storms...
Take one down
Blow us around...
...Depression continues westward in the central tropical Atlantic...
At 11 am AST...1500z...the center of Tropical Depression Five was relocated near latitude 10.3 north... longitude 44.7 west or about 1120 miles...1800 km... east of the Windward Islands.
The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph ...19 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher gusts. The depression could become a tropical storm later today or on Tuesday.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb...29.77 inches.
Repeating the 11 am AST position...10.3 N... 44.7 W. Movement toward...west near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1008 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 5 PM AST.
Forecaster Franklin
I resemble that disorder .. LOL.
visible imagery reveals that the depression is not well organized... with a low-level circulation located along the eastern edge of the deep convection...about 80 nm to the east of the mid-level turning. A Quikscat pass at 09z suggested that this small low-level circulation may merely be a swirl embedded within an ill-defined broader low. Improved banding features to the southwest over the past few hours also suggest that it is the broader low that may ultimately prevail. Rather than jerk the track back to the east to follow the swirl...I prefer to follow the broader system at this time. The poor organization of the system...and Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB of t2.0...are good reasons not to upgrade the depression to a tropical storm.
While there is presently some easterly shear with this system...as well as marginal thermodynamics...the environment is expected to become more favorable for development in both regards over the next few days. Given this...slow but steady strengthening is anticipated over the next 72 hours...and the official forecast is in good agreement with SHIPS and GFDL guidance. The GFDL...which develops the depression only slowly at first...continues to make the cyclone a significant hurricane in the Caribbean.
The initial motion estimate continues to be 270/10. Some increase in forward speed is anticipated as the cyclone moves away from the influence of broad cyclonic flow over the eastern Atlantic and becomes more embedded in a deep easterly steering current. The official forecast...which is a little south of the previous forecast...is a blend of the GFDL and NOGAPS models. It is perhaps of interest to note that the NOGAPS...which had only a so-so year last year...is currently the best performing Atlantic track model so far in 2005...and the FSU superensemble...which won hands down last year...is struggling a bit.
Forecaster Franklin
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 11/1500z 10.3n 44.7w 30 kt 12hr VT 12/0000z 10.4n 46.3w 35 kt 24hr VT 12/1200z 10.8n 48.9w 40 kt 36hr VT 13/0000z 11.5n 52.0w 45 kt 48hr VT 13/1200z 12.2n 55.2w 50 kt 72hr VT 14/1200z 14.0n 61.0w 60 kt 96hr VT 15/1200z 16.5n 67.0w 70 kt 120hr VT 16/1200z 19.0n 73.0w 70 kt
I stayed in a home like that for awhile in Leisure City, FL after Andrew decimated my place. There's a whole development of about 4 streets that were built there in the 50's and 60's for snowbirds. They ARE bunkers .. not a thing was structurally touched on those places, 5 mins. from where Andrew's bomb went off (my location). They are awesome.
The weather guy on Fox (is that Accuweather?) last night said, "See you in North Carolina in ten days.)
How accurate were they this time?
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