Posted on 07/10/2005 8:02:57 PM PDT by varina davis
BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SUN JUL 10 2005
...FIFTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 42.9 WEST OR ABOUT 1280 MILES...2055 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...10.8 N... 42.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST.
FORECASTER STEWART
That is amazing. Almost hitting the same places as Dennis except moving in a westerly direction.
wow.....looks like central/N Texas track is closest.
Please add me to your weather ping list. Thanks
Emily is showing improved banding this morning...and a microwave pass at 0920z does much to improve confidence in a well-defined center location. The initial intensity is increased to 45 kt based on a t3.0 Dvorak classification from SAB. Outflow is strong both to the north and south of the center...and upper-level winds are expected to be very favorable for continued development over the next few days. Now that the circulation is consolidating...a more rapid strengthening trend is likely...with the thermodynamic environment being the only obvious inhibiting factor. Both the SHIPS and GFDL models are forecasting Emily to be a major hurricane in three days...and the official forecast is close to this guidance.
The initial motion estimate is 270/18...considerably faster than before. Model guidance...which has had something of a right bias so far with this system...has trended southward over the past 12 hours. The deep trough currently visible in water vapor imagery over the western Atlantic is expected to lift out and be replaced by high pressure to the north of the tropical cyclone. This should keep Emily on a basic west-northwest track for most or all of the forecast period. After adjustments for the initial location of the center...model guidance is still in excellent agreement...even more so than yesterday. The official forecast has been shifted about 100 nmi south of the previous advisory...and is very close to the dynamical model consensus.
Forecaster Franklin
I see the 11am track throws most of my ideas from last night out the window. ;-)
If this takes a similar track to dennis through the islands, I will be simply amazed at what is going on this season.
This one interests me, could be a galveston storm.
Yes, please add me to the list!!!!
Done!
Yes, I'm on Howlin's list, but would like to be added to yours. FR is reeeealy slow today....
Looks like we have all FReepers checked in post-Dennis.
HighImpact and Eagle Eye posted this morning, Blueberry12
last night. Whew!
The Thunder Horse rig and production facility was pretty far west of Dennis and got nothing more than tropical force winds.
Suspicion is that the accident may have caused a malfunction of the computers which control the ballast in the pontoons, because no hole has been detected.
This thing isn't bent. One or more of the pontoons is flooded, but this damage isn't as bad as it looks. It would be bad if a hurricane hit it before it's uprighted, but this may be repaired in a matter of days.
It's damage from Dennis only because something went wrong in the evacuation procedures.
Welcome back. No, you're not a wuss. I was within 30 minutes of leaving myself. I was already asking questions about which way I should go. We got lucky again.
...Emily continues rapidly westward...
a Hurricane Watch remains in effect for Barbados...Grenada...The Grenadines...St. Vincent...and St. Lucia. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Warning will likely be required for all or part of the watch area later this afternoon.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the island of Tobago. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within 36 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the eastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of Emily.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 2 PM AST...1800z...the center of Tropical Storm Emily was located near latitude 11.1 north... longitude 51.9 west or about 530 miles... 850 km... east-southeast of Barbados.
Emily is moving toward the west near 20 mph ...32 km/hr. A turn to the west-northwest is expected during the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of Emily will be reaching the Windward Islands late Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph... 85 km/hr...with higher gusts. Emily has the potential to become a hurricane before reaching the Windward Islands.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 50 miles ... 85 km from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb...29.53 inches.
Repeating the 2 PM AST position...11.1 N... 51.9 W. Movement toward...west near 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 50 mph. Minimum central pressure...1000 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 5 PM AST.
Forecaster Franklin
NO!
Maybe I'll just go spend the summer with my sister in Indianopolis.
gulp! When does it make the big dog leg to the north?
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