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Tropical Storm Emily
NOAA ^ | July 10, 2005 | National Hurricane Center

Posted on 07/10/2005 8:02:57 PM PDT by varina davis

BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SUN JUL 10 2005

...FIFTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 42.9 WEST OR ABOUT 1280 MILES...2055 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...10.8 N... 42.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: atlantic; emily; fifth; hurricane; tropical; weather
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To: neutrality

That is amazing. Almost hitting the same places as Dennis except moving in a westerly direction.


281 posted on 07/12/2005 7:57:19 AM PDT by rwfromkansas (http://www.xanga.com/home.aspx?user=rwfromkansas)
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To: dawn53

wow.....looks like central/N Texas track is closest.


282 posted on 07/12/2005 8:05:43 AM PDT by rwfromkansas (http://www.xanga.com/home.aspx?user=rwfromkansas)
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To: nwctwx

Please add me to your weather ping list. Thanks


283 posted on 07/12/2005 8:07:14 AM PDT by WatchOutForSnakes
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To: varina davis
Eye of the storm is a pretty cool utility. It's too expensive for what it does, but the trial version is neat too. Notice Emily in the first picture

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.usFree Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.usFree Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

284 posted on 07/12/2005 8:40:15 AM PDT by neutrality
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To: nwctwx; Dog Gone; blam
Tropical Storm Emily Discussion Number 7

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on July 12, 2005

 
Emily is showing improved banding this morning...and a microwave
pass at 0920z does much to improve confidence in a well-defined
center location.  The initial intensity is increased to 45 kt based
on a t3.0 Dvorak classification from SAB.  Outflow is strong both
to the north and south of the center...and upper-level winds are
expected to be very favorable for continued development over the
next few days.  Now that the circulation is consolidating...a more
rapid strengthening trend is likely...with the thermodynamic
environment being the only obvious inhibiting factor.  Both the
SHIPS and GFDL models are forecasting Emily to be a major hurricane
in three days...and the official forecast is close to this
guidance.

 
The initial motion estimate is 270/18...considerably faster than
before.  Model guidance...which has had something of a right bias
so far with this system...has trended southward over the past 12
hours.  The deep trough currently visible in water vapor imagery
over the western Atlantic is expected to lift out and be replaced
by high pressure to the north of the tropical cyclone.  This should
keep Emily on a basic west-northwest track for most or all of the
forecast period.  After adjustments for the initial location of the
center...model guidance is still in excellent agreement...even more
so than yesterday.  The official forecast has been shifted about
100 nmi south of the previous advisory...and is very close to the
dynamical model consensus. 

 
Forecaster Franklin

285 posted on 07/12/2005 8:42:37 AM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: varina davis
Eye of the storm is a pretty cool utility. It's too expensive for what it does, but the trial version is neat too. Notice Emily in the first picture

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.usFree Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.usFree Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

286 posted on 07/12/2005 8:46:11 AM PDT by neutrality
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To: NautiNurse

I see the 11am track throws most of my ideas from last night out the window. ;-)

If this takes a similar track to dennis through the islands, I will be simply amazed at what is going on this season.


287 posted on 07/12/2005 8:56:48 AM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: All; NautiNurse; Timeout; MplsSteve; Gabz; Howlin; Letitring; WatchOutForSnakes; MikeinIraq
Dennis beats up Oil rig


288 posted on 07/12/2005 9:13:57 AM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: nwctwx

This one interests me, could be a galveston storm.


289 posted on 07/12/2005 9:15:28 AM PDT by jpsb (I already know I am a terrible speller)
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To: Howlin

Yes, please add me to the list!!!!


290 posted on 07/12/2005 9:38:21 AM PDT by nuclady
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To: nwctwx
That's an awesome pic!
291 posted on 07/12/2005 9:47:31 AM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: nuclady; Gabz; NautiNurse

Done!


292 posted on 07/12/2005 9:51:47 AM PDT by Howlin
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To: nwctwx

Yes, I'm on Howlin's list, but would like to be added to yours. FR is reeeealy slow today....


293 posted on 07/12/2005 9:58:08 AM PDT by nuclady
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To: Howlin; nwctwx; All

Looks like we have all FReepers checked in post-Dennis.
HighImpact and Eagle Eye posted this morning, Blueberry12
last night. Whew!


294 posted on 07/12/2005 10:09:54 AM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: nwctwx
It's not really clear that this was damage from Dennis. During evacuation preparation before Dennis hit, a 20-ton winch was dropped hitting one of the pontoons.

The Thunder Horse rig and production facility was pretty far west of Dennis and got nothing more than tropical force winds.

Suspicion is that the accident may have caused a malfunction of the computers which control the ballast in the pontoons, because no hole has been detected.

This thing isn't bent. One or more of the pontoons is flooded, but this damage isn't as bad as it looks. It would be bad if a hurricane hit it before it's uprighted, but this may be repaired in a matter of days.

It's damage from Dennis only because something went wrong in the evacuation procedures.

295 posted on 07/12/2005 10:13:49 AM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: Timeout

Welcome back. No, you're not a wuss. I was within 30 minutes of leaving myself. I was already asking questions about which way I should go. We got lucky again.


296 posted on 07/12/2005 10:41:33 AM PDT by blam
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To: Dog Gone; nwctwx; Howlin; mhking
Good night--this storm track is deja vu all over again

Tropical Storm Emily Intermediate Advisory Number 7a

Statement as of 2:00 PM AST on July 12, 2005

 
...Emily continues rapidly westward...

 
a Hurricane Watch remains in effect for Barbados...Grenada...The
Grenadines...St. Vincent...and St. Lucia.  A Hurricane Watch means
that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area within
36 hours.  A Hurricane Warning will likely be required for all or
part of the watch area later this afternoon.

 
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the island of Tobago. 
A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area within 36 hours.

 
Interests elsewhere in the eastern Caribbean should monitor the
progress of Emily.

 

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

 
At 2 PM AST...1800z...the center of Tropical Storm Emily was
located near latitude 11.1 north... longitude 51.9 west or about
530 miles... 850 km... east-southeast of Barbados.

 
Emily is moving toward the west near 20 mph ...32 km/hr. A turn to
the west-northwest is expected during the next 24 hours.  On the
forecast track...the center of Emily will be reaching the Windward
Islands late Wednesday.

 
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph... 85 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Emily has the potential to become a hurricane before
reaching the Windward Islands.  

 
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to  50 miles
... 85 km from the center.

 
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb...29.53 inches.

 
Repeating the 2 PM AST position...11.1 N... 51.9 W.  Movement
toward...west near 20 mph.  Maximum sustained
winds... 50 mph.  Minimum central pressure...1000 mb.

 
The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 PM AST.

 
Forecaster Franklin

297 posted on 07/12/2005 10:44:55 AM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: NautiNurse
"Both the SHIPS and GFDL models are forecasting Emily to be a major hurricane in three days"

NO!

Maybe I'll just go spend the summer with my sister in Indianopolis.

298 posted on 07/12/2005 10:45:26 AM PDT by blam
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To: blam
Does this look familiar?


299 posted on 07/12/2005 10:49:47 AM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: neutrality

gulp! When does it make the big dog leg to the north?


300 posted on 07/12/2005 10:50:07 AM PDT by johnb838 (Dominus Vobiscum.... Et com spiritu tuo... Oremus.)
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