Posted on 07/09/2005 4:29:22 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Dennis resources--the links and graphics are self-updating for handy reference:
NHC Hurricane Public Advisory Updates Currently published every two hours 1A, 3A, 5A, 7A, 9A, 11A, 1P...etc. ET. It may drop back to every three hours 11A, 2P, etc.
NHC Hurricane Discussion Updates Published every 6 hours 5A, 11A, 5P, 11P ET
Gulf of Mexico Visible Loop (Only works during daylight hours)
NorthWest FL Extended Radar Loop
SE US Radar still image
What is a dvorak image?
Have we ever seen a Hurricane that has RE-intensified THIS quickly after a significant landfall?
the only one I can truly think of may be Andrew, but the reintensification wasn't nearly so quick.....
BREAKING -- Pressure just dropped another 5 MB!! That's 16 MBs in 3 hours! Puts it at 942.
The following is a forecast by a gentleman at Eastern US Weather Forums. He has been almost dead on with all his forecasts so far. Read and weep
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It appears that all of the synoptic aspects are in place to make a final call on the upcoming Hurricane Dennis strike on the Gulf Coast. After making refinements on pressure forecasts (Dennis was much deeper after exiting Cuba than I had thought), it appears to me that Dennis will strike southern Mississippi on Sunday evening (say 8pm CT) as a strong Category 4 storm, with an outside shot at making Category 5 before landfall.
First of all, I must point out that recent satellite images show a very symmetric appearance to the hurricane, and the storm is embedded in a deep fetch of mTw air (if I hear one more "dry air" will kill this thing....argghh!). Upper level disturbances to the left and right of Dennis are far weaker than its powerful circulation and warm advection streak (that is responsible for all of the thunderstorms on its right flanks), so the intensity of Dennis will not be impacted. This situation occurred in 1989 with Hugo, where prognosticators felt that four mesoscale impulses near the storm would somehow weaken it. Instead, the gyre basically sucked in the the energy and grew stronger, right up until landfall in Charleston. But the 500MB cold pool/vorticity maximum in coastal TX, which is retrogressing into the western Gulf of Mexico, will act as a leftward "pull" in steering Dennis.
At this point, I will stick with my call of a landfall in the vicinity of Gulfport MS on Sunday evening. The heat ridge that stretches from the Great Lakes into E GA/SC/NC favors a continued NW trajectory with some wobbles to the west as Dennis interacts with the aforementioned weakness aloft. It is highly likely that minimal hurricane force winds will impact New Orleans, with a northerly flow that will act as a "Ponchartrain Drain", causing flooding in the Big Easy. But the biggest effects will be felt along the Interstate 10 corridor from Gulfport MS to Pensacola FL, with the cities of Biloxi and Pascagoula in MS suffering tremendous damage through surge, flooding rains, tornadoes and of course gradient-inspired winds. Speeds of 150 mph and a surge of at least 10 feet are to be expected. The western edge of the rain shield may advance to just west of New Orleans, but C, E MS....AL....extreme W GA....and the W FL Panhandle may see as much as 15 inches of rain. Since the storm will in effect be tunneling into a anticyclone, the circulation will slow and impact the Tennessee Valley with tremendous rains and severe thunderstorms. Another complication will be later next week, when Dennis remnants merge with a shortwave coming through the Great Lakes and Ontario. The area from the Ohio River into SW QC and NY....PA....OH may see torrential downpours and tornado threats.
Here is my general storm outline for Hurricane Dennis. If you opt to chase this storm, keep inmind that road options are very far outside of Interstates 55 and 10 in this vicinity; state, local, and US highways are either very heavily forested or near bodies of water.
Best Regards,
Larry Cosgrove
now THAT is an angry looking storm....
pressure down to 942 mb weather channel just said
We're in Pinellas County (southern tip of Pinellas.) Got a couple of good soakings this AM, but since about 2 o'clock, only wind, no real rain to speak of. Kind of weird.
I'm in southern KY, an hour north of Nashville, but am from central -- know Spencer Co and Louisville well. We are severely dry, but looks like we'll be having flash flooding along about Tuesday, courtesy of Dennis.
probably, but what happens then? OK, time to stop the boat, here's the shore ... but look behind us!!! kepp going, hurry ... er, game over, glub glub glub
Yeah. That area of drier air is coming up on us now. Its about 200 miles deep, and the Northern edge rain we just had extends all the way into Atlanta moving Northwestward. I'll assume y'all down there will start to get the heavier stuff before we do. Good lick, FRiend!
Could it be the outflow in this particular hurricane? Just a guess. ;o)
Dennis just cut a hard north which could send him straight back to FL.
I think 942 puts it on the borderline for being a CAT 4....but its all up to the winds....
Are you serious?
NN, where are you?
We are in Bradenton, just south of downtown. By my calculations it is going to get very blustery by 1 or 2 am.
ExSafecracker
Go look at the IR.
942MB, 100KT flight-level winds in the SW Quad (weakest part of the storm), and a 122KT flight-level wind was just recently reported closer to the NE. Looks like we have a 110KT storm at the very lowest... -Rob
Dennis was at 938 when it hit Cuba, and it was right in the cusp of becoming a CAT 5.
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