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China may attack Taiwan in two years: Pentagon - (Bill Gertz has the information)
INSIGHT MAGAZINE.COM ^ | JUNE 26, 2005 | BILL GERTZ

Posted on 06/28/2005 2:07:41 PM PDT by CHARLITE

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1 posted on 06/28/2005 2:07:51 PM PDT by CHARLITE
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Comment #2 Removed by Moderator

To: CHARLITE

Pre-emptive strike, anyone??


3 posted on 06/28/2005 2:10:53 PM PDT by RockinRight (Conservatism is common sense, liberalism is just senseless.)
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To: CHARLITE

They are confusing capability with intent.

It's obvious that China wants a superpower-level military to go along with what is rapidly becoming a superpower-level economy. It'd be surprising if they were not using all these hundreds of billions of dollars to build up their military.

That doesn't mean they are going to risk all their economic progress by going to war. China right now is just experiencing the great benefits of peaceful capatalism. Sure, it's possible they will decide for war, but they strike me as a pretty rational lot, for all their lack of democracy. This isn't some whacko middle eastern regime like Iran or a nutcase government like North Korea.


4 posted on 06/28/2005 2:12:56 PM PDT by Altair333 (Stop illegal immigration: George Allen in 2008)
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To: CHARLITE

At times I wonder if Gertz's unnamed Pentagon sources are the same janitors that Farah uses.


5 posted on 06/28/2005 2:14:40 PM PDT by Strategerist
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To: RockinRight

"Pre-emptive strike, anyone??"

Yeah, we could use that spare platoon we have sitting around in Fort Benning- just about everyone else is either in Iraq or being rested and refitted after deployment in Iraq.

I wouldn't even defend Taiwan- why is it our job to do so when we recognize Taiwan as part of China? We defended South Korea and look what we got for our trouble- they hate our guts now.

We're being invaded by Mexico from the south. Right now. In our own borders. In 50 years this country will be dominated by Mexicans. I really wish we'd keep our eye on the ball here.


6 posted on 06/28/2005 2:15:49 PM PDT by Altair333 (Stop illegal immigration: George Allen in 2008)
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To: CHARLITE
China is, as one senior Indian Navy officer put it, "buying submarines and warships like groceries".
7 posted on 06/28/2005 2:16:10 PM PDT by pabianice
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To: CHARLITE

China will do nothing until after the 2008 Olympics.


8 posted on 06/28/2005 2:16:27 PM PDT by So Cal Rocket (Proud Member: Internet Pajama Wearers for Truth)
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To: Altair333

That's true.

Screw China. Let's take care of the Mexicans first.


9 posted on 06/28/2005 2:16:56 PM PDT by RockinRight (Conservatism is common sense, liberalism is just senseless.)
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To: CHARLITE
Any of you ever read that Clancy book, The Bear and the Dragon?

If China's Navy has increased it's combat power by 1000%, then that means it would last a day against the United States Navy, as opposed to an hour. And I suspect Air Force and Navy fighter pilots could quickly inflict helacious damage to their air forces as well.
10 posted on 06/28/2005 2:20:16 PM PDT by JamesP81
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To: pabianice

If China is depending on the Russian coldwar era warships and submarines to initiate a war she better pay her sailors extreme danger pay just for serving on the ships. Most of those ships and subs are deathtraps(suicide machines)for the men who serve on them.

I don't think the U.S. navy has much to worry about.


11 posted on 06/28/2005 2:21:16 PM PDT by puppypusher
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To: puppypusher
I don't think the U.S. navy has much to worry about.

No, it doesn't. One carrier battlegroup could destroy their entire fleet in one day's worth of fighting. Nuclear powered fast attack submarines would have their energy shipments cutoff completely. If they screw with Taiwan, or anyone else, we can and will screw their economy so hard they'll be screaming for their mamas after a week. And this is without using any ground troops at all.
12 posted on 06/28/2005 2:23:35 PM PDT by JamesP81
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To: CHARLITE

The U.S. should not got to war with China to defend Taiwan. It is not our job to defend everyone who is threatened.


13 posted on 06/28/2005 2:24:53 PM PDT by mlo
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To: Altair333

Good assessment IMO. Gertz tends to be the "balance" to Seymour Hersh of the Left.


14 posted on 06/28/2005 2:25:01 PM PDT by Vn_survivor_67-68
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To: CHARLITE

Beijing is hosting the Olympics then. They will wait until after that if they invade at all. I don't think they will.


15 posted on 06/28/2005 2:26:47 PM PDT by conserv13
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To: mlo

In Taiwan's case we have a treaty with them that we will protect them if they are attacked.


16 posted on 06/28/2005 2:27:45 PM PDT by conserv13
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Comment #17 Removed by Moderator

To: CHARLITE

The obvious choice is to equip Taiwan with nukes. And a lot of 'em. An amphibious assualt won't mean squat as Beijing is vaporized.


18 posted on 06/28/2005 2:30:13 PM PDT by Desecrated (A nickel of every tax dollar should go toward the defense of America)
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To: Altair333
I wouldn't even defend Taiwan- why is it our job to do so

You're right, we should make a habit of stabbing our allies in the back and disregarding our treaty obligations. Good plan!

19 posted on 06/28/2005 2:30:59 PM PDT by JohnnyZ ("I believe abortion should be safe and legal in this country." -- Mitt Romney)
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To: CHARLITE

2007 or so?

That sounds about right.

Just before a US presidential election and they'd do anything to make the Republicans look bad so that they can get their friends and compatriots the Democrats back in the White House. I'm sure they're already working out deals with Hillary.


20 posted on 06/28/2005 2:31:30 PM PDT by Ghost of Philip Marlowe (Liberals are blind. They are the dupes of Leftists who know exactly what they're doing.)
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