China may attack Taiwan in two years: Pentagon - (Bill Gertz has the information)

INSIGHT MAGAZINE.COM ^ | JUNE 26, 2005 | BILL GERTZ

[SampleMan]

The Chinese are extremely nationalistic. They want Taiwan back badly, they want to show that they are a world power. They don't want war with the United States, but that doesn't mean that they won't go to war. They also see a closing window on their opportunity to force Taiwan to unify. Their writing is full of this. Their leaders are heavily invested in this. The trick for the Chinese will to carry out the deed without having a full scale war with us. My guess is that they will plan on being lightning fast, intimidating our regional allies, and forcing capitulation on Taiwan before we can really mobilize. The Chinese might logically assume that once Taiwan has folded, say from 1000 missile strikes, that we won't carry on a war to "liberate" a country that has willfully negotiated its surrender.

[mlo]

In Taiwan's case we have a treaty with them that we will protect them if they are attacked.

I realize that. My whole point was to question having such a treaty with Taiwan.

[doctor noe]

"Beijing is hosting the Olympics then. They will wait until after that if they invade at all. I don't think they will."

There is no way the Chinese would screw-up their shot at hosting the Olympics. There would be a massive boycott. You're right...if they invade at all, they'll wait.

[coconutt2000]

The primary problem is Chinese Domestic Instability.

If at some point capitalism and personal wealth generates a domestic movement for greater Democratic institutions, China may distract its internal detractors by going to war. A state of war will allow internal security forces to round up dissenters, while at the same time directing the energies of the country at an external war.

It is short term thinking, on the part of the Chinese leadership, but since it is a balancing act between progress and maintaining power, it is no surprise that China's near future is unpredictable. It could swing any way, at any time.

I personally believe there will be a war in Asia involving China within 5-10 years, or an internal collapse. I think 2 years is a highly optimistic or pessimistic prediction.

[SirAllen]

Great read. I've been saying this for years, I hope others and this administration start waking up before it's too late.

[RinaseaofDs]

It's what Patton would have wanted.

Actually, what Patton would have counseled was rearming Japan. Taiwan was under Japanese rule from 1845 to I can't remember.

If Taiwan had to pick its masters, I'd wager they'd pick Japan in this case.

Japan will be the first to suffer from Chinese hegemony. Russia will be next, possibly. It depends on how whether they hate the US more than they hate each other.

I've been saying this from the beginning about China: There is no market there for us. None. Any business partnership with the Chinese is actually a business partnership with the PLA.

[Gritty]

"There's a growing consensus that at some point in the mid-to-late '90s, there was a fundamental shift in the sophistication, breadth and re-sorting of Chinese defense planning," said Richard Lawless

Let's stop and review history a bit before everyone forgets and blames this dangerous state of affairs on Bushitler and the GOP...

Who was President at that time the entire effort changed direction and speed? And who was selling missile and satillite technologies to China for campaign contributions? And who purposely opened the nuclear secrets of Los Alamos up to the Chinese and who allowed them to steal our nuclear warhead technologies?

These chickens have been coming home to roost for a long time. Let's not forget who hatched them in the first place! The same crew is planning on coming back for the third and fourth acts (the final ones) in 2008 and 2012.

[ken21]

if this comes to pass, i wonder what the dummies will say and do?

[chilepepper]

since western conventional wisdom is that they will not invade Taiwan just before or during the olympics, i become more and more convinced that is EXACTLY what they would do it. look up the word surprise

you assume the world in the next 2-3 years is like it is today -- i do not. if china has mobilized even more by then and the US has become weakened by economic or energy woes and/or appears militarily overstretched, then what better time? do tell me they *really* give a damn what the EU, the US or Australia would think if they actually invaded during the olympics? how many divisions would France offer Taiwan to defend itself? or Germany? or India? or LULA-ized Brazil? or Venezuela? or Iran? or North Korea? Russia? now how many divisions would New Zealand offer? the Phillipines? Australia? Japan?

ANY attack on Taiwan will result in condemnation of china -- it will be the "invasion of poland" analog from a fascist china, and what is the difference of a few months if that would lull conventional thinking in the west to relax a little bit, and perhaps give them an edge in their strike against Taiwan? it is clear to everyone that even with two more years of preparation, taiwan will *NOT* be a pushover. if china is serious about invading, they will seek *every* advantage they can to improve their odds. doing it during the olympics will hurt not one whit. most countries will look the other way. after all folks, USSR didn't let the upcoming olympics deter their invasion of afghanistan and so what if little _jimmuh boycotted?

the parallels are there...

[dinok]

"Pre-emptive strike"!!!!

Please...!!! They will invade Taiwan and we will do nothing.

They control both ends of the Panama canal. And they have a big business lobby in Washington. They will also wait until after the Olympics are over in '08.

China has our economy in the palm of their hand. We are too weak to fight a world war which is what it would take.

[Fitzcarraldo]

No doubt in advance of the takeover the MSM will air shows on the "corrupt Taiwanese" etc. and most of our populace will fall for it, with the opposition labeled as right-wing extremists.

[Edison]

Why not invade during the Olympics when you have all of those international athletes and tourists acting as human sheilds. Who will retalitate then? Yes, my tinfoil hat is working overtime here but out of curiosity, how many hostages would that be?

[chilepepper]

absolutely! the chinese military can have a lot of command and control facilities right next to olympic venues.

now i am NOT saying china will definitely invade taiwan during the olympics. it may, god willing, never come to pass. what i AM saying is that if they are serious about striking taiwan, the olympics in china will have a slightly encouraging, rather than highly restraining effect, on the chinese commands decision to proceed.

the most dangerous attitude is the lacksidaisical hand waving, "oh, the chinese wouldn't *dare* do that".

yeah, right... famous last words...

[Jackknife]

bump

[CHARLITE]

"That is their failure. They are convinced that the American culture will run for mommy. This is the same thinking that got Japan into WWII."

Bingo. I was just saying this on another thread yesterday. However, if China IS now an expansionist, imperialistic nation, as Japan was from 1920 forward, then we've got a similar situation on our hands as we did circa Dec. 7, 1941. We have a global war against a fanatical fascist enemy, and a potential conflict with an imperialistic (militaristic) Asian power.

Do you see the similarities?

Sometimes I wish that Rodney King's mirabilis dictu could be the standard for global peace. "Can't we all just get along?"

Thanks for your excellent historical comparisons. I believe that you're right, grayforkbeard.

Char :)

[Wiz]

ping

[conserv13]

My whole point was to question having such a treaty with Taiwan.

Think about this:
We let China have Taiwan - peaceful handover like Hong Kong - in exchange for North Korea.