"Beijing is hosting the Olympics then. They will wait until after that if they invade at all. I don't think they will."
There is no way the Chinese would screw-up their shot at hosting the Olympics. There would be a massive boycott. You're right...if they invade at all, they'll wait.
you assume the world in the next 2-3 years is like it is today -- i do not. if china has mobilized even more by then and the US has become weakened by economic or energy woes and/or appears militarily overstretched, then what better time? do tell me they *really* give a damn what the EU, the US or Australia would think if they actually invaded during the olympics? how many divisions would France offer Taiwan to defend itself? or Germany? or India? or LULA-ized Brazil? or Venezuela? or Iran? or North Korea? Russia? now how many divisions would New Zealand offer? the Phillipines? Australia? Japan?
ANY attack on Taiwan will result in condemnation of china -- it will be the "invasion of poland" analog from a fascist china, and what is the difference of a few months if that would lull conventional thinking in the west to relax a little bit, and perhaps give them an edge in their strike against Taiwan? it is clear to everyone that even with two more years of preparation, taiwan will *NOT* be a pushover. if china is serious about invading, they will seek *every* advantage they can to improve their odds. doing it during the olympics will hurt not one whit. most countries will look the other way. after all folks, USSR didn't let the upcoming olympics deter their invasion of afghanistan and so what if little jimmuh boycotted?
the parallels are there...