[Altair333]

They are confusing capability with intent.

It's obvious that China wants a superpower-level military to go along with what is rapidly becoming a superpower-level economy. It'd be surprising if they were not using all these hundreds of billions of dollars to build up their military.

That doesn't mean they are going to risk all their economic progress by going to war. China right now is just experiencing the great benefits of peaceful capatalism. Sure, it's possible they will decide for war, but they strike me as a pretty rational lot, for all their lack of democracy. This isn't some whacko middle eastern regime like Iran or a nutcase government like North Korea.

[Vn_survivor_67-68]

Good assessment IMO. Gertz tends to be the "balance" to Seymour Hersh of the Left.

[grayforkbeard]

Go back to the nation of Japan.

Go all the way back to the 1920's and 1930's.

There you will find the answer to what the future holds.

They will fund the next war with our $. They will use a surprise attack hit and run operation designed to keep the U.S. out of the war while they mop up the entire west Pac.

We are supposed to sue for peace before the ashes are cold.

That is their failure. They are convinced that the American culture will run for mommy. This is the same thinking that got Japan into WWII.

We all know how that ended.

[SampleMan]

The Chinese are extremely nationalistic. They want Taiwan back badly, they want to show that they are a world power. They don't want war with the United States, but that doesn't mean that they won't go to war. They also see a closing window on their opportunity to force Taiwan to unify. Their writing is full of this. Their leaders are heavily invested in this. The trick for the Chinese will to carry out the deed without having a full scale war with us. My guess is that they will plan on being lightning fast, intimidating our regional allies, and forcing capitulation on Taiwan before we can really mobilize. The Chinese might logically assume that once Taiwan has folded, say from 1000 missile strikes, that we won't carry on a war to "liberate" a country that has willfully negotiated its surrender.

[coconutt2000]

The primary problem is Chinese Domestic Instability.

If at some point capitalism and personal wealth generates a domestic movement for greater Democratic institutions, China may distract its internal detractors by going to war. A state of war will allow internal security forces to round up dissenters, while at the same time directing the energies of the country at an external war.

It is short term thinking, on the part of the Chinese leadership, but since it is a balancing act between progress and maintaining power, it is no surprise that China's near future is unpredictable. It could swing any way, at any time.

I personally believe there will be a war in Asia involving China within 5-10 years, or an internal collapse. I think 2 years is a highly optimistic or pessimistic prediction.