Posted on 06/16/2005 5:49:13 PM PDT by CHARLITE
The French sociologist Emmanuel Todd was one of the few experts to predict the fall of the Soviet Union. Now he is predicting the fall of the United States of America.
His book After the Empire: The Breakdown of the American Order (Columbia University Press, 2003) has been a bestseller in Europe. It plays into many Europeans' sentiments against the Iraq war and their belief that America has become an Evil Empire. (See "The Darth Vader fallacy," June 11.) But his book offers encouragement to America-phobes: Far from being an invincible hyperpower, according to Mr. Todd, the United States is really weak, decadent, and falling apart.
America's current war-mongering, in his view, is its last-ditch effort to be relevant in the new global environment that doesn't need it anymore. America's vaunted military is actually weak, only capable of picking on tiny countries. Even though America liberated his country, Mr. Todd insists the U.S. military was not so great even in World War II. Russia won the war, he claims, not America.
Isn't radical Islam a threat to the world? Not at all, says Mr. Todd. All cultures go through a revolution as they enter modernity. Islamic revolutionaries frame their ideology in religious terms. But so did the English revolutionaries when the Puritans beheaded the king and established the modern principle of parliamentary supremacy. So did the American revolutionaries. But the religiosity soon fades away once the revolution ushers in modernity. All revolutions are violent. Today's jihadist revolutions are just Islamic societies entering the modern world.
Isn't American democracy the beacon of the world? No. While the rest of the world is indeed becoming more democratic, America is losing its democracy. Mr. Todd points to the gap between the rich and the poor and the rise of powerful corporate elites. He maintains that America is becoming an oligarchy, in which only a few–the rich and the powerful–truly rule.
Mr. Todd sounds like a Democrat in his critique of the U.S. economy. America is actually dependent on the rest of the world for its investment capital, labor, and products. Pointing to the trade imbalance and the budget deficits, Mr. Todd says that America is no longer capable of production. All we know how to do is consume. And once the world stops subsidizing the American economy, our standard of living will collapse.
Into the vacuum left by the demise of America will rush the unified Europe. Contrary to the common assumption, he says, Americans and Europeans do not have the same civilization. America is still backwardly religious. Europeans, though, have embraced modern secularism. Europeans have nothing against Muslims. European economies are proudly protectionist, their foreign policies peaceful, and their governments truly democratic.
Mr. Todd predicted the fall of the Soviet Union by applying his crackpot theory that social liberation is a function of high education and low birthrates. Russia's birthrate fell so precipitously–largely from abortions–that Mr. Todd felt freedom was at hand. He guessed the outcome but surely missed the reasons. Mr. Todd is optimistic about Europe mainly because birthrates have fallen below replacement level, which he considers to be a good thing.
Never mind the economists panicked about the labor crisis that awaits the next generation. Or the historians who see such low birthrates as a mark of a civilization in decline. Or the political observers who see the Islamification of Europe–and the end of its secularism–as Muslim immigrants outpopulate native Europeans and vote themselves into power.
Today, Mr. Todd's boasts ring hollow. The statist European economies are stagnating, with unemployment as much as 10 percent and overregulated businesses unable to compete globally. Muslim terrorists are now striking the tolerant Europeans. And now Europeans–even the French–are voting against the constitution of the European Union.
Mr. Todd's projections are a mix of leftist ideology, the postmodernist construction of alternative truths, and, above all, wishful thinking. —•
It's called "whistling past the grave yard."
I thought France defeated the Soviet Union in the Cold War.
Look out! It appears that Europe is ripe for social liberation!
But the religiosity soon fades away once the revolution ushers in modernity. All revolutions are violent. Today's jihadist revolutions are just Islamic societies entering the modern world.
Oh boy, they have entering the modernity since the V century!.
So the EUorcrats now say it is not the EU collapsing it is the USA?
Seems like the USSR lovers are at it again.
Also seems the crackpot was right for the wrong reasons and right because of dumb luck.
Wonder if Durbin is the Ghostwriter?
The Napoleonic Era.....circa 1790 to 1812-ish, before Napoleon decided to invade Mother Russia.......and the most recent period before that was under Louis XIV, the Sun King and his son, Louis XV in the 16th-17th centuries. So, you could say that it's been awhile since France was on top of the world, so to speak.
Thanks for your question.
Char :)
Could that be the case again? We have foreign invaders on our southern border, a Social Security system that is on the verge of collapse, and a health-care system that is also in ruin.
All we need to do is be stupid enough to elect President Rodham, and we're well on the way to being finished.
This describes the democrats, not the United States.
"Into the vacuum left by the demise of America will rush the unified Europe."
Bull$hit! I'm convinced that the world could not survive without the United States....especially France. They practically welcomed the Nazi's during World War II and they'd do the same thing to the militant Muslims....thus allowing the Muslims to take over and rule over them with an iron fist!
This jerk forget's that American's are buried on their soil. They were put there in an effort to win the French there freedom. Ingrate SOB's!!!!!
Right, how many russians are buried on French soil.
Right, how many russians are buried on French soil.
Under Louis Quatorze, le roi soleil.
America is still backwardly religious. Europeans, though, have embraced modern secularism. Europeans have nothing against Muslims.
Muslims however have something against Europeans, having
been thrashed by them hundreds of years ago, aside from
the fact that Europeans are unclean infidel dhimmis.
That impression was somewhere between my head and fingertips, unformed yet.
This is how empty pride in the past turns into comfortable ignorance. No objective awareness of surroundings here.
Very similar to Dean speaking to his wackos and kooks. They don't see themselves as others see them and believe they are immortal. That is deadly.
(fairly close to what my unformed impression immediately was)
As long as America keeps its doors open to any immigrants who wants to come, America will never collapse. Third World immigration enriches our culture, and improves our diversity. That is a good thing because there is strength in diversity. I think, but I could be wrong.
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