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Fleeing Twister May Be Safer Than Staying Put, Study Finds
Newhouse News Service ^ | June 15, 2005

Posted on 06/16/2005 3:57:38 AM PDT by kingattax

A 1999 tornado killed Samantha and Deon Darnell's infant son and Deon's mother. The Darnells are pictured here with children born since the tragedy: Abigail, 4; Gabriel, 5; and Michael, 2. (Photo by Bryan Terry)

OKLAHOMA CITY -- The tornado was born to the southwest, a monster on the plains. A mile wide, the furious funnel of red dirt erased homes from foundations, tossed tractor-trailers, peeled pavement from earth and killed 36 people.

For thousands stuck in its path, the most urgent question -- to run or to hide -- arrived in an instant. A new analysis suggests fleeing, usually not recommended, was the best choice; the findings are expected to jump-start a long-standing debate on tornado survival.

Linda Wood, home from work, found her family in the driveway. Get back in the truck, they said. With their pregnant horse in tow, the Woods sped east. Their house exploded minutes later, as if hit by a gas bomb, neighbors said.

"We outran it," says Wood, tears spilling at the memory.

Deon Darnell had fewer options. Hailstones were battering his mobile home. He rushed next door to his parents' house, squeezing into a windowless closet with six relatives. They prayed aloud.

Moments later, windows shattered and house timbers snapped. When Darnell opened his eyes, his two-story boyhood house had vanished. His mother lay nearby, dead. His wife was unconscious. Their infant boy was gone.

"It pulled the water out of the ponds, and the grass out of the ground," Darnell said. "I wasn't even sure if I was on my property."

The decision to flee or take cover from a tornado requires instant calculus: When will it arrive? How big? If I stay, where can I find safety? Should I run for the car?

Those who study tornadoes have traditionally ranked the options: Underground storm shelters are best, followed by basements, bathrooms or closets without windows. Sprinting to a car or truck has never topped the list.

But the new study of Oklahoma's legendary May 3, 1999 tornado challenges the tenet that taking flight is foolishness. In that storm, people cowering at home were more likely to die than those fleeing in vehicles, according to the analysis newly published in the American Journal of Epidemiology.

The paper, authored by federal and state researchers who reviewed coroner and medical reports, plus survey responses from more than 600 survivors, confirms that people caught in mobile homes face the worst odds. In the giant Oklahoma City tornado, they were 35 times more likely to die than those in permanent houses.

But the more provocative finding -- that those who tried to out-maneuver the tornado fared as well or better than those who hunkered down in homes -- is bound to stir controversy.

About 16 percent of people in the Oklahoma storm path tried to flee, researchers estimated. Two people were killed trying to reach their vehicles. Two others, killed under highway overpasses, which can act like wind tunnels in tornadoes, may have been fleeing.

Twenty-eight people died in their homes.

Relying on their sampling, the researchers calculated that people fleeing in vehicles had a 40 percent lower risk of death than those hiding in homes, including houses, apartments and mobile homes.

Better weather forecasting and advanced warnings, extensive TV coverage and increasingly sturdy cars may have helped people escape the tornado, said the paper's lead author, Dr. W. Randolph Daley, a researcher at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The findings suggest tornado safety guidelines may need modifying, but Daley and others noted that the Oklahoma tornado was an unusual beast. Its size attracted massive attention, and its duration -- nearly 90 minutes -- provided lots of warning. Other tornadoes have resulted in numerous vehicle-related casualties.

"It raises a lot of questions about fleeing," cautioned co-author Sheryll Brown, an Oklahoma State Department of Health epidemiologist. "You have to consider traffic tie-ups and panic. It's really a difficult issue."

The Oklahoma tornado was actually one of 61 twisters that hit the state on that Monday afternoon and evening. It was the largest tornado outbreak in state history, and the biggest tornado claimed 36 of the 40 people killed.

The largest was spotted at 6:23 p.m. about 30 miles southwest of downtown Oklahoma City. It drilled northeast through rural areas, winds quickly jumping from 100 mph to nearly 300 mph -- the first category F5 tornado recorded in Oklahoma history.

Ground zero was Bridge Creek, a small rural community absent from most maps. First came hail, then unimaginable fury -- mobile homes swept from their foundations or obliterated, inch-thick asphalt sucked from a rural road, cars tossed a quarter-mile. Twelve died in Bridge Creek.

Trudging northeast, the tornado stripped paint off fire hydrants and sucked the eyeballs from a horse. Entire housing developments were leveled. In Oklahoma City, an airplane wing fell from an airport 40 miles away. In an industrial zone, a 18-ton rail left gouge marks as it bounced across an open field.

When the tornado finally died east of downtown, its legacy was complete: 1,800 homes destroyed and $1 billion in damage. Disaster workers arriving by plane were rendered speechless by the tornado's signature -- a 37-mile swath of bare earth.

More than 600 required hospital treatment. Coroner reports on the dead showed some lost their lives due to bad judgment, others because of horrible luck:

-- A 40-year-old woman with her son at her side was swept from beneath a highway overpass. Her body was found in a field.

-- A 43-year-old woman who didn't like her storm cellar took cover in a bathroom with her dog and cat. Her husband found her body under their recreational vehicle.

-- A 46-year-old woman visiting her parents in their brick home was smothered apparently after hiding beneath a bed that was crushed by debris.

-- A 45-year-old man was killed when winds lifted his car from an interstate and ejected him onto the median.

-- An 86-year-old trucker-turned-minister died when a truck crashed through his roof. He was hiding in the same closet as his wife, who survived.

"A lot of people died despite going to the right locations in their homes," said Ken James, a National Weather Service meteorologist in Norman. "This was such a large and destructive tornado, you really needed to be below ground."

Deon and Samantha Darnell, living in Bridge Creek, had no chance to flee. When the hail came, the tornado wall was close enough to see its churning debris. They couldn't even reach a storm cellar 100 yards away.

The family huddled in the under-stairs closet for about half a minute before his parents' home vanished in the giant vacuum. Deon was the only one in the family to remain conscious, he said. His mother, Lucille, lay nearby in a flowered shirt and purple pants; she had died instantly. Deon, his back broken in three places, remembers lying on the muddy earth and looking up at rescue workers: "Make sure you find my son," he said. When they found 3-week-old Asheton, he was dead.

Jennifer Freeman, 41, also of Bridge Creek, said she and her husband, Oscar Ray, received more than a half-dozen calls from relatives before deciding to leave. As they did, hailstones began to fall.

The couple, since divorced, rushed to retrieve their two boys from their grandmother's house. That night, Ray returned to the neighborhood alone and called Freeman from a cell phone as he approached their property. Because of roadblocks, he had to walk two miles under moonlight.

One neighbor's house lay dumped in a road. Another's was torn in half. When Ray reached their property, he gave the verdict on their home and barn: both gone. What about my Monte Carlo, Freeman asked. Gone, Ray said. The next day, Freeman inspected for herself.

"There were dead animals everywhere -- horses, cattle, goats, dogs. I later found out that there were human remains removed from our own front yard."

Sandy Henry, an Oklahoma City school administrator, and her husband, David, a utility company supervisor, took cover from the tornado just as recommended -- curled up in a tub in an interior bathroom. Before it reached their two-story brick home in Oklahoma City, Sandy Henry says she recalls thinking the approaching tornado looked odd. From her back porch, all she could see were enormous clouds of red dirt.

"At no time could you see a funnel cloud," said Henry.

Relatives called to warn them. The couple never considered fleeing "because of the unpredictability" of such a storm, Henry said. The couple retreated to the bathroom, David Henry holding their dachshund beneath one arm. They nestled into the tub under pillows to block flying glass and splinters.

David Henry reminded his wife of his love for her, and then it hit, Sandy Henry said. The sound was indescribable -- not like a jet engine, not like a freight train. "I don't know how to explain it," she said.

Then the tornado was gone, and Henry heard the hissing of broken gas lines. When she got her bearings, she realized the couple had tumbled from the tub. The house was destroyed. Their hot tub, filled with water, had vanished. Someone's truck had crashed through their roof.

Sandy remained conscious. But David Henry died, crushed by debris.

"You think you're doing the right thing," said Sandy. "But it didn't matter."


TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: Oklahoma
KEYWORDS: twister
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1 posted on 06/16/2005 3:57:39 AM PDT by kingattax
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To: kingattax
If I can run and have a path, I'm going for it....

Mike

2 posted on 06/16/2005 4:02:34 AM PDT by MichaelP
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To: kingattax

In the Witchita Falls, TX, tornado of 1979, practically all those who died were in cars or in the mall parking lot, trying to get to their cars. Some who were in cars and survived, said their engines quit as the tornado sucked the air away from their vehicles. As the article said, it depends on how far away you are and how fast it's traveling. Given my choice, I'd opt for a well-constructed underground storm cellar, called "fraidy holes" in Tornado Alley.


3 posted on 06/16/2005 4:10:42 AM PDT by kittymyrib
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To: MichaelP; kingattax


Agree.. For all my life I've believed that the best way to escape a tornado is to drive from it. Very few of these storms move faster than 35-40 mph, the fastest ones 60 mph.. It seems insane to me to sit in a house with one of these things barreling down at you.

My instincts have always said, "Run". A persons instincts are usually always right.


4 posted on 06/16/2005 4:25:59 AM PDT by Josh in PA
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To: Josh in PA

I have visions of a traffic jam on the road out of town.


5 posted on 06/16/2005 4:35:42 AM PDT by Rennes Templar ("The future ain't what it used to be".........Yogi Berra)
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To: Josh in PA
THIS JUST IN

Fleeing a house engulfed in flames can prevent burns!!

6 posted on 06/16/2005 4:37:22 AM PDT by skimbell
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To: Josh in PA

I have survived several tornado's right here in NoVa area. The best thing i could say about it is you have to do what is best, in one case i was in a vehicle and actually stopped 25 yards from it as it dropped into a parking lot and then after about 20 seconds back up again. Another time one dropped right down in front of my house in my neighbors back yard and tore up trees (throwing some on the neighbors car and on a shopping center, and on the local police sub-station). While i watched the second one hit my family was deep in my basement, and i was ready to hit the basement if it turned toward my house instead of the path it was on. In some areas you just have nowhere to go because of street layout and lack of visibility and traffic.


7 posted on 06/16/2005 4:40:53 AM PDT by TrailofTears
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To: kingattax
A new analysis suggests fleeing, usually not recommended

Stupid.

If you got a chance to get out its way, do it.

8 posted on 06/16/2005 4:43:41 AM PDT by demlosers (Allegra: Do not believe the garbage the media is feeding you back home.)
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To: kingattax
How to outrun a tornado
9 posted on 06/16/2005 4:49:58 AM PDT by m1-lightning (God, Guns, and Country!)
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To: TrailofTears

You mean Norfolk, Virginia ?


10 posted on 06/16/2005 4:53:48 AM PDT by brwnsuga (Proud, Black, Conservative!)
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To: kingattax

Seems to me that the best thing to do is consider the situation, and act accordingly. Chances are, you won't have researchers there to advise you when the time arrives to make that decision.


11 posted on 06/16/2005 4:54:27 AM PDT by Rose of Sharn
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To: kingattax

Look what happened to Dorothy when she stayed put.


12 posted on 06/16/2005 4:55:12 AM PDT by freedumb2003 (Of all the idiots I've known in my life, none of them were retarded (W. Earl Brown - "Warren," SAM))
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To: kingattax

Now, when everyone gets finished reading this, the ratio of deaths among fleeing victims will dramatically increase as people get stuck in traffic jams trying to get to the nearest interstate while the 15 or 20 people left in town sit in their basements watching The Weather Channel.


13 posted on 06/16/2005 5:02:45 AM PDT by Hatteras
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To: kingattax
A mile wide,

A tornado can be a mile wide?? Is that the truth???

14 posted on 06/16/2005 5:06:59 AM PDT by Fawn
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To: Josh in PA

If everybody tries to run, you aren't going anywhere. The roads will be gridlocked.


15 posted on 06/16/2005 5:09:14 AM PDT by FreedomPoster
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To: Fawn

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/index.html


What was the biggest known tornado? The Hallam, Nebraska F4 tornado of 22 May 2004 is the newest record-holder for peak width, at nearly two and a half miles, as surveyed by Brian Smith of NWS Omaha. This is probably close to the maximum size for tornadoes; but it is possible that larger, unrecorded ones have occurred.


16 posted on 06/16/2005 5:10:40 AM PDT by kingattax
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To: kingattax

OMG...I'm really amazed. I never knew they could get that big....


17 posted on 06/16/2005 5:22:12 AM PDT by Fawn
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To: Fawn
A tornado can be a mile wide?? Is that the truth???

Yes. The Tri-State Tornado of 1925.

NOAA/NWS 1925 Tri-State Tornado Web Site--Startling Statistics

On March 18, 1925, the Great Tri-State Tornado tore across Southeast Missouri, Southern Illinois, and Southwest Indiana. With its rapid movement, monstrous size, and long track, the tornado took hundreds of lives and injured thousands. By all means, the Tri-State Tornado was a rare event—an event that few people will ever experience in their lifetime. To give you some idea of this tornado’s magnitude, this section is devoted to a list of incredible statistics on the tornado.

Missouri: Reynolds, Iron, Madison, Bollinger, Perry

Illinois: Jackson, Williamson, Franklin, Hamilton, White

Indiana: Posey, Gibson, Pike

Missouri: Ellington, Redford, Leadanna, Annapolis, Cornwall, Biehle, Frohna

Illinois: Gorham, Murphysboro, De Soto, Hurst-Bush, Zeigler, West Frankfort, Eighteen, Parrish, Crossville

Indiana: Griffin, Owensville, Princeton

 

 

18 posted on 06/16/2005 5:24:16 AM PDT by Ocracoke Island
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To: Josh in PA; All
For all my life I've believed that the best way to escape a tornado is to drive from it.

No, NO, NO!

Trust me, I have never and will never live anywhere but eastern Oklahoma. We know these monsters are coming, and most of us know that the only safe place to hide from them is underground. If we don't own a "Fraidy hole", we know someone who does. Most churches here have fortified underground facilities and make sure they are open at times of severe weather (like last night... Wow).

Driving during a tornado warning is best left to fools and storm chasers.

And before you ask, yes, I have lost a double-wide mobile home to a tornado. (Step one in my quest to be classified as a Redneck).My home was in Catoosa, Ok, NE side of Tulsa. I was visiting my brother in Sapulpa, Ok, SW side of Tulsa. We had no idea there was even a storm 25 miles away until a friend called my brother to see if he had heard from me.

These storms form fast and there is usually less than 7 minutes warning before they strike. Debris, traffic, and distracted drivers make fleeing by car the worst possible solution. It is recommended that drivers leave their vehicle and hide in a ditch or depression in the ground if that's all that is available, rather than staying in a car.

19 posted on 06/16/2005 5:29:25 AM PDT by acad1228 ("We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid" - Benjamin Franklin)
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To: kingattax

I am ususally astonished by those ubiquitous videos on the Weather Channel showing bare slab-foundations. I understand that if one lives in a trailer-home, one might not afford a tornado-shelter, but everyone? C'mon, even Dorothy and Toto had one.


20 posted on 06/16/2005 5:33:35 AM PDT by 1rudeboy
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