Posted on 06/11/2005 1:38:16 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Sprawling, misshapen and messy, Tropical Storm Arlene slogged north Friday through the Gulf of Mexico for its expected arrival near Florida's Panhandle today.
The National Hurricane Center in Miami said Friday that Arlene could have winds topping 70 mph this afternoon.
Forecasters put landfall sometime this afternoon near the border of Florida and Alabama. Gov. Jeb Bush has declared a state of emergency. Forecasters say Arlene could become a minimal hurricane, which means winds of more than 74 mph.
With most of the wind and rain to the east and north of Arlene's ill-defined center, forecasters said bad weather will arrive hours before the eye reaches land.
In the Tampa Bay area, the weather may clear by the afternoon, said Tom Dougherty, National Weather Service meteorologist in Ruskin.
``There should still be a lot of activity early Saturday morning. But we may at least see a little sunshine by the afternoon,'' he said.
Arlene spread less than an inch of rain Friday over the state, with a few places getting several inches, Dougherty said.
The rain was expected to continue during the night, however, and eventually total 2 to 5 inches.
A flood watch was posted Friday for all of the Bay area until tonight. Residents in flood-prone areas should be prepared. A tornado watch was in effect until 8 a.m. today.
The weather service issued several tornado warnings Friday for Highlands, DeSoto and Manatee counties when radar showed conditions were right for twisters to form.
There were no reports of any being spotted or touching down, Dougherty said.
Even with only a mild brush from Arlene, the storm may have caused one death Friday.
A Russian exchange student died after being pulled from the waves off Miami Beach early Friday, officials said.
West side of Mobile Bay.
Stay safe, FRiend!
Thanks.
Dr Steve Lyons (Weather Channel) just said the TS is now making a northward turn/drift instead of the previous WNW direction...that's better news for me.
It's breezy here now but the rain has slackened some.
It seems odd that the heavier cloudmass is in the NW quadrant, though. Must be the effect of the dry air entering the SW quadrant.
Our children live in Foley. Stay safe
Take care, everybody!
I'll check this thread when I get home later in the afternoon.
IG --- she did get more rain damage, but nothing dramatic.
Thanks. Kids should be safe over there. Nice little rural coastal town.
Tropical Storm Arlene Advisory Number 13
Statement as of 10:00 am CDT on June 11, 2005
...Winds and rains increasing along the northern Gulf Coast as the
center of Arlene approaches...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for portions of the north
central Gulf Coast from Pascagoula Mississippi eastward to Destin
Florida.
A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect
from the mouth of the Pearl River eastward to west of Pascagoula
Mississippi...and also from east of Destin Florida eastward to
Indian Pass Florida.
At 10 am CDT...1500 UTC...the Tropical Storm Warning from east of
Ochlocknee river to Steinhatchee river has been discontinued.
A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the northern Gulf
Coast from Grand Isle Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl
River...including the city of New Orleans and Lake
Pontchartrain...and also from Indian Pass Florida eastward to
Ochlocknee river Florida.
Interests elsewhere in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and the
southeastern United States should closely monitor the progress of
this system.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 10 am CDT...1500z...the center of Tropical Storm Arlene was
estimated near latitude 29.6 north...longitude 87.4 west or about
110 miles east-northeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River
and about 85 miles south-southeast of Mobile Alabama.
Arlene is moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph. On this
track...the center of Arlene should cross the coast within the
warning area later today.
Arlene remains just below hurricane strength with maximum sustained
winds near 70 mph with higher gusts. There is still a slight chance
for Arlene to become a hurricane before landfall.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles mainly to
the north and east of the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb...29.23 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.
Water levels are currently about one to two feet above normal tide
levels along the northern Gulf Coast.
Rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches can be expected with Arlene
from the eastern and central Gulf Coast northward through the
Tennessee Valley and into the lower to middle Ohio Valley over the
next two days. Isolated maximum rainfall totals of 8 inches are
possible in the vicinity of the Gulf Coast.
Isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of southern
Alabama...southwestern Georgia...the Florida Panhandle...and
northwestern Florida today.
Repeating the 10 am CDT position...29.6 N... 87.4 W. Movement
toward...north-northwest near 14 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 70 mph. Minimum central pressure... 990 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 1 PM CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 4 PM
CDT.
Forecaster Avila/Knabb
Arlene has not strengthened since last night. The storm continues with a well-defined and large circulation...but deep convection is limited to some bands to the north and west of the center. Minimum pressure has been oscillating around 990 mb according to fixes from hurricane hunter planes. Maximum winds have remained at 60 knots. However...this estimate may be a little generous. Due to the current structure on satellite...it appears that the chances of Arlene becoming a hurricane before landfall are decreasing. However...the cyclone will be over water for a few more hours and the development of another burst of convection...like the one that occurred yesterday...could bring the winds up to hurricane status. Given such uncertainty...the best option is to keep the Hurricane Warning at this time.
Arlene has slowed down a little and is now moving toward the north-northwest at about 12 knots. No significant change in the steering currrents is anticipated...and the center of Arlene should cross the coast within the warning area later today. After landfall Arlene should weaken but continue spreading heavy rains through the Tennessee Valley and into the lower to middle Ohio Valley over the next two days. Tropical cyclones are not just a coastal event and heavy rains could occur well inland and long after the center crosses the coast.
Rewind to yesterday afternoon--same thing here. Rained buckets all night long. Good news--sun is out now for the first time in four days!
Dry air has circulated around the outer portion of the circulation to the south and even east, but the center looks quite well defined at current. There is a general lack of deep convection though, it's not a very pretty storm on water vapor or IR at all. The visible shots are quite pretty though.
http://ianlivingston.com/weather/images/2005/june11_sat_noon.jpg
Continued internet radio coverage of Arlene here:
http://66.98.251.190:9032/listen.pls
Not that three or four mph suddenly makes it a kitten or turns it into a monster....
I'd call that a Pensacola bullseye. What's odd is that Panama City looks like it's only getting scattered clouds.
Florida residents are fortunate this storm hauled butt and didn't spend another two days out in the Gulf.
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