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Soggy Arlene Expected To Make Landfall This Afternoon
Tampa Tribune/TBO.com ^ | Jun 11, 2005 | NEIL JOHNSON

Posted on 06/11/2005 1:38:16 AM PDT by NautiNurse

Sprawling, misshapen and messy, Tropical Storm Arlene slogged north Friday through the Gulf of Mexico for its expected arrival near Florida's Panhandle today.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami said Friday that Arlene could have winds topping 70 mph this afternoon.

Forecasters put landfall sometime this afternoon near the border of Florida and Alabama. Gov. Jeb Bush has declared a state of emergency. Forecasters say Arlene could become a minimal hurricane, which means winds of more than 74 mph.

With most of the wind and rain to the east and north of Arlene's ill-defined center, forecasters said bad weather will arrive hours before the eye reaches land.

In the Tampa Bay area, the weather may clear by the afternoon, said Tom Dougherty, National Weather Service meteorologist in Ruskin.

``There should still be a lot of activity early Saturday morning. But we may at least see a little sunshine by the afternoon,'' he said.

Arlene spread less than an inch of rain Friday over the state, with a few places getting several inches, Dougherty said.

The rain was expected to continue during the night, however, and eventually total 2 to 5 inches.

A flood watch was posted Friday for all of the Bay area until tonight. Residents in flood-prone areas should be prepared. A tornado watch was in effect until 8 a.m. today.

The weather service issued several tornado warnings Friday for Highlands, DeSoto and Manatee counties when radar showed conditions were right for twisters to form.

There were no reports of any being spotted or touching down, Dougherty said.

Even with only a mild brush from Arlene, the storm may have caused one death Friday.

A Russian exchange student died after being pulled from the waves off Miami Beach early Friday, officials said.


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; US: Alabama; US: Florida; US: Louisiana; US: Mississippi
KEYWORDS: arlene; hurricane; tropicalstorm
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To: mariabush
"Where are you????????"

West side of Mobile Bay.

21 posted on 06/11/2005 6:07:29 AM PDT by blam
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To: blam

Stay safe, FRiend!


22 posted on 06/11/2005 6:18:53 AM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: All
June 11 Visible (9:30am)


23 posted on 06/11/2005 6:39:30 AM PDT by nwctwx
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To: Dog Gone
"Stay safe, FRiend!"

Thanks.

Dr Steve Lyons (Weather Channel) just said the TS is now making a northward turn/drift instead of the previous WNW direction...that's better news for me.
It's breezy here now but the rain has slackened some.

24 posted on 06/11/2005 7:04:30 AM PDT by blam
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To: nwctwx
Great photo!

It seems odd that the heavier cloudmass is in the NW quadrant, though. Must be the effect of the dry air entering the SW quadrant.

25 posted on 06/11/2005 7:08:12 AM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: blam

Our children live in Foley. Stay safe


26 posted on 06/11/2005 7:11:26 AM PDT by Coldwater Creek ('We voted like we prayed")
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To: NautiNurse; Iowa Granny; Gabz; dawn53; All

Take care, everybody!

I'll check this thread when I get home later in the afternoon.

IG --- she did get more rain damage, but nothing dramatic.



27 posted on 06/11/2005 7:23:02 AM PDT by onyx (Pope John Paul II - May 18, 1920 - April 2, 2005 = SANTO SUBITO!)
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To: mariabush
"Our children live in Foley. Stay safe"

Thanks. Kids should be safe over there. Nice little rural coastal town.

28 posted on 06/11/2005 7:57:24 AM PDT by blam
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To: libtoken

Tropical Storm Arlene Advisory Number 13


Statement as of 10:00 am CDT on June 11, 2005


...Winds and rains increasing along the northern Gulf Coast as the
center of Arlene approaches...

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for portions of the north
central Gulf Coast from Pascagoula Mississippi eastward to Destin
Florida.

A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect
from the mouth of the Pearl River eastward to west of Pascagoula
Mississippi...and also from east of Destin Florida eastward to
Indian Pass Florida.

At 10 am CDT...1500 UTC...the Tropical Storm Warning from east of
Ochlocknee river to Steinhatchee river has been discontinued.

A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the northern Gulf
Coast from Grand Isle Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl
River...including the city of New Orleans and Lake
Pontchartrain...and also from Indian Pass Florida eastward to
Ochlocknee river Florida.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and the
southeastern United States should closely monitor the progress of
this system.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 10 am CDT...1500z...the center of Tropical Storm Arlene was
estimated near latitude 29.6 north...longitude 87.4 west or about
110 miles east-northeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River
and about 85 miles south-southeast of Mobile Alabama.

Arlene is moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph. On this
track...the center of Arlene should cross the coast within the
warning area later today.

Arlene remains just below hurricane strength with maximum sustained
winds near 70 mph with higher gusts. There is still a slight chance
for Arlene to become a hurricane before landfall.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles mainly to
the north and east of the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb...29.23 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.
Water levels are currently about one to two feet above normal tide
levels along the northern Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches can be expected with Arlene
from the eastern and central Gulf Coast northward through the
Tennessee Valley and into the lower to middle Ohio Valley over the
next two days. Isolated maximum rainfall totals of 8 inches are
possible in the vicinity of the Gulf Coast.

Isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of southern
Alabama...southwestern Georgia...the Florida Panhandle...and
northwestern Florida today.
Repeating the 10 am CDT position...29.6 N... 87.4 W. Movement
toward...north-northwest near 14 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 70 mph. Minimum central pressure... 990 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 1 PM CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 4 PM
CDT.

Forecaster Avila/Knabb


29 posted on 06/11/2005 8:12:23 AM PDT by libtoken
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To: libtoken
Tropical Storm Arlene Discussion Number 13

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on June 11, 2005

 
Arlene has not strengthened since last night.  The storm continues
with a well-defined and large circulation...but deep convection is
limited to some bands to the north and west of the center. Minimum
pressure has been oscillating around 990 mb according to fixes from 
hurricane hunter planes. Maximum winds have remained at 60 knots. 
However...this estimate may be a little generous. Due to the
current structure on satellite...it appears that the chances of
Arlene becoming a hurricane before landfall are decreasing.
However...the cyclone will be over water for a few more hours and 
the development of another burst of convection...like the one that
occurred yesterday...could bring the winds up to hurricane status.
Given such uncertainty...the best option is to keep the Hurricane
Warning at this time.

Arlene has slowed down a little and is now moving toward the
north-northwest at about 12 knots. No significant change in the
steering currrents is anticipated...and the center of Arlene should
cross the coast within the warning area later today. After landfall
Arlene should weaken but continue spreading heavy rains through the
Tennessee Valley and into the lower to middle Ohio Valley over the
next two days. Tropical cyclones are not just a coastal event and
heavy rains could occur well inland and long after the center
crosses the coast.

30 posted on 06/11/2005 8:17:09 AM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: NautiNurse
Not to downplay the effects of those in the path are experiencing but take a look at the weather radar out of Melbourne Florida. There is quite a mess right off-shore and the barrier island is feeling the effects. Between 5 and 6 AM the weather radio alert kept going off first for a tornado warning then a watch then another warning ... pretty wild stuff.
31 posted on 06/11/2005 8:39:22 AM PDT by NonValueAdded (NEWSWEEK LIED, PEOPLE DIED)
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To: NonValueAdded
Between 5 and 6 AM the weather radio alert kept going off first for a tornado warning then a watch then another warning ... pretty wild stuff.

Rewind to yesterday afternoon--same thing here. Rained buckets all night long. Good news--sun is out now for the first time in four days!

32 posted on 06/11/2005 8:51:04 AM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: Dog Gone

Dry air has circulated around the outer portion of the circulation to the south and even east, but the center looks quite well defined at current. There is a general lack of deep convection though, it's not a very pretty storm on water vapor or IR at all. The visible shots are quite pretty though.

http://ianlivingston.com/weather/images/2005/june11_sat_noon.jpg


33 posted on 06/11/2005 9:03:19 AM PDT by nwctwx
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To: All

Continued internet radio coverage of Arlene here:

http://66.98.251.190:9032/listen.pls


34 posted on 06/11/2005 9:09:51 AM PDT by nwctwx
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To: nwctwx

http://hurricanetrack.com/


35 posted on 06/11/2005 9:15:43 AM PDT by nwctwx
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To: nwctwx
The center has definitely tightened up as it approaches the coast. I don't think it will make hurricane status officially, though.

Not that three or four mph suddenly makes it a kitten or turns it into a monster....

36 posted on 06/11/2005 9:37:05 AM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: Dog Gone; All
Landfall, looks like this will count as a FL hit... right over Pensacola.


37 posted on 06/11/2005 12:40:09 PM PDT by nwctwx
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To: nwctwx

I'd call that a Pensacola bullseye. What's odd is that Panama City looks like it's only getting scattered clouds.


38 posted on 06/11/2005 12:43:53 PM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: Dog Gone

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/uploads/post-332-1118518674.gif


39 posted on 06/11/2005 12:46:10 PM PDT by nwctwx
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To: nwctwx
Looks like a nice, sunny day in Pensacola right now. ;-)

Florida residents are fortunate this storm hauled butt and didn't spend another two days out in the Gulf.

40 posted on 06/11/2005 12:57:30 PM PDT by Dog Gone
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