Arlene -- NOT FL but New Orleans/ Delta, then Memphis and Chi town
Arlene: Ideas and Estimates
And, guess what... new invest up already.
Posted on 06/08/2005 3:59:21 PM PDT by Lonely Bull
000 WTNT31 KNHC 082059 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED JUN 08 2005
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR WESTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES... 375 KM... SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 315 MILES... 510 KM...SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AS IT ORGANIZES...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY IN RAINBANDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
HEAVY RAINFALL...ACCOMPANIED BY SQUALLS...SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...17.2 N... 84.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.
FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA
$$
Tropical Storm Arlene Forms in Caribbean By JENNIFER KAY The Associated Press Thursday, June 9, 2005; 9:15 AM MIAMI -- Tropical Storm Arlene developed Thursday in the northwest Caribbean Sea, edging closer to western Cuba as the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Gulf Coast residents, including those in storm-battered Florida, were warned to beware. Arlene had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph after strengthening from a tropical depression that formed Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center in Miami said. Tropical storms have top sustained winds of 39 mph to 74 mph. At 8 a.m. EDT, the storm's center was about 190 miles south-southeast of the western tip of Cuba. It was moving north at about 8 mph, and this motion could bring the storm's center near western Cuba as early as Thursday night, forecasters said. Arlene was expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico by Friday, and residents from Florida to Louisiana were told to keep an eye on the tropical storm. "Our best estimate of the track possibilities are that anywhere from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle could expect the center to be approaching them by the middle of the weekend," hurricane specialist Richard Knabb said. Forecasters said Arlene was likely to remain a tropical storm, but Navy meteorologist Lt. Dave Roberts said there was an "outside shot" that the system could develop into a weak hurricane, depending on atmospheric conditions. The Cuban government has issued a tropical storm watch for the western province of Pinar Del Rio to the capital of Havana. The depression was causing heavy rains and squalls across the Cayman Islands and western and central Cuba. Forecasters warned that very heavy rains in Nicaragua and Honduras could cause flash floods and mud slides. Last year, the first named storm of the season was Tropical Storm Alex, which formed Aug. 1. It later became a hurricane and came within 9 miles of the Outer Banks, N.C. Within weeks, Florida was struck by Hurricane Charley, the first of four hurricanes to hit the state last season. It was followed by hurricanes Frances, Ivan and Jeanne. The four hurricanes damaged one out of every five homes in Florida. The storms caused about 130 deaths in the U.S. and are blamed for a total $22 billion in damage. Hurricane season began June 1 and ends Nov. 30.
No, I don't surf. Just determined to be cheerful this time around! Last season was a little depressing, with all the HUGE trees we had to cut up and haul off.
ping me please. :)
I've been waiting for you to show up! Done!
Arlene -- NOT FL but New Orleans/ Delta, then Memphis and Chi town
Arlene: Ideas and Estimates
And, guess what... new invest up already.
...Weather should worsen over western Cuba today as Arlene approaches...
at 11 am EDT...1500 UTC...a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Dry Tortugas.
At 11 am EDT...1500 UTC...the government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Cayman Islands.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for western Cuba from Pinar del Rio to city of Havana and Havana provinces...including the Isle of Youth.
Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico should closely monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the poorly-defined center of Tropical Storm Arlene was located near latitude 19.4 north...longitude 84.1 west or about 190 miles... 305 km...west of Grand Cayman and about 165 miles... 270 km...south-southeast of the western tip of Cuba.
Arlene is moving toward the north near 8 mph ...13 km/hr. This general motion is expected to continue with a gradual increase in forward speed during the next 24 hours...bringing the center near or over western Cuba tonight or early Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph... 65 km/hr...with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours. An Air Force plane will check Arlene this afternoon.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles...240 km to the north and east of the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb...29.59 inches.
Heavy rainfall...accompanied by squalls...is spreading across the Cayman Islands...as well as central and western Cuba and into the southern Florida Keys. Total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are possible in these areas in association with Arlene....mainly to the north and east of the center.
Repeating the 11 am EDT position...19.4 N... 84.1 W. Movement toward...north near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 40 mph. Minimum central pressure...1002 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 PM EDT.
Forecaster Avila/Knabb
See, that's why I always look forward to your posts! Even though they worry me. :-)
https://128.160.23.54/products/K10/caribbeank10.gif
Thanks... no need for worry, yet. ;-)
If that Atlantic Ridge pumps up as some are forecasting, it could be a long season. Everything has been speculation thus far, but it will be interesting to see what these systems do in the warmer than normal tropical atlantic.
I still find it interesting that 152 years of records do not carry a storm as far west as AL at landfall for another storm in the vicinity of Arlene this time of year.
Do either one of you remember the graphic from last year where you could check the storms on the African continent? It was fascinating. It seems like it was on the Weather Channel, but I can't find it.
Unless the Bermuda High fills in, I fear the East Coast is in for a lot more trouble. Last year it extended pretty far south, which is why Florida took so many hits.
---
"Charley is still a big question mark. A Florida hit appears likeliest at this point, but some things today are focusing my attention towards the FL Panhandle/Coastal Alabama area. So far, Charley has stayed further south than any computer models suggested. This will allow the storm to have less interaction with land, and it is quite possible that it will be a very strong storm (verging on Category 3/Major) once it gets into the Gulf of Mexico. The bigger the storm gets, the less it will be pulled along by the jet stream to the north. If it can gain enough steam to become a major hurricane, all bets are off. By late tomorrow evening, questions in regards to a Florida hit will be answered. This East Coast Trough (frontal system - jet stream buckle) is VERY strong for august and is actually much more typical once we get into Autumn in the US. If Charley does not manage to "create it's own weather", he will certainly go right up the east coast after the initial hit somewhere in the eastern GOM.
This following image is a historical map of where storms have gone that have been in Charley's neighborhood. If western Florida does get hit, this will be a very unusual August storm system."
It looks like it may try to weaken and push east by early-middle next week, for a time. Thus far, it has aligned itself further north than it did last yr... already had the first 90F here in the hills of CT, never had that last summer. If it comes back in a similar fashion in the future - or doesn't break down - you are likely correct... it would push tracks north, towards the SE coast before recurve.
I don't know if my area would survive a Cat 2 or greater. We've built up quite a bit with little regard to protection against big storms. The people who got nailed in Isabel are rebuilding with hurricane-proof standards, but there are still a lot of places that will go down quickly in 100 mph winds.
This is when I'm glad I live three blocks from the beach. Any closer, and I'd be even more worried.
That's one, but not the one I saw.
I remember it, I think I have it saved in links somewhere... this is all I found right now though.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/europe/movies/metir/metirjava.html
nope
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