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To: nwctwx
Great info--thanks. While I realize TSs are like the stock market, where historical performance is not indicative of future activity...

I still find it interesting that 152 years of records do not carry a storm as far west as AL at landfall for another storm in the vicinity of Arlene this time of year.


150 posted on 06/09/2005 9:08:07 AM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: NautiNurse; nwctwx

Do either one of you remember the graphic from last year where you could check the storms on the African continent? It was fascinating. It seems like it was on the Weather Channel, but I can't find it.


151 posted on 06/09/2005 9:10:01 AM PDT by Howlin (Up or down on Janice Brown!)
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To: NautiNurse
Historical records are good in some cases... but the current weather pattern doesn't match up with those tracks (save a 1906 type event). Last year, I posted the following in a Threat Matrix thread while conversing about the forming Charley... you will note that the historical map presented wasn't much help with that one.

---

"Charley is still a big question mark. A Florida hit appears likeliest at this point, but some things today are focusing my attention towards the FL Panhandle/Coastal Alabama area. So far, Charley has stayed further south than any computer models suggested. This will allow the storm to have less interaction with land, and it is quite possible that it will be a very strong storm (verging on Category 3/Major) once it gets into the Gulf of Mexico. The bigger the storm gets, the less it will be pulled along by the jet stream to the north. If it can gain enough steam to become a major hurricane, all bets are off. By late tomorrow evening, questions in regards to a Florida hit will be answered. This East Coast Trough (frontal system - jet stream buckle) is VERY strong for august and is actually much more typical once we get into Autumn in the US. If Charley does not manage to "create it's own weather", he will certainly go right up the east coast after the initial hit somewhere in the eastern GOM.

This following image is a historical map of where storms have gone that have been in Charley's neighborhood. If western Florida does get hit, this will be a very unusual August storm system."

More Here..

154 posted on 06/09/2005 9:16:57 AM PDT by nwctwx
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