Posted on 06/08/2005 3:59:21 PM PDT by Lonely Bull
000 WTNT31 KNHC 082059 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED JUN 08 2005
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR WESTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES... 375 KM... SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 315 MILES... 510 KM...SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AS IT ORGANIZES...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY IN RAINBANDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
HEAVY RAINFALL...ACCOMPANIED BY SQUALLS...SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...17.2 N... 84.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.
FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA
$$
I want to look into those permanently installed shutters, preferably the motorized ones. Maybe I could afford to install one a year for the next 30 years?
Lovely way to start the day.....................NOT
If you get on the waiting list today, you may get your first one installed in 30 years.
I recall hearing that BAM was the most accurate, and NOGAPS was the least. My recollection may be faulty, but NOGAPS typically deviates the most from the rest of the pack.
Man!!! I dread this time of year. My dad lives along the Mississippi Gulf Coast and is disabled. I hate to go through another year worrying about him! Dang!!
The NHC now has forecast verification stats on-line;
The report for 2004 is here (will need Adobe reader):
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pdfs/2004.pdf
The top models last year by a significant margin were actually two "models" that were the average of other models.....
Something called the FSU Superensemble which is the average of the tracks of a bunch of models (and the previous NHC forecast) was the absolute best...however, that one is not publicly avaliable. Actually, it takes so long to run NHC actually doesn't get it in time to actually forecast with it.
Basically as good as the FSU Superensemble is something called the GUNA...
It's the average of the GFDL, UKMET, NOGAPS, and GFS models. All of the components of it are publicly avaliable.
The most recent run of it has landfall on the AL/MS border; the next run is likely to have a landfall a tad west of there (as new components of it like the new GFDL have moved landfall a bit west).
The most reliable forecasting approach, in fact, is combining the most reliable models.
Those include the Global Forecast System, GFS, run by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction in Maryland; the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model, GFDL, run in Maryland and California; the United Kingdom Meteorological Office program, UKMET; and the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System, NOGAPS, run in California.
Meteorologists working on one of the most respected models - the GFDL - say it has outperformed all others so far this season, with a track error rate of about 140 miles three days out.
But typically more reliable than the programs is the official forecast by the National Hurricane Center, in which human beings interpret the various computer calculations.
"The subjective forecast beats every model," said Morris Bender, a research meteorologist who worked on the GFDL.
http://www.sptimes.com/2004/09/10/Weather/Where_will_Ivan_go.shtml
Well, I'll go ahead & call then...30 years from now, the kids will be out of college (I hope!!) and I can have the money saved up! :-)
I was feeling pretty lucky here (SE Virginia) for a long time, then Isabel hit in '03 and we all got a big dose of reality. Now the prevailing sentiment is "Wow, and that was just a cat 1. If it's any bigger than that around here, we're toast!"
Well, two of the lines, yellow & orange, are coming right at me. I wish now I hadn't used my plywood from Ivan for something else.
I understand--several of mine are warped.
Last year was a blur. I believe the only model available yesterday for this storm was the BAM.
Aruba lies out of the main path for most hurricanes and tropical storms...The island has not taken a direct hit in some 20 to 30 years...
Thanks for the info.
That's the sort of thing I want, but since the house is up on stilts, it's going to be a little harder to get the panels in place unless they're the roll-up kind, I think.
We also had these on the front, which would probably work on your place:
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