Posted on 05/27/2005 7:31:03 AM PDT by smoothsailing
May 27, 2005, 8:02 a.m.
Chafee's Choices
He's begging to be dumped.
By Timothy P. Carney & David Freddoso
If there was ever any doubt, Sen. Lincoln Chafee's vote Wednesday against the nomination of Priscilla Owen has made it clear that, save for leadership numbers games, conservatives would not be any worse off with a Democrat than with Chafee (R., R.I.) in the Senate. Rhode Island Republicans will have a chance next year to avert that painful choice only if a serious primary challenger emerges — and it could happen as soon as next week.
Getting Priscilla Owen onto the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals is a good thing, but all along the entire judicial battle has really been about the Supreme Court. Especially for the "values voters" who elected George W. Bush and the Republican Congress, this is the most important issue, as they see court after court impose its whim on American voters on issues such as homosexual marriage and abortion.
This is precisely where Chafee found Owen unacceptable. On Wednesday, Chafee's office confirmed that it was Owen's dissent in a 2000 parental-notification case that pushed Chafee to vote against her. In that Texas supreme-court case, the four-judge majority effectively nullified the state's parental-notification requirement for minors seeking abortions.
The Texas law required only that minors notify their parents — not even obtain consent — before procuring an abortion. The law also provided for a judicial bypass, allowing a judge to waive the notification requirement if the minor could show she was "mature and sufficiently well informed."
But in a dizzying opinion, the majority placed the burden of proof on the judge who would deny the bypass, requiring he prove the child was not "mature and sufficiently well informed." The majority also said it would be out of line for a judge or the state supreme court to set any standard for the meaning of those words. In effect, they made the judicial bypass nearly automatic for any minor who sought it. Priscilla Owen objected to this, and that made her unfit for the federal bench in the eyes of Lincoln Chafee.
If this is Chafee's litmus test on appellate judges, what will be his test on Supreme Court nominees? It's not just that Chafee has gone on the record repeatedly voting that Roe v. Wade was rightly decided and ought not be overturned. If Chafee's litmus test won't even abide parental notification, having him in the Senate undermines Bush's stated goal of appointing justices like Scalia and Thomas. If Bush means what he says about the courts — if this hasn't all been a show to mollify the religious Right — he'll throw Chafee overboard.
As Chafee looks forward to his November 2006 reelection campaign, Rhode Island Republicans are baffled by the sloppiness of his political operation — a fact that the fundraising numbers bear out entirely. Chafee's first-quarter figures were an absolute embarrassment for a sitting senator, even though they cover a time period when he expected the extremely popular Democrat Rep. James Langevin to challenge him. Chafee netted a pitiful $139,000, whereas both of his potential Democratic opponents raised more than twice as much by the end of March and are rapidly closing in on his $750,000 war chest.
A February 18 fundraiser for Chafee by Senate Majority Whip Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.) was disappointing in its sparse turnout, according to attendees. But even worse than the turnout was the campaign pitch his supporters were making at the event — the strained argument that Rhode Island cannot afford to send a congressional delegation composed entirely of Democrats to Washington. (Note to Chafee: It's worked pretty well for North Dakota.)
Neither Republicans nor Democrats appreciated Chafee's antics regarding his own vote in the 2004 presidential election. After much public consideration, he decided to write in President Bush's father on the ballot rather than vote for Bush himself. In doing so, he was effectively betting on a Kerry victory. His occasional public flirtations with the idea of a party switch have not made him look like much of a leader, either. Will President Bush forget about this public betrayal?
If he chooses to run (and our sources say he will), moderate Cranston mayor Stephen Laffey (R) will be an easy choice for conservatives over Chafee in next year's September primary. The popular two-term mayor of a thoroughly Democratic town, Laffey remains cagey about his intentions for next year. But his ambition is legendary to those who know him (smaller only than his ego) and he has to date resisted pleas from the White House, the National Republican Senatorial Committee, and RNC Chairman Ken Mehlman to swear off the race. As one wag told us of Laffey's plans to enter the race, "I'm pretty sure he's waiting until he can be the only thing in the newspaper."
In some ways the conservative label does not fit Laffey well. Although he says he is pro-life, he recently described Sen. Hillary Clinton's attempt to position herself on the middle ground on abortion as "reasonable." But even in this, Laffey is substantially more conservative than Chafee, and he may actually have a better chance in the general election to keep the seat in GOP hands.
At the very least, the White House cannot afford to send the wrong message and reward Chafee's serial disloyalty. Majority Leader Bill Frist and President Bush have recently indicated they are serious about getting conservative justices on the bench, and especially on the Supreme Court. If they mean it, they won't lift a finger for Chafee.
— David Freddoso is a reporter for the Evans-Novak Political Report. Tim Carney is a Phillips Fellow and a freelance journalist.
http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/carney_freddoso200505270802.asp
Meanwhile, make the purging of the party Senate caucus easier by electing actual pro-life, Republicans to replace Demonrats: Baucus in Montana, Dayton in Minnesota, Landrieu in Louisiana, William Nelson in Florida, Pryor and Lincoln in Arkansas, Sarbanes (elect Steele) in Maryland, Durbin in Ilinois (easier than normally thought with DemoGuv Blago at 34% approval and on the same ticket), Harkin in Iowa, Kohl in Wisconsin (big $ necessary to match his but run one of the top drawer but surplus gubernatorial candidates for an ideal ticket, Bayh in Indiana, Bingamon in New Mexico, Salazar in Colorado, Dingy Harry Reid in Nevada (he is DemoLeader and thus eligible for defeat), Dorgan and Conrad in North Dakota (run immensely popular current governor and for other seat former Governor Sinner/spend mucho bucks and get both seats because it is worth it), Johnson in South Dakota (do this by saving Ellsworth Air Force Base and making sure that Johnson gets NO credit). That is 17 seats that are winnable. Max: 72 seats GOP at that point.
Run Rick Santorum for governor of Pennsylvania (electing him allows appointment of Melissa Hart when Spector dies since the Eastern PA seat would be held by Casey and also gives us a big leg up on transferring PA to red state status in 2008 presidential race since Santorum is a natural born organizer who will do better on the ground in state than he can in DC. If Santorum is ever going to be a presidential nominee, he will NEED executive experience. If Casey votes anti-gun or pro-tax or slips a smidgeon from his father's position on pro-life, Santorum goes after young Casey in 2012 and leaves a hopefully reliable Lt. Governor in the Governor's ofice to carry on.) Run former Congressman Tuomey against Casey next year. Tuomey claims to be a late convert to pro-life but ghe is the head of the Club for Growth. Maybe Pennsylvania would benefit from a blowout on Casey socialism vs. Tuomey capitalism, a fight in which Tuomey is far better equipped in competence and knowledge. No ethnic edge since both are Irish. If we give this seat to Casey in exchange for the foregoing advantages and future considerations, reduce GOP potential to 71.
Replace Lindsay Graham with an American Republican with spine and backbone and make him a poster boy for what happens to party traitors. South Carolina is the single safest state for such a maneuver and there are plenty of front line candidates of senatorial stature. Crush Graham. Still potential 71.
Replace Warner with (see profile of new South Carolina Senator). This treasonous (to the GOP) elitist scum should have been politically exterminated for running a third party mushball pseudoRepublican March Coleman to drain off votes that would have made Ollie North a senator. Then, he should have been rubbed out for opposing North's attempt to be elected to Congress. Virginia is reasonably safe although Governor Warner might muddy the waters. Worst case scenario: The admittedly Democratic Warner replaces the phony "GOP" Warner in the Senate. Still potential 70 with worst case scenario.
That leaves us to deal with three categories of RINOs: The McCain Seven (actually reduced by two: see Graham and Warner above); Voinovich and anyone lining up with him on Bolton and not identified in the other two categories; the natural born unapologetic (usually ancestral) RINOs not among the McCain Seven. Still potential 70.
McCain Seven: McCain is becoming a serious problem. He needs to be reminded that, when he was a hero pilot, he was valued for teamwork and not for self-serving maverickism or for leading others to do their own thing. He may go third party for president when Iowa and South Carolina convince him that strabbing pro-life judges is no way to win GOP nominations. If he goes third party for president and becomes the Ross Perot of 2008, then Mrs. Arkansas Antichrist will be the Slick Willie of 2008. At that point, I will not continue to be impressed by McCain's stay in the Hanoi Hilton as a political credential. He will the be personally responsible for every abortion thereafter. Let him stay in the Senate but punish his pals. Still potentioal 70.
Not much can be done as to Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins of Maine. Organize the state by forming ideological interest groups: pro-life, pro-gun, anti-tax. these two will reject pro-life but will need pro-gun and anti-tax supporters. Interlink pro-life with pro-gun and anti-tax groups and press these two on pro-life at the margins (partial birth abortion, parental notification, parental approval, sex selection, etc.) and to use party loyalty as an excuse to support Bush judges particularly for the SCOTUS. Also link veterans' groups, military voters, law enforcement, hunters, fisherman, home schoolers, Catholics (hard-liners), Knights of Columbus, evangelicals, pentecostals, French Canadians (often Democrat but always social conservative) and recruit capable high school and college students and retirees. Call this the Maine option. Use this on Chafee as well as fruitless as the effort may be in order to organize for a future succession to Chaffee and even Jack Reed. Primary Reed with a pro-lifer to identify good guys in verrrrrry Democratic Rhode Island.
DeWine is generally a very good guy. He is a solid prolifer. I am less sure of him on other important issues: guns, taxes, Bolton, war, etc. Provisionally, give him a pass since Ohio is a sensitive state at the moment. Get Ken Blackwell in as governor to replace Spineless Taft and then work on the senatorial delegation. Still potential 70.
Voinovich is losing it as anyone should concede who saw his shameless emotional crying jag in his speech against Bolton. The thought that a senate seat once held by either the noble John Bricker or the immortal Robert Taft, the Elder, is now held by this foreign policy spaghetti spine is sickening. Ordinarily his consistent support for pro-life should get Voinovich a pass but not when he has clearly lost his mind. Fortunately, Voinovich suggested that he ONLY ran for re-election last time to (sniffle) save his children and (blubber) grandchildren from being (incinerated by nuke or some such fantasy) (boo hooo). Elect Blackwell governor and have a responsible and emotionally stable and reliable actual conservative in waiting to be appointed on Voinovich's being hauled off to a mental hospital (sniffle). Blackwell can also hold Ohio for the GOP in 2008 as he did in 2004. How about 25% of Ohio's black vote next time after 16% this time. With Blackwell, much is possible.
Arlen Spector is something of a natural born RINO. BUT without him Clarence Thomas would be practicing law somewhere. He got his chairmanship of Judiciary. Now let's see if he performs for it by turning the SCOTUS on abortion with as many approved nominations as necessary. Kyl will robably take over as chairman of Judiciary in reasonably short order since Spector will probably die soon of that brain tumor. Hopefully, Pennsylvania will have a GOP governor then of reliable conservative ideology. Even so, when Arlen has been (rarely) good he has been very good and we may miss him when he is gone. I think I am the only conservative in the USA with any regard for Spector. He never promised to be a conservative. He was such a good lawyer that he took a step down to become a Senator.
I am having difficulty remembering any other full-fledged ancestral RINOs since Liddy Dole and Lamar Alexander are behaving better than I had expected.
70 is veto-proof not just filibuster-proof.
RINOs: Hang 'em High!
Chafee's main problem is not that he's a RINO, but that he always looks like a total wimp. Somehow, Olympia Snowe or John McCain carry out the RINO routine without looking as idiotic as Chafee.
I remember when he made the comment -- was hoping we gained enough seats so we didn't have to depend on the loser. Now with the extra seats he is staying for now -- last time I heard -- he said he would only switch if it made the Democrats in power.
If I was in charge of the caucus, I would throw him out of any caucus meetings because it is obvious he is not a Republican.
This is an odd sentence. When did Pres. Bush and Sen. Frist indicate "they are serious about getting conservative justices on the bench?" That's news to me.
I mean, come on, you really don't expect Bush & Frist to indicate that they are serious about getting liberal activist judges on the bench, do you. LOL!
I'm in Pennsylvania, we have Specter.
Better than Chafee,but believe me, I feel your RINO pain! :^)
I don't forsee that happening, and as a result (and you people don't know how hard this is for me to say) I will NOT vote for either of these guys again. I will leave "U.S. Senator" blank.
I've defended these fools in the past for their pro-life and pro-convict-Clinton votes, but you can't rest on your laurels forever. This is now, and we have real challenges, and these guys are flat unreliable.
The one thing that I remember most about Ronald Reagan was his "Speak no ill of a fellow Republican." line. Does anyone think Reagan was talking about Conservative Republicans when he said that? He was not. He always followed that statement by saying someone who votes with you 70 percent of the time is not your enemy. A person who votes against you seventy percent of the time is your enemy. Reagan was clearly talking about RINOs.
The fact is there are about 20 states that are clearly liberal. The most we can hope for in those states is to elect a RINO. We will rarely ever get RINOs in Liberal States. Our problem is not electing RINOs in Liberal or Centrist states, it is allowing Liberals and DINOS to be elected in Conservative States.
Ohio was the most contested state in 2004. It is not surprising that Ohio has two RINO senators. The other option in Ohio is two DINO senators.
Our problem is Liberal and RINO senators who have been elected from Conservative states. West Virginia is now a conservative state. Bush had no trouble winning it twice. He had a lot less trouble winning West Virginia twice than he did winning Ohio twice.
But we have two liberal Senators from West Virginia. If we focused our efforts on getting conservative senators elected from conservative states we would not have a problem in the Senate.
In 2004 Bush won 31 states while Kerry won 19. If the senate were so proportioned the Republicans would have 62 Senators and the Democrats 38.
If we had Conservative Senators in all the conservative states we would have about 54 Conservative senators and about 8 RINOs.It would not matter a whit what the RINOs did. The conservatives would prevail.
The problem is not to replace the RINOS. That will not happen unless we replace them with DINOs. What we need to do is concentrate on electing Conservative Senators in all Conservative States.
There is zero reason for Lindsay Graham to be the Senator from south Carolina. South Carolina is a conservative states. There are tons of reasons that we have a Chaffee elected in Rhode Island. Rhode Island is a liberal state.
We need to understand where we can win with conservatives and make Darn sure that conservatives get the nomination. We need to elect Conservatives from Conservative states. If we spend our resources and efforts where conservatives can win, our problems go away in a couple of election cycles.
As long as we elect people like Lindsay Graham in a Conservative state like South Carolina we deserve the problems we get. The Republican party needs to find someone to run against Lindsay in 2008. I would think that any real man could beat Lindsay Graham in South Carolina.
Now look what you did! You brought Voiny to tears.
Now, the last mailing I got from Blackwell has him up in the polls double digits over Montgomery and the other guy (name slips my mind), but he still needs $$$.
Yeah. He struck me as a space cadet when I saw him on C-SPAN. Full of "ers" and "uhs" and barely able to talk coherently - all over the map. He looked like he was going to trip out at any moment.
There were a whole bunch of RINOs who voted for the judiciary compromise and killed the constitutional option. What that says to me is not so much that Collins and Snowe were at fault, but that the Senate Leadership was not doing its job.
Note that Collins and Snow both voted "Yea" to confirm Priscilla Owens. Chafee was the lone Republican to vote "Nay." He couldn't even stick to the deal he had made the day before. The Collins and Snow votes were not actually needed to confirm Owens, but the leadership must have told them that in light of all the intense controversy over this issue, they needed every Republican vote. Chaffee obviously refused to play ball.
The Mainers I know are all decent people, but for whatever reason they seem to vote for extreme socialists. The state government in Maine is far more socialist even than the government in Vermont.
She barely won against Jindal and only after a last ditch roundup by the black community for voters. Vitter won the majority of the vote in '04, which isn't usual in the state. Usually they go to run offs but not this time. Mary can read the tea leaves.
That's true, but it doesn't sell magazine copies! The "Peanut Gallery" has to get in their words of non-wisdom into print in between each election, after all.
When we've got 61 solid Conservative senators in office, then we can take on our lingering RINO's. Until that point, our political capital is best spent dethroning Democrats instead of eating our own.
I think your analysis is correct.
I am particularly angry with her and a number of others who claim to be Catholic (as I am) while voting to kill babies.
Well stated.
Did you weight the votes in accordance with their importance?
>>>There was a debate of this in the past and the other side of the issue is that maybe the numbers say that but that RINOs betray us on the "important" votes. Of course importance varies from person to person and so mathematics remains the only valid evaluation criterion.
RINOs are preferable to Dems. Our emotions say this is not so, >>>>but the math disagrees.
That's the original post above. And your comment:
>> Did you weight the votes in accordance with their importance?
>>
Given I already addressed it, I can only reply, yes. Those matters important to me were weighted more than those important to someone else.
Only math tells the tale.
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